Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Euro Becomes the Port in a
Storm – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Strong Nikkei Close Should
Help Local Stocks – WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
The market will be
eager to learn if the recent gains in Eurozone exports rolled on in today’s
trade report for April. Later, US data provides fresh perspective on
manufacturing’s recent weakness and the housing market’s resilience.
Market Preview: Eurozone trade balance in focus– TradingFloor
European markets are
likely to open mostly lower Monday. With a light economic calendar today,
investors will eye the EU trade balance data for April. Also, the US NAHB
housing market index will be keenly tracked for hints on the housing sector.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Interesting week,
with FOMC meeting Wednesday and Flash PMI in China and the euro area on
Thursday. Today’s US Empire index will be the first regional business survey
released for June.
It has been falling
three months in a row to -1.43, reflecting weaker industrial activity. Today
and tomorrow, a G8 Summit.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Pelko palaa
pätkittäin * Fed jättää vaihtoehdot avoimiksi kesän yli * Pelot levottomuuksien
lisääntymisestä Lähi-idässä nostivat öljyn hintaa
EUROPE
The Plight Of Europe's
Banking Sector, Its €650 Billion State Guarantee, And The "Urgent
Need" To Recapitalize – ZH
Scandi markets ahead: Norges Bank monetary
policy meeting in focus – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Russian involvement in
Cyprus was widely recognised during the acute phase
of the most recent EZ crisis. This column argues that some of this is driven by
corruption-linked money laundering. Using official Russian statistics, the
authors estimate a standard model of FDI location to identify usual patterns
related to nations with lax anti-money laundering measures such as Cyprus and the BVI. Funds from such nations were
biased towards locating investments in the most corrupt Russian regions
compared to a group of genuine foreign investors.
UNITED STATES
Housing, Inflation and Fed, Oh My! – WSJ
For most investors,
the two-day Fed policy meeting is this week's main event. Policymakers have
said future decisions will be data-driven, and this week brings new readings on
factory activity, housing and inflation.
FOMC Projections Preview: Disinflation Watch – Calculated
Risk
I expect no change to
policy at this meeting, but a slight downgrade to the economic projections -
and some concern about inflation (but probably not enough to increase the size
of QE3 purchases).
FX Comment: taper…or holiday? – Nordea
Bernanke almost has no
choice here but to act dove on June 19th FOMC meeting – or else, none of us can
peacefully go on summer holiday… You know the worry is on high level when you
hear IMF prompting to keep up the QE in large for now while continuing
preparation to exit “smoothly”.
Will Fed Bring a Breather From Yen’s
Roller-Coaster Ride? – WSJ
f the FOMC meet adds
momentum to talk of a quantitative easing exit or fails to clarify its
position, that will likely push the dollar even further down against the yen,
putting traders on another lap of their roller-coaster ride.
Chart that seems to violate key principles of
money creation – Sober
Look
A clear divergence in
trends of the total loans and leases on US banks' balance sheets and the broad
money supply measure (M2). Loan balance growth is slowing, while the money
supply keeps growing at a steady rate of around 7%.
6 Weeks Of Hawkishness And 4 Dovish
Expectations For This Week's FOMC – ZH
Goldman Sachs: While
we do not expect the committee to deviate much from the existing message and
keep all options open, we anticipate that Fed officials will, on the margin,
try to calm markets at the June 18-19 FOMC meeting.
Prisoner's Dilemma: Will Investors And The Fed
Collaborate? – ZH
Citi's credit team: 'widening'
in credit spreads but is just as useful in considering the weakness in equity
markets since the capital structure arbitrage-led relationship between equity
and credit as liabilities on the balance sheet of a 'firm' means that any
disconnect cannot last long.
ASIA
QE down under – alphaville
/ FT
Another day, another
Aussie GDP downgrade. BofA Merrill Lynch isn’t forecasting a money printing
bonanza from the Reserve Bank of Australia. He’s just saying it is a possibility if the
Australian slips into recession in the second half of 2015.
OTHER
Mid-year Review: Ten Economic Questions for
2013 – Calculated
Risk
At the end of last
year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2013. I followed up with a brief post
on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in
2013 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think
will happen - and understand why I was wrong). By request, here is a mid-year
review (a little before mid-year).
FINNISH
Liianko
suurin odotuksin loppukuun puoluekokoukseen? – Henri
Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro