Schedule and vital links for December 18
19:00 GMT FOMC statement
19:30 GMT Bernanke press conference
19:30 GMT Bernanke press conference
The Wall Street Journal’s Fed Statement Tracker
Previous statement (Oct 16)
Previous projection (Sep18, pdf)
Previous projection (Sep 18, html)
Previous statement (Oct 16)
Previous projection (Sep18, pdf)
Previous projection (Sep 18, html)
BEFORE
Just Do It – The Reformed
Broker
The Case for the Fed
Tapering Today – WSJ
To sum up why I still say the Federal Open Market Committee will start
tapering its bond-buying program at the end of its policy meeting this
afternoon: It’s because it can.
The Fed is about to
surprise investors – Yahoo!
The Fed may introduce new "offsets" to soften the impact of a
policy change at the same time it decides to tighten up on quantitative easing.
Here are some of its alternatives.
5 Takeaways on How Bernanke Will Be Remembered – WSJ
What Do You Need to
Know About the Fed Meeting? – WSJ
Jon Hilsenrath Fields Your Questions
Fed Convinced Markets
That Taper Doesn’t Mean Higher Rates Sooner – WSJ
A December taper: a
chance to regain lost face? – WSJ
Watch Rupiah, Yen
When Fed Strikes – WSJ
Ahead of the Dec 2013
FOMC
– Money
Supply / FT
Three Potential Outcomes From Fed Meeting – WSJ
1) hold and wait 2) start tapering 3) announces taper date
Taper Expectations, Then and Now – WSJ
This
time around, a majority of investors and economists expect the Fed to
keep its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program in place, at least for
the next month, if not longer. But if the experts were so off three
months ago, what about this time around?
More Economists Weigh In on Tapering – WSJ
"Twas The Night Before Taper" – ZH
Deutsche's Joe LaVorgna Sees A $10 Billion Taper
What to Watch for From the Fed Meeting – WSJ
Will
they taper * What do they cut * Do they fiddle with forward guidance *
What are their economic projections * How will Bernanke handle his swan
song
A Look Inside the Fed’s Balance Sheet – WSJ
As
the Federal Reserve debates whether to keep buying $85 billion of bonds
a month, the assets on its balance sheet are on the cusp of surpassing
$4 trillion for the first time.
US Dollar Risks And The Four Fed Surprises – ZH
From
the odds of a taper to adjusting forecasts and from forward-guidance
communication to the chances of a cut in the IOER, the FOMC meeting in
the week ahead presents upside and downside risks to the dollar in the
near term; even if UBS believes the longer-term will see USD strength
against both the EUR and JPY.
The Fed might taper this week - everything you need to know – WaPo
Will the Fed taper tomorrow or wait until March? – TradingFloor
The
Fed announces on Wednesday if the economic data merits a tapering of
the monthly bond purchases. Odds of Santa-taper have increased,
according to the latest polls. But does it really matter whether the
taper comes now or in three months?
Do Investors Know Something the Markets Don’t – WSJ
Curiously, it appears that many investors do not share analysts’ expectations for a move just yet.
Clearly
the data is broadly consistent with the September FOMC projections, so a
small taper should not be a surprise (even if most analysts think the
FOMC will wait until early 2014).
Unless you are living in a cave, you shouldn't be surprised if the Fed decides to taper this week. At the same time, you shouldn't be surprised if they do not taper. Even if they don't at this meeting, they soon will.
Fed Taper Message Succeeds With Bonds Adjusting to Economic Data – BB
After
misleading investors with a time line for tapering its unprecedented
stimulus, the Federal Reserve now is stressing that any reduction in
bond purchases will depend on the economic outlook -- and the message is
sinking in.
Focus firmly on Bernanke’s penultimate FOMC meeting Wednesday – TradingFloor
This
week’s FOMC meeting will be the year’s final major US event risk ahead
of the New Year. There should be plenty of volatility potential
considering the divided opinions on what the Fed will say on Wednesday.
Central Station: Taper time? Close call for Fed – WSJ
Ask the Economists: Should the Fed Taper in December? – WSJ
Market
participants are on edge about whether Fed officials will start
reducing, or tapering, their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, a
program known as quantitative easing or QE.
Bernanke Defends Transparency Push – WSJ
Fed
Chairman Bernanke defended a push for greater central bank transparency
during his tenure, arguing it is essential for public acceptance of Fed
policies and can help ease financial conditions with interest rates at
zero.
FOMC preview : 50:50 odds of Fed tapering next week – Nordea
We
believe there is close to a 50% chance that the Fed will announce
tapering of its asset purchases as early as next week’s FOMC meeting. If
tapering is not announced on Wednesday 18 December, we would expect it
at the 28-29 January meeting. Thus, we believe the Fed is very close to
an inflection point with a shift from more to less policy easing.
Great Graphic: Fed Forecasts for 2013 and What Many are Missing – Marc to Market
Should the Fed Switch Its Benchmark Rates? – WSJ
The
Federal Reserve is testing a new bond-trading program that is working
so well, some influential people think it could lead the central bank to
ditch its current policy lever.
Weekly Focus: Markets prepared for Fed tapering – Danske Bank
We expect the Fed to announce tapering next week but also to balance it with strong forward guidance to anchor bond yields.
Week Ahead – Nordea
Next
week’s key event is the two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on
Wednesday. We believe there is close to a 50% chance that the Fed will
announce tapering of its asset purchases.
Strategy: Fed tapering coming up... – Danske Bank
Fed tapering coming up, but markets are prepared.
Fed Scorecard: Where Do Officials Stand on Tapering?– WSJ
Fed
officials haven’t sent a clear signal of what they are likely to do.
The critics of the program remain eager to start winding it down, while
the supporters generally have been noncommittal about what they want to
do at the meeting.
Taper Or No Taper - What The FOMC Has Really Said – ZH
Deutsche
believes there is a chance that the Fed’s institutional biases lead it
to taper earlier then the economic data might suggest is optimal. Whilst
Yellen may be able to push against some of these biases, 2014 will
still see a tightrope balancing act at the Fed as economics and
institution bias battle it out and increasing noise is made for forward
guidance to replace QE as the main tool of monetary policy activism.
Confusion Over The Fed's [December|January|March] Taper– ZH
Estimates ranging from FOMC’s Dec. 17-18 meeting in Washington to Jan. or March, based on published research.
Will Low Inflation Delay The Taper Decision? – The Capital Spectator
The Fed’s options – alphaville / FT
1) Tapering 2) A change to the forward guidance thresholds 3) Adding an inflation floor to the existing thresholds 4) A small reduction in IOER 5) Other stuff
Treasury Yield Curve Steepest Since 2011 as Jobs Fuel Taper Bets – BB
The
difference between yields on two-and 10-year Treasuries widened to the
most since 2011 as employment gains reinforced expectations the Federal
Reserve is close to slowing bond purchases used to stimulate growth.
Update: Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering – Calculated Risk
I
suspect the FOMC is very concerned about the low level of inflation,
and also the decline in the employment participation rate. The December
FOMC meeting is on the 17th and 18th. Note: Another key is that a budget agreement is reached by December 13th.
Is a Fed taper bullish or bearish for stocks? – Humble Student
Will
the Fed be successful in convincing the markets that "tapering isn't
tightening"? Does "not tightening" mean that risk premiums will rise, or
when they remain compressed at current levels? My best guess right now
is that the Fed will be moderately successful in its messaging and US
stock prices will continue to grind higher into 2014.
Bullard Offers Up The Tiny Taper – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
The Federal Reserve wants to taper. Wants very badly to taper, in my opinion. The
recent employment reports seem to be giving a green light… Whether
December or January or later, policy is close to an inflection point
with a shift from more to less accommodation in the works.