Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated!)
EUROPE
The German economy is
not as strong as it looks – Europp
/ LSE
Levels of internal investment are relatively low in comparison to other
European countries, and that demographic trends are likely to impede future
development. Rather than relying on Germany to pull Europe out of its crisis,
helping ‘periphery’ countries to stand on their own feet may be a more
productive solution.
Booze, Brussels and the next Commission president – The
World / FT
The EU has just been through a wrenching crisis that has raised
questions about its very survival. And it is also now a club of 28 countries.
But the three main candidates for Commission president are all traditional
European federalists – drawn from the seven founding member states.
CRISIS COUNTRIES
Soaring Corruption in
Spain: Perception or Reality? – WSJ
Chart Of The Day:
Spanish "Recovery" Edition – ZH
Hryvnia? We hardly
knew ye – alphaville
/ FT
BNP Warns "The
Run On Ukrainian Deposits May Have Already Started" – ZH
EU Said to Weigh Extending Greek Loans to 50 Years – BB
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB Preview: End of sterilisation? – TradingFloor
While the ECB will not necessarily act this week, a consensus has formed
that something will be coming. Sterilisation, the sacred cow of hard money
policy, could be near the end of the road.
ECB's next steps
could involve suspending SMP sterilization - instant QE – Sober
Look
An ECB Nail-Biter:
Will It Cut Rates? – WSJ
ECB Preview – Marc to Market
The ECB meets on Thursday amid heightened speculation it will make a new
initia
tive given the deterioration of the two pillars of its monetary policy,
money supply and inflation.
Deflation, now vs
then
– alphaville
/ FT
As we await for the ECB to act or not later in the week, Capital
Economics’ Jonathan Loynes took the time to note there are good reasons to
think a new bout of deflation could be both longer- lasting and more pernicious
than the last one
If Not Quantitative
Easing, What Can the ECB Do? – PIIE
Admittedly, purchases of private bank assets by national central banks
would not help the rebalancing of the euro area. They also would not require Germany and other core
countries to boost domestic demand and accept higher inflation. But Germany is more likely to
accept this course of action now than to pursue greater inflation throughout
the euro area, even at the risk of future risk mutualization.
The ECB should be
more aggressive on monetary policy – Bruegel
Promise to do “whatever it takes” stabilized the euro but hesitant
stance to fight low inflation or even deflation will undermine stability
What to Expect From
the ECB Meeting – WSJ
FISCAL
Treasury Bill Yields
Are Surging As Debt-Ceiling X-Date Approaches – ZH
CBO Projection:
Budget Deficit to be below 3% of GDP for next four years – Calculated
Risk
FEDERAL RESERVE
Fed’s Evans: Rate
Increase Still Unlikely Until 2015 – WSJ
No End To Tapering
Yet
– Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
The Fed isn't ready
to change course. Recent turbulence is enough to peak their curiosity,
not enough to suggest that tapering was premature.
Daniel K Tarullo:
Volcker Rule – BIS
Testimony by Mr Daniel K Tarullo, Member of the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S.
House of Representatives, Washington DC, 5 February 2014.
EMERGING
The $3 Trillion Hole
- Why EM Matters To European Banks – ZH
Everything You Need
to Know About the Emerging-Market Currency Collapse – The
Atlantic
Money poured into developing economies after the financial crisis, and
now it's starting to pour out. How much should we worry?
Charting the worst
hit in the emerging market retreat – beyondbrics
/ FT
Above
the noise: Why do we care about emerging markets? – TradingFloor
Emerging markets only account for about 10.6 percent of the total
investable equity universe so why do we care about these countries? We provide
the answer, and highlight our favourite emerging market countries.
The Next Steps For
The EM Crisis (In 4 Charts) – ZH
5 Takeaways From
EMPEA’s Annual Report – WSJ
Private equity investors’ response to whipsawing global public markets
is more often than not “keep calm and carry on.” That seems to be the case in
emerging markets, according to the latest annual data published by the Emerging
Markets Private Equity Association.
OTHER
Investment Outlook:
ding dong — is this a bear song? – TradingFloor
January saw a tough but familiar start to the new investment year:
equities fell as did bond yields and EM FX looked like something to which even
alley cats would give a wide berth. This is most likely just another correction
in a longer-term upturn.
2 Senior Foreign Exchange Executives to Step Down – NYT
How the FX Fallout Has Spread – WSJ
How The Rest Of The World Sells Its Government Bonds – ZH
FINNISH
Sasi: Kreikan uusi tukipaketti olisi
ongelmallinen – "velat maksettava takaisin" – Verkkouutiset
Lähteet: Kreikan lainojen takaisinmaksua
aiotaan lykätä – TalSa
Hallitus kärsii muiden mokista – Risto
Pennanen / TalSa
Edelliset
hallitukset ovat vaikeaan taloustilanteeseen enemmän syyllisiä kuin nykyinen.
Keskuskauppakamari: Julkinen talous kuntoon
kolmen askeleen ohjelmalla – Verkkouutiset
"Kiinan pankkitulivuori savuttaa
jo" – TalSa
Kiinan pankkien luottokanta on paisunut kuin
pullataikina. Nordean pääekonomisti ja tutkimusjohtaja Aki Kangasharju uskoo,
että korjausliike on tulossa.
Kansantalouden tuotanto pieneni marraskuussa
2013 – Tilastokeskus