Special: Finnish austerity package (updated)
EUROPE
By swapping €6.64 billion worth of short-dated debt for bonds that will
mature later, Portugal has reduced the amount of cash it needs to cover
maturing bonds over the next two years by a quarter.
The European Union is gradually moving to a compromise on the Single
Resolution Mechanism. It is intended to
be agreed up before the end of the year to give the European Parliament time to
debate and eventually accept it prior to the run-up to the May elections.
Die Welt further recommends that European commissioners should “rein in
their moral indignation” against countries that want to restrict access to
their social welfare systems. “The application of European law is the best way
to fight the populists”
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB Preview: More
stimulus, but not in December – Danske
Bank
An important but also
confusing speech by Peter Praet on disinflation – ECB
Watchers
Praet explicitly recognizes that non-standard measures can also be used
to fight “falling prices”, and not just to address financial fragmentation as
in the Trichet doctrine. This is a pretty important departure from a doctrine
point of view and may open the door to more agressive actions.
UNITED STATES
ISM vs the hard data – alphaville
/ FT
Two recent notes emphasise that the impressive recent ISM manufacturing
readings in the US are probably as much
about expectations of future performance as about what has already happened.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Fed Official: Tests
of New Tool Are Going Well – WSJ
An official
responsible for implementing Fed monetary policy said that tests of a new tool,
designed to help the central bank control short-term interest rates when the
time comes to tighten monetary policy, appear to be going well.
We need to talk about
deflation, again – alphaville
/ FT
Since September 2011, the Fed has succeeded in managing inflation
expectations but not inflation itself. Has anybody noticed? What happens when
they do? Will QE4 be as successful at changing even inflation expectations when
QE1, QE2, Operation Twist and QE3 have failed to prevent recorded inflation
from now falling to 1.1%?
Stop the taper talk—the
Fed has actually done too little – Quartz
OTHER
Global PMIs point to
stronger growth in 2014 – TradingFloor
Global manufacturing
output reached its highest level in 32 months, according to our PMI
manufacturing tracker. This supports our case for stronger global growth next
year.
These 17 countries
may have housing bubbles. If they pop, God help us all. – WaPo
Nouriel Roubini was one of the most presciently pessimistic analysts of
the global economy in the run-up to the global financial crisis. And now he
thinks it's happening again.
FINNISH
Tutkimuslaitosten suhdanne-ennusteet ovat
antaneet vaatimattoman kuvan Suomen taloustilanteesta, mutta ne saattavat silti
olla liian myönteisiä. Laaditut ennusteet nojaavat virallisiin tilastoihin,
joiden mukaan talous olisi kääntynyt kasvuun jo kesän aikana. Tämä ei oikein
vastaa yleistä mielikuvaa. Virallisia tilastoja onkin viime vuosina korjattu
usein jälkikäteen.
Vain kansainvälisyys nostaa Suomen suosta – HS
Euroopan
yhdentyminen on yksi maamme kansainvälisen toiminnan peruskivistä. Yksin olemme
kuin lastu laineilla. Yhdentymisen suurin vaara meillä ja muualla eivät ole
historiattomat populistipuolueet vaan niiden säikäyttämät perinteiset puolueet.
Rikkaat, alistettu kansanosa – Saloniemi
Maahanmuutto teki Pisan toiseenkin polveen – Juhani
Huopainen / US