Here
are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated!)
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EUROPE
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
ECB
Preview: End of sterilisation? – TradingFloor
While the ECB will not necessarily act this week, a consensus has formed
that something will be coming. Sterilisation, the sacred cow of hard money
policy, could be near the end of the road.
BANKING
Europe’s Stress Tests: A Cheat’s Guide – WSJ
Press release: ECB makes progress
with asset quality review – ECB
Note on the comprehensive assessment Feb 2014 – ECB
Confirms stress test
parameters for comprehensive assessment. Collection of first set of data
completed, portfolio selection closes in mid-February. Stress test will
incorporate the results of the asset quality review. As announced by the
European Banking Authority, the capital thresholds for the baseline and adverse
scenarios will be 8% and 5.5% Common Equity Tier 1 capital respectively
ECB to reveal strategy
for bank health checks by end-March – Reuters
The ECB kept the euro zone's top lenders on tenterhooks as it promised
to reveal the strategy for its unprecedented review of bank balance sheets by
the end of March, giving only scant detail on Monday.
GREECE
The History of the IMF and Greece’s Bailout – WSJ
While euro zone and
IMF officials secretly debate how to deal with Greece’s ever-controversial
bailout, it might prove instructive to go back to the genesis of the program.
Charlemagne: The euro’s
hellhound – The Economist
It is time to reform
the troika that handles euro zone bail-outs
Greece Is Back – ZH
Germany preparing new Greek aid package – Spiegel – Ekathimerini
Germany, France, Creditors Hold Secret Meeting Due To Greek Bailout "Mounting
Concerns"
UNITED STATES
Markets
Tumble. How Will the Fed React? – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
The Fed is once again
in a familiar place. They try to pull back on policy, and markets tumble.
Tightening has repeatedly proved to come too early; one wonders if the
Fed would have had to keep doing more if they didn't keep promising to do less.
If history is any guide, they will eventually reverse course. But
that same history would suggest that they need to see conditions deteriorate
further before they act.
Wonkbook:
Will there be another debt-ceiling fight? – WaPo
Rating
Agencies Differ on Impact of Debt-Ceiling Deadline – WSJ
Six
Ways Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship Can Hurt the U.S. – WSJ
Washington’s repeated brawls
over raising the federal borrowing limit all ended without causing economic
disasters. They haven't
ended without economic damage altogether.
EMERGING
Emerging Market Rout May
Signal ‘Sudden Stop’: Cutting Research – BB
Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Ukraine are the emerging markets most at risk of a
“sudden stop,” in the view of Morgan Stanley. That’s defined as a halt or even
a reversal in capital flows into a country, slashing access to international
financial markets for an extended period and weakening the economy.
Have EM outflows only just
begun? – alphaville / FT
SocGen’s cross-asset
research team believes so, especially given the Fed doesn’t appear to care
about the EM sell-off. If it keeps going, balance of payments issues could
emerge as a result
EM central bankers: guiders,
reactors and mavericks – beyondbrics / FT
Post-panic paranoia plotted – alphaville / FT
The European / Global
banks most exposed to the more fragile EM markets are the Large Cap Spanish
Banks…EM stock markets in countries with current account deficits have fared
far worse that those with surpluses this year…Nobody seems to care about DM
current accounts right now, but you never know – that could change.
Capital controls or
cooperation? – Pieria
It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that, faced with currency
collapse and/or unsustainable rises in debt burdens, some countries may resort
to direct restrictions on capital movements. Would this be an appropriate
course of action?"
It’s the hot money,
stupid
– alphaville / FT
All of which begs one question. Should some of the blame associated with
what happens when false friends leave be directed to those who sent them your
way to begin with?
Emerging
Market turmoil and the canary in the coal mine – Money Matters
FINNISH
Työpaikat tai palkat – mankeli odottaa – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Sisäinen devalvaatio ei onnistunut viime
lamassa, eikä sen onnistuminen ole nytkään varmaa. Se on kuitenkin tiedossa,
että Suomen kustannuspaine on kasvanut eikä hellittänyt. Moni meitä rujommin kriisistä
kärsinyt maa on pakosta karsinut kuluja, ja on ainakin tilastoissa kohentanut
kilpailukykyään. Suomelta maali karkaa, mutta ennen pitkää meilläkin mankeliin
joutuvat työpaikat tai palkat tai molemmat.
Myytti Saksan sisäisestä devalvaatiosta – Tyhmyri
Elvis ilmestyi paahtoleivässä
Elinkeinoelämä ja euron
puolustus – Tyhmyri
mutta nythän
on jo jonkun aikaa kuulunut elinkeinoelämän ääniä euroa vastaan