29th Jun - Weekender: The World, Markets, Finnish

Leif Salmén Seura 13.6.2013:

“41-vuotias Katainen ei ole visas eikä osaava, hän on vain nuori ja innokas...Suomesta on tullut hallintokiimainen konsultokratia, jossa byrokratia syö yritysten alkuperäiset tehtävät...Arhinmäki on Kataisen ja Urpilaisen hyödyllinen idiootti.”

”Lipponen ajoi pääministerinä valtaeliitin ja liike-elämän asiaa. Suomi vietiin Euroopan unioniin ja rahaliitto Emuun. Lipponen liittoutui valtiovarainministerinsä Sauli Niinistön kanssa. Sen seurauksena Suomi on suurissa vaikeuksissa ja euroalue sosiaalisen hädän ja hajoamisen tilanteessa...On vain ajan kysymys, milloin euroalue halvaantuu ja hajoaa. Urpilainen ei ymmärrä tästä yhtään mitään.”

29th Jun - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.  US Payrolls and ISM manufacturing, the ECB’s meeting are the main events, but not much is expected market-wise from these. Dull holidays?

28th Jun - US Open

28th Jun - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here.

The week that was: better-than expected monthly macro data from Europe and U.S., but the U.S. Q1 GDP was revised down. Fed officials spent the week soft-talking after the previous week’s FOMC.

In Europe, a scandal in Ireland: Banksters knew what they were doing, and fooled the government and the central bank. In Italy, losses originating from derivatives deal that were made during Draghi’s term as the head of the Bank of Italy have become public. European leaders have discussed the banking union from Wednesday, and the Cyprus-template seems to be the choice.

China’s credit crunch is easing: the central bank turned the liquidity taps off, to kick the shadow banking sector – and hopefully the lesson has been learnt.

The Bank for International Settlements pushed a strong message against central banks’ balance sheet expansion. So what are the countries to do next, go to deflation? Debt haircuts to enable a new start?

28th Jun - EU Open

27th Jun - US Close: Banking union decaf, Cyprus, Fed misunderstood XIV

27th Jun - US Open: Confident but not lending Europe

27th Jun - EU Open: Busy Calendar

26th Jun - US Close: GDP revised down, Finnish

26th Jun - US Open: Italian Scandal

26th Jun - EU Open

25th Jun - US Close: More on Fed, plenty of US macro

25th Jun - US Open: Irish Scandal

25th Jun - EU Open

24th Jun - US Close: More BIS, China and Fed

24th Jun - US Open: BIS, China

More on BIS and China.

24th Jun - EU Open: BIS annual, German IFO ahead, bear day

The BIS came out with their annual report, and called central banks to end their massive liquidity creation - and other participants to start doing their share of the work for the recovery. China's interbank markets remain stressed, and the only data point of note today is the German Ifo business survey. A hawkish Fed member speaks in the afternoon, and only weeks ago he compared the QE to monetary cocaine. Sounds like a bearish day.

22nd Jun - Weekender: Markets, Other, Off-Topic, Finnish

Weekend linkfest to markets, econ, players, and off-topic and Finnish articles.

22nd Jun - Weekender: Credit Guest: Singin' in the Rain

Macronomics punches the living daylights out of the credit markets with another weekly long-form guest post.

22nd Jun - Weekender: The World

China's 'crisis', European summits on who, how and when takes the banking losses, and the Fed Watch updated.

22nd Jun - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

It is going to be a dull week on the macro number front: German IFO index on Monday, US durable goods on Tuesday are the main events. I guess the Asian interbank crisis, US Fed tapering and the traditional euro crisis will dominate the headlines. Thursday’s business and consumer survey from Europe is also bound to disappoint. I will update the missing links as soon as they are available. Next up, big weekender posts and updating my 'Fed Watch'-special.

21st Jun - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here.

21st Jun - US Open

21st Jun - EU Open: Midsummer Madness

It's a holiday in Finland, and the weather is nice. So perfect time for me to get some work done in a deserted city and keep blogging light for the day.

Today: more on China, Europe's summits have agreed to use the ESM to bail out banks. My guess on the number of drowned people in Finland during the holiday weekend? 10 (ten).

20th Jun - US Close: Chinese join the crisis

20th Jun - US Open

20th Jun - EU Open: Bad China, European PMIs ahead

Bad PMI from China, and markets are jinxed - the central bank seems to have closed the liquidity gates and this comes at a very, very bad time. French PMI just suprised to the upside, so expect the German and euro area numbers to improve as well. But given the Chinese troubles and the Fed's tapering, perhaps the European positive surprise will remain temporary?

19th Jun - US Close: Post-Fedal Syndrome

Note that everything Fed-related is in my previous post.

19th Jun - Special: Fed Watch

One of the most anticipated FOMC meetings concludes today, and the big questions are if, when and how would the Federal Reserve start tapering its asset purchase programs.

First the critical feeds and material links, followed by articles and commentaries (from latest to newest). I will update the post during the next couple of days. Last update 22-June 09:00 GMT.

19th Jun - US Open

19th Jun - EU Open

See the previous post for a huge linkfest, and note the latest monthlies from Danske. I'll do a FED Watch special later today, so stay tuned.

18th Jun - US Close: Fed, plenty of Finnish, bad Europe

G-8 went, no-one noticed, but perhaps tax evasion will become even harder in the future. Kind of fits with the possible bail-ins coming to Europe - and probably elsewhere as well. US FOMC seems to be on the top of everybody's list. European news getting again nasty - I have a hard time with the view that it would be Europe's turn to surprise positively over the U.S. - perhaps at some point, but not yet, and not in the current state?

18th Jun - US Open (just the regulars)

18th Jun - EU Open

17th Jun - US Close: More Fed-previews

17th Jun - US Open: G8 before the Fed

17th Jun - EU Open: FedFedFed....

16th Jun - Weekender: Markets, Econ, Off-Topic, Finnish

Here’s this weekend’s second proper linkfest, covering Markets, G8, Economics, Intelligence and Off-Topics. Also, select Finnish-language articles for my local readers.

16th Jun - Credit Guest: Lucas critique

Macronomics is back with another credit post. We missed you.

16th Jun - Schedule for the Week

Times are GMT. For Helsinki, add three hours.

16th Jun - Weekender: The World

IMF finished the Article IV consultations on US, and said what we already knew: solve the political mess, stop the austerity, do not taper the Federal Reserve's asset purchase programs too early. In Asia, Abenomics is heavily debated. The Economist had a special briefing on the role of Germany in Europe.

15th Jun - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

G8-summit, Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, Japan’s Abe holds two speeches, and has bilateral meetings with Germany’s Merkel, Europe has bond auctions, Greece downgraded to emerging market status, IMF publishes its latest review on Spain, Europe gets the flash Markit purchasing manager indices.

Additionally, I expect rumors from the German constitutional court’s hearings on the ECB’s OMT-program, Portugal stated it would be interested in applying for the OMT, markets are nervous.

Own feeling? Markets up before the Fed, down after the Fed.

15th Jun - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here.

14th Jun - US Open: Massive links

14th Jun - EU Open

13th Jun - US Close

13th Jun - US Open

Thought of the Day: Head of the Ifo Institute Hans-Werner Sinn also gave evidence and suggested the OMT could eventually total €3.5trn. He also argued that the ECB engages in “regional fiscal policy” and that the Central Bank’s OMT programme is basically “a free insurance for investors when a state goes bankrupt”.

13th Jun - EU Open: Nikkei rots

12th Jun - US Close: Karlsruhe and mixed

12th Jun - US Open

12th Jun - EU Open

11th Jun - US Close

11th Jun - US Open: Court Day 1

11th Jun - EU Open: I'm 41 today

Damn it feels a good to be a gangster.

10th Jun - US Close

10th Jun - US Open

10th Jun - EU Open: German court week

Market-wise, the Japanese situation is probably the most import moving part in the Matrix. Medium-term, the demands from the IMF to restructure Greek debts and the expected conditional "Yes, but" from the German Constitutional Court on the ECB's OMT-program are the most important ones.

9th Jun - Weekender: Linkfest

Europe's half-hearted banking union, Fed's QE-tapering, ECB playing tough for the political needs of Germany (the coming elections and the German Constitutional Court's hearings next week)

8th Jun - Special: US Payrolls

8th Jun - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

7th Jun - US Open

7th Jun - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here.

7th Jun - EU Open: Confused markets wait US payrolls

6th Jun - US Close: Don't Draghi and Drive

Quote of the Day: So the ECB is going down the 1990’s BoJ route. They are talking about price stability with Unemployment at 12.2% and rising. – Global Macro Trading

6th Jun - US Open: ECB Press Ahead

6th Jun - EU Open: The IMF Confession Pt 2

5th Jun - US Close: IMF Confesses

5th Jun - US Open

5th Jun - EU Open

Updates coming up late today (other commitments, sorry)

4th Jun - US Close (more Greco-Finnish madness)

4th Jun - US Open

4th Jun - EU Open

3rd Jun - US Close: Bad US data

USDJPY's dip below 100 was interesting - still within the upward trend channel, probably a good time to buy. The overall USD weakness was driven by the lousy ISM index, which immediately pushed expectations of an immediate Fed's QE-tapering further out in time. Couple of good ones on Yurrup by Münchau and Krugman.

3rd Jun - US Open

3rd Jun - Credit Guest: Goodhart's law

This week's credit guest post by Macronomics - thank you M., may I have another?

3rd Jun - EU Open

2nd Jun - European Unemployment

24 months of continuous increase

2nd Jun - Weekender: Linkfest

2nd Jun - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here.

1st Jun - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.