Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Markets Expected to Open
Stronger – WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Today’s update on the
UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI will be closely watched for signs of revival in
this sector. The US trade balance is also scheduled for release and USDJPY remains the
week's main clue for (re)assessing doubts about “Abenomics”.
European markets are
likely to open higher Tuesday. With a light economic calendar today, investors
would keep an eye on the EU PPI which is likely to show a slower pace of annual
rise in April while the US might post a wider trade deficit in April.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
We will continue
to scrutinise Fed speeches for signs of an imminent scale down of Fed’s asset purchases...If
UK PMI for the construction sector also comes out stronger than expected, it
will
add further
ammunition to the argument that additional easing will not be needed in the UK.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
USA:sta lisää
pettymyksiä * Syöksyn hidastuminen pitää EKP:n asemissa * EURUSD korkeimilleen
yli kolmeen viikkoon
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkinoille eilen suotuisia lukuja ostopäällikköindekseistä,
USA:n hidastuminen tukee FED:n elvytystä ja euroalueen paraneminen
pienentää globaalin talouden riskejä.
USA:n rahapoliittisen elvytyksen kannalta perjantain työllisyyslukemat entistäkin mielenkiintoisempia. Osakefutuurit ylös, indikoiden nousuavausta OMX HEX:iin.
EUROPE
IMF halves German 2013 growth forecast – The
Telegraph
Germany's 2013 growth prospects have been cut in half by the International
Monetary Fund, as it warned that the outlook for Europe's strongest economy could worsen if a eurozone
recovery fails to materialise.
If there is no real
pressure to finally clean up the banking sector and push through the sale of
state assets, the flow dynamics may keep worsening public debt, government
deficits and bad bank loans. Now that the EU has loosened fiscal targets, it’s
hard to see where the pressure will come from.
Reviving a European democracy – Reuters
Before they helped to
create a world of rising prosperity, Europeans developed two powerful streams
of political thought that ultimately allowed for the peaceful governance of
their societies.
Chart Of The Day: The Turkish Uprising – ZH
Stratfor: The largest
protests, in Istanbul and Izmir, brought out predominantly young protesters in
the tens of thousands. These protests will be highly significant if they grow
to the hundreds of thousands, include a wider demographic and geographically
extend to areas with traditionally strong support for the ruling party.
Defiant Erdogan
denounces riots in Turkish cities – Reuters
PM Erdogan sees
himself leading 'Turkish Spring' – Reuters
Turkish protesters
accuse media of ignoring unrest – Reuters
Slideshow: Turkish
protests escalate – Reuters
UNITED STATES
More Tapering Talk – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Fed is looking to pull
back on asset purchases. They expect the
data to give them room to do so.
Let 'er rip, Mr Bernanke – Free
exchange / The Economist
Better American
fundamentals should make monetary policy more effective and give the Fed more
room to ease, but the Fed instead seems to want to use them as an excuse to
tighten (or to passively accept tightening). That's not good.
Fiscal Headwinds: Is the Other Shoe About to
Drop? – S.F.
FED
Federal fiscal policy
during the recession was abnormally expansionary by historical standards. However,
over the past 2½ years it has become unusually contractionary as a result of
several deficit reduction measures passed by Congress. During the next three
years, we estimate that federal budgetary policy could restrain economic growth
by as much as 1 percentage point annually beyond the normal fiscal drag that
occurs during recoveries.
ASIA
RBA Holds Key Rate at Record-Low 2.75% After
Aussie Weakens – BB
Australia’s central bank left its benchmark interest
rate at a record low, saying it has room to cut further and judged that the
nation’s exchange rate remains high even after the biggest monthly tumble since
2011.
OTHER
The most depressing jobs chart in a long time – Wonkblog
/ WP
Since 2007, the ILO
notes, there's been a big trade-off between more employment and higher job
quality in most developed countries.
Behavioral Portfolio Management: An Alternative
to Modern Portfolio Theory – CFA
Institute
FINNISH
Sasi
kertoi pelostaan: Tämä voi viedä Suomelta Kreikka-vakuudet – IL
Eduskunnan valtiovarainvaliokunnan
puheenjohtaja Kimmo Sasi (kok) pitää mahdollisena, että euromaat joutuvat
antamaan anteeksi Kreikan lainoja.
Suomen
Pankin ex-johtaja: Euro uppoaa kuin uppotukki – KL
Europeli poikki mahdollisimman pian.
Rahoituskonsultti, Suomen Pankin johtajistoon kuulunut Heikki Koskenkylä
ehdottaa Suomen eroa euroalueesta.