Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
G8-summit, Federal
Reserve’s FOMC meeting, Japan’s Abe holds two speeches, and has bilateral
meetings with Germany’s Merkel, Europe has bond auctions, Greece downgraded to
emerging market status, IMF publishes its latest review on Spain, Europe gets
the flash Markit purchasing manager indices.
Additionally, I expect
rumors from the German constitutional court’s hearings on the ECB’s OMT-program, Portugal stated it would be interested in applying for
the OMT, markets are nervous.
Own feeling? Markets
up before the Fed, down after the Fed.
You can get update
notifications by following MoreLiver
on Twitter or Facebook. Contact me with your questions or suggestions.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
FRIDAY CLOSE
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
LAST WEEK
Prices
Weekly Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
US market portrait – Portfolio
Probe
Europe: Stocks Drop Fourth Week-In-A-Row; Worst In 12
Months – ZH
US: Stocks Slide, VIX
Ends At Highest Weekly Close In 2013 – ZH
The Economist’s Weeklies:
The Weekender – beyondbrics
/ FT
The Weekender – alphaville
/ FT
Succinct summation of week’s events – The
Big Picture
Week in Review: Waiting to Be King of Goldman – DealBook
/ NYT
In the glow of
television, many messages. | The stimulus comment that agitated traders. | To
billionaire’s failed deal, add rebuke from S.E.C. | Trader covets Goldman
office where a friend is sitting tight. | In a shift, interest rates are
rising.
NEXT WEEK
Schedule for Week – Calculated
Risk
The key event this
week will be the FOMC statement and press conference on Wednesday. No changes in policy are expected, but Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to reiterate that rates will stay low for a
long long time. There are three key housing reports that will be released this
week, housing starts on Tuesday, homebuilder confidence survey on Monday, and
existing home sales on Thursday. For manufacturing, the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed June surveys will be released this week. For prices, CPI will be released on Tuesday.
A week to reckon with – MacroScope
/ Reuters
G8 leaders’ summit,
Fed, Abe, European bond auctions, Greece, IMF reviews Spain.
Economic Calendar – Handelsbanken
(pdf)
Podcast: MoneyBeat Week – WSJ
What Fed Should Do at
Next Week’s Meeting
S&P 500 Earnings Week Ahead – Reuters
Wall Street Week Ahead – Reuters
Stock investors eager
to hear from the Federal Reserve about its plans for continuing economic
stimulus may get some soothing words from the U.S. central bank next week.
Markets wait for big
Ben to chime in
(video) Asia Week Ahead: – Reuters
(video) US Week Ahead – Reuters
Investors to dissect
every Fed word
Weekly Preview – BNY
Mellon
Noted Fed watcher, Jon
Hilsenrath is not alone in feeling that Ben Bernanke may look to reassure over
the Fed’s measured approach to policy tightening.
Weekly Focus – Danske
Bank (pdf)
US: The Fed meeting
gives Ben Bernanke an opportunity to guide market expectations. Markit PMI will
provide new data on the extent of the soft patch. Euro area: main release next
week is flash PMIs for June. We expect improvements in both service and
manufacturing PMIs. China: There have recently been conflicting signals
from PMIs, so the flash estimate for HSBC manufacturing PMI for June is key to
watch.
Week Ahead: 15-21 June 2013 – Nordea
(pdf)
US: The FOMC meeting is coming up next week and recent article by Jon
Hilsenrath suggests markets may have gone ahead of themselves in recent rates
sell-off. Euro area: PMIs from Germany, France and the Euro zone is on the agenda, with ZEW
as an appetizer.
Global Macro Views – Danske
Bank (pdf)
US: economy is working its way through a soft patch due to substantial
fiscal tightening. Euro area: finally showing signs of improvement in hard data.
China: continues to disappoint and we have revised our
growth forecast down
Weighing the Week
Ahead: Will the Fed Change Course? – A Dash of Insight
FX Positioning and Technical Outlook – Marc
to Market
Downside Risk for the
Dollar?
Yield Forecast Update: Volatility
is back – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Discussions about the
Fed scaling down asset purchases later in the year have fuelled a sell-off in
the core bond markets and led to a rise in volatility over the past month. European
markets have not been shielded from the increase in rates, despite a weak economic
outlook and despite the ECB keeping its options open for further easing.
Weekly Credit Update – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Market-maker ability
and willingness to absorb the current sell-off in cash credit is limited and consequently
secondary market liquidity is falling and spreads are moving wider at a decent
pace. Particularly the high yield market has corrected and the Crossover index
has widened some 50 bp in just two weeks, currently trading around 450 bp. Cash
HY and subordinated bank paper have also experienced meaningful price
corrections as of late.
EMEA Weekly – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Over the past three or
four weeks we have seen a very sharp sell-off in Emerging Markets
– equities, fixed income
and FX. Even though there are country-specific events such as the recent
political unrest in Turkey, there is no doubt that the primary trigger for the
EM sell-off has been concerns about the outlook for monetary policy – in
particular in the US and Japan and to a lesser extent the euro zone.
Emerging Markets Calendar – Handelsbanken
(pdf)
China's HSBC PMI for the manufacturing sector likely remained subdued in June
in the midst of tight liquidity in the banking system. Inflationary pressures
remain high in Brazil, but moderating food prices are providing some relief.
Emerging: Week Ahead –
beyondbrics / FT
IEA gas report, Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro
receives audience with Pope Francis in Rome, and the Iranian
presidential election second round. Plus the main economic events:
HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI, Russian GDP, and Central Bank of
Turkey holds it’s monetary policy committee meeting.
EU Agenda: Trade and tax issues – euobserver
EU-US trade relations
will take centre stage at a meeting of eight of the world's wealthiest nations
in Northern
Ireland on Monday.
EU Week Ahead: June 17 – 21 – WSJ
Top EU officials will
travel to Northern Ireland for a G8 meeting and EU finance ministers will
try to sign off on a long-awaited framework for shuttering failing banks.
CALENDARS
Economic Calendar – Forexpros
Economic Calendar – fxstreet.com
Monthly Economic
Calendar – fxstreet.com
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar – europa.eu
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet