Special: Finnish austerity package (updated)
EUROPE
It has been three
years since the outbreak of the euro crisis, and only an inveterate optimist
would say that the worst is definitely over. It is not, and it won't be unless
and until the eurozone's structure is fundamentally reformed.
Economic Outlook
Nordics: Divergence – Nordea
The Nordic countries currently display diverging economic growth
patterns. The once so strong Norwegian economy is heading for a sharp downturn,
while Denmark, the past years’
growth laggard, is gaining momentum after several years of housing market
crisis. The Swedish export sector has faced massive problems over the past few
years, but now better times are ahead as activity internationally picks up. Finland is struggling with
huge growth problems related to both domestic and foreign demand.
The European Union’s antitrust regulator on Wednesday slapped fines on
eight financial institutions for alleged collusion to fix benchmarks affecting
yen and euro interest rate derivatives.
European Equities
Breaking Down – The
Short Side of the Long
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Q&A on negative
ECB deposit rate – Nordea
What to Expect From
ECB Meeting – WSJ
The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at record
lows following Thursday's monthly meeting of its rate-setting board, after
surprising markets with a cut in its key lending rate to 0.25% last month.
Watchful ECB likely
to keep powder dry tomorrow – TradingFloor
I expect no action from the ECB at its December meeting Thursday, but
President Mario Draghi, backed up by new, modest, staff projections, will keep
the overall tone of the meeting dovish.
ECB's Draghi needs to
plunge a fork into the EURUSD rally – TradingFloor
The sluggish, yet persistent, EURUSD rally of the past four weeks may be
coming to a close, but ECB President Mario Draghi is the only one who can
really put a fork in it. The US employment report,
out Friday, is looming as well.
Will the ECB’s
minutes overrun? – Money
Supply / FT
However, a few months ago Mario Draghi made quite a firm pledge to tell
us by the end of the autumn how the ECB intended to go about producing an
“account” of the governing council’s policy deliberations. Will Mr Draghi end
up breaking his promise?
PREs, VSPs, and the
ECB –
Krugman
/ NYT
Whatever Praet may privately think, he and his boss have to deal with
Europe’s Very Serious People — people who believe in austerity regardless of
circumstances, and who also say things like this, from the Bundesbank’s Jens
Weidmann, declaring that “the money printer is definitely not the way to solve
[Europe's problems]“.
MACRO NUMBERS
Euro area GDP: investments beginning to pick up – Danske
Bank
Euro-Area Economic Growth Slows as Exports, Consumption Cool – BB
Great Graphic: Eurozone Output PMI and GDP – Marc
to Market
UNITED STATES
MACRO NUMBERS
MACRO NUMBERS
Trade in goods and
services October 2013 – BEA
Deficit Shrinks To
$40.6 Billion As October Petroleum Exports Rise To New Record – ZH
Trade Deficit decreased in October to $40.6 Billion – Calculated
Risk
November 2013 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business – ISM
ISM Services Miss (Lowest Since June) As Employment Plunges To 6-Month
Lows – ZH
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 53.9 indicates slower expansion in
November – Calculated
Risk
ISM Services Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke
U.S. service sector
growth slows in November: ISM survey – Reuters
U.S. private sector
activity bounces back in November: Markit – Reuters
New Home Sales Surge By Most Since 1980 As Median Price Drops To One
Year Low – ZH
New Home Sales increased to 444,000 Annual Rate in October – Calculated
Risk
New home sales surge in October, supply dwindles – Reuters
ASIA
The Q3 GDP report emphasises that the domestic economy remains weak
ahead of a sharp decline in mining investment. With further fiscal
consolidation on the cards we therefore believe that the RBA will cut rates
again, partly aiming for a weaker AUD to help rebalancing the economy. Thus we
expect a new 25bp rate cut in Q1 2014 (likely in March). Against this
background, we have lowered our AUD forecast.
FINNISH
Talousnäkymät – Tiet erkanevat – Nordea
Globaali
kasvu on pikkuhiljaa paranemassa kehittyneiden maiden vedolla. Näkymiä
kohentavat löysä rahapolitiikka ja aikaisempaa pienempi finanssipoliittinen
sopeutus sekä poliittisten riskien pieneneminen Yhdysvalloissa ja Euroopassa.
Euroaluekin on ponnistamassa kasvuun. Saksassa kasvu on vahvaa, mutta Etelä- ja
Keski-Euroopassa se pysyy erittäin kituliaana. Pohjoismaat ovat kulkemassa eri
suuntiin. Ruotsin kasvua pitää yllä vahva yksityinen kulutus, mitä
vientisektori alkaa tukea kansainvälisen talouden elpymisen myötä. Norjan kasvu
puolestaan on hyytymässä, ja maan asuntohinnat laskevat ennustehorisontilla
jopa 20 %. Suomessa kasvu alkaa viennin vedon kautta. Siitä tosin ei ole vielä
mitään merkkejä. Niinpä olemme alentaneet Suomen talouden kasvuarvioitamme
kautta linjan vuosille 2013-2015.
Suomi-laiva uppoaa, jos EKP ei auta - ainakin
nämä neljä ammusta osuvat vesirajan alle – YLE
Usein niin
positiivisesti elämään suhtautuvan Nordean tänään keskiviikkona julkaisema
talousennuste oli synkkä. Suomen ja muun maailman tiet erkanevat.
Nordea maalaa talouden lähitulevaisuuden
synkin sävyin – Verkkouutiset
Ainoat valopilkut ovat matalla pysyvät korot
ja maltillinen inflaatio.
Sauli Niinistön tekemän megaluokan
harhautuksen ydin – Verkkomedia