Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated!)
2008 – MacroMania
Like many people out there, I am eagerly awaiting the release of the
full transcripts of the Fed's monetary policy meetings for 2008…I expect that
the media will have a field day.
FOMC: Transcripts and
Other Historical Materials, 2008 – FED
Help Us Read Through the Federal Reserve 2008
Transcripts – WSJ
The 2008 FOMC
transcripts – alphaville
/ FT
And yes, the Fed was
really, really concerned about Treasury fails in 2008 – alphaville
/ FT
Federal Reserve 2008
Transcripts: Full Coverage – WSJ
The Federal Reserve on
Friday released transcripts of 14 scheduled and emergency policy meetings it
held in 2008, providing new details of discussions within the central bank as
financial turmoil related to the housing bust escalated into a full-blown crisis
threatening the financial system and the economy.
Federal Reserve 2008:
A Timeline of Fed Actions and Financial Crisis Events – WSJ
Here's a timeline of
key events and flash points at the Federal Reserve in 2008, with links to Wall
Street Journal stories and related Fed documents.
Fed 2008 Transcripts
Q1: Winter Wake-Up Call – WSJ
Federal Reserve
officials spent much of 2007 underestimating the trouble brewing in financial
markets, but the transcripts show how they came to realize in early 2008 that
they were facing a potentially serious crisis.
Fed 2008 Transcripts
Q2: Spring Lull – WSJ
Fed transcripts
released Friday shed light on the central bankers’ internal debates in the
second quarter of 2008, when officials seemed less worried about the financial
system but increasingly concerned about a potential spike in inflation. The March
collapse of Bear Stearns was behind them, and the crisis days of September lay
ahead and out of sight. “The worst is likely to be behind us,” Treasury
Secretary Henry Paulson declared in May.
Fed 2008 Transcripts
Q3: The Panic Erupts – WSJ
Fed officials saw
financial turbulence growing through the summer, erupting into a full-blown
crisis in September, the transcripts show.
Fed 2008 Transcripts Q4: Whatever It Takes – WSJ
After the crisis
peaked in September, the months that followed were sometimes harrowing as well,
the transcripts show.
Fed Transcripts Provide New Details on 2008 Fed
Libor Suspicions – WSJ
A top Federal Reserve
official told colleagues in April 2008 that he had doubt about whether banks
were being honest in how they were calculating the Libor
Yellen in September-October 2008 – alphaville
/ FT
Janet Yellen was less
worried than some of her FOMC colleagues in September 2008 that high inflation
would remain a problem, and she was also more bearish on the economic outlook:
What Really Mattered To The Fed The Day After
Lehman Collapsed, In Its Own Words – ZH
Did The Fed Also Bail Out A Hedge Fund In The
Crisis? – ZH
Fed Failed to See Lehman’s Fallout for Economy,
Transcripts Show – BB
The records show Fed
officials struggling to understand the magnitude of the financial crisis that
was underway, and the potential fallout for the economy.
Yellen Saw Economy at ‘Brink of Recession’ in
January 2008 – BB
Janet Yellen saw the
U.S. economy “at, if not beyond, the brink of recession” in January 2008,
differing from the less gloomy view of Federal Reserve staff, according to
transcripts of policy meetings released today.
Records show Fed on edge during darkest days of
2008 crisis – Reuters
Federal Reserve
policymakers, in an emotional meeting on one of the darkest days of the 2008
financial crisis, were worried the failure of Lehman Brothers a day earlier
would wreak havoc on a teetering financial system but feared cutting already
low interest rates might prove an over-reaction.
The
‘best’ Fed jokes from the worst of the financial crisis – Quartz
The Fed’s Actions in
2008: What the Transcripts Reveal – NYT
At Least The Fed
Ended The Catastrophic 2008 On A Funny Note – NWO
Stop
A Chronicle of
Uncertainty, Then Bold Action, in 2008 Fed Transcripts – NYT
Bernanke on Japanese
vs American monetary policy (or QE vs credit easing) – alphaville
/ FT
Quantitative easing is an adaptation for when rates hit the zero lower
bound that’s meant to closely mirror the normal functioning of monetary policy
(interest rates down, lending up). Credit easing is meant to target the
specific problems that would be immune to help from (normal) monetary policy.
Fed
flying blind – alphaville
/ FT
Given the release of the 2008 FOMC transcripts, the St Louis Fed has
shrewdly tweeted a speech from last year by its president, James Bullard,
arguing that the real-time economic data in 2008 was badly trailing events.
Fed Failed to See
Lehman’s Fallout for Economy, Transcripts Show – Businessweek
The day after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declared the largest
bankruptcy in U.S. history in 2008,
Federal Reserve officials remained unsure whether the financial crisis would do
lasting damage to the U.S. economy.
Metaphorically speaking:
5 turns of phrase from the transcripts – WSJ
Fed officials have a
long history of spicing up their discussions of monetary policy with metaphors
and analogies. Here are five of the most vivid turns of phrase from the Fed's
2008 transcripts.
Rosengren, a strong advocate of aggressive central bank action, emerges
from 2008 Fed policy meeting transcripts as an early voice of alarm on the
scope of the financial crisis that was building at the time.
Visit Website
Is This The Moment
The Fed Decided To Go All In? – ZH
In December 2008, two brief conversations from Ms Yellen and Mr Bullard
appear to have set the scene for both the scale and focus of the Fed's actions
over the ensuing years... ironically it was Janet Yellen's fear of a
"rising" labor force participation rate and Jim Bullard's rapid
realization that the US was "moving to a Japanese-style deflationary, zero
nominal interest rate, situation at an alarming pace."
How the Fed Saw a
Recession, Then Didn’t, Then Did – NYT
Bernanke Took Charge
as Fed Awoke to Need for War on 2008 Crisis – BB
In December 2008, Ben S. Bernanke, the self-effacing chairman of the
Federal Reserve, declared war against a cascading recession that the Fed was
late to see coming and took charge as general.
Graphic:
Fed's Response to Crisis – WSJ
Interactive: The
Fed’s Actions in 2008: What the Transcripts Reveal – NYT
As
Crisis Loomed, Yellen Made Wry and Forceful Calls for Action – NYT
Fed’s Aid in 2008
Crisis Stretched Worldwide – NYT
FOMC 2008 – 20 cent
paradigms
It is easy, with the benefit of hindsight, to criticize the committee
members whose worries over inflation and optimism about the impact of the
financial crisis look so foolish today (and this applies to some of the
academic members, not just Fisher). But
looking at the data they had at the time underscores the fact that their task
isn't so easy.