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Tuesday, February 25

25th Feb - EC's forecasts, European disinflation





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EUROPE
Can Hollande pull off a Schröder and will it work?DB Research
While the meaningful overhaul of the French economy is instrumental for the economic survival of the euro, France should join forces with Germany to fix the political side of monetary union in the very near future.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Where Are the ECB Transcripts?WSJ
The Fed released Friday thousands of pages of transcripts from the central bank’s meetings in 2008. This is more difficult with the ECB.

Why the euro inflation number is worse than it looksMoney Supply / FT
Mr Alexandrovich’s chart shows that deflation is becoming more broad based across the bloc, and in all but one of the eurozone’s largest economies.

Euro Inflation Research 2: ECB's current inflation forecastDanske Bank

Europe May Face Deflation Risk: Former ECB ChiefWSJ

ECB sees no deflation risk for now: PraetReuters

  GERMANY
Germany at Heart of Europe's Political Predicament; Squaring the Circle; When is the Breaking Point?Mish’s
One way or another Germany is going to pay a huge price. Theoretically, there are two solutions: 1) Germany can pay the price by debt forgiveness and mutualization of debt 2) Germany can pay the price via default when the eurozone breaks apart

Presentation: The German economy and the German real estate marketDB Research

Exporters send German GDP higher – TradingFloor
Foreign trade drives Q4 GDP growth as domestic demand disappoints – Reuters
German Exports Powered Fourth-Quarter Economic Growth – BB

  EUROPEAN SEMESTER
Barroso speechEuropean Commission
Report on the European Semester for Economic Policy Coordination: Annual Growth Survey 2014

Winter forecast 2014 - EU economy: recovery gaining groundEuropean Commission

  MACRO NUMBERS
Europe’s Recovery: Slow, Oh-So Slow – WSJ
Italy and France to lag Germany in euro zone recovery – Reuters
Euro Area Seen Improving While Trailing U.S.-China Growth – BB

UNITED STATES
Worst value opportunity set in 25 yearsGreenbackd
Looking back at our dispersion chart above, we’re currently at a 25-year low, meaning the cheapest 10% of the market looks an awful lot like the other 90%.

Three Unlearned Lessons of the Financial Crisis of 2008CFA Institute

Great Graphic: Capital Gets Organized, But Not LaborMarc to Market

  MACRO NUMBERS
Home prices rise more than forecast in December – Reuters

ASIA
BOJ Beat: No Simple Link Between GDP and EasingWSJ
Simplification of the Bank of Japan's communication approach doesn't mean Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda has also simplified the policy-setting process to focus on just gross domestic product, people close to the bank say.

For Abenomics, “Third Arrow” is the Hardest — and Most NeededWSJ
The first two arrows in his quiver – massive monetary easing and targeted fiscal support – have succeeded in quickening economic growth and setting prices on an upward trajectory that’s encouraging Japanese to spend rather than save. Now it's time for real economic reform

EMERGING
Erdogan’s Removal Sought by Turkish Opposition Over TapeBB
The office of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said conversations where he allegedly discussed hidden funds are fakes, even as opposition leaders called for his resignation.

OTHER
Global Macro UpdateThe Short Side of the Long

Credit JunkiesThe Economist
A new IMF paper, published on February 13th, levels more substantial criticism at Ms Reinhart and Mr Rogoff’s conclusions.

FINNISH
Kuinka suurista säästöistä nyt keskustellaan? Tässä viisi vertailukohtaaYLE
Kolme miljardia euroa on vielä kaukana lama-ajan säästöistä Suomessa. Summa kalpenee myös Kreikassa tehtyjen leikkauksien rinnalla. Keskituloiselta palkansaajalta potin ansaitseminen veisi 77 000 työvuotta.

Sipilä Kataisen kutsusta: Nyt ei tehdä päätöksiä seuraavan hallituksen puolestaYLE
Keskustan puheenjohtajan mukaan koko julkisen sektorin kestävyysvaje on kymmenen miljardia euroa.

Oppositiopuolueet talousneuvotteluista: Ei avointa valtakirjaaVerkkouutiset

Raimo Sailas: Istuva hallitus pakenee valtaansaHS

Tilasto ja miten se tulkitaanHannu Visti
Yle tekee melkoisen aasinloikan hieman komiikan puolelle lipsahtavassa uutisessaan. Siinä kerrotaan, kuinka tavoitellut kolmen miljardin säästöt valtion menoihin (tai no, miten sen nyt ottaa, verojahan oli tarkoitus lähinnä korottaa eikä niinkään säästää, mutta olkoon nyt) suhtautuvat Bill Gatesin ja Antti Herlinin miljardiomaisuuksiin.

Suomen talouskriisin luonne ja kasvun edellytyksetValtioneuvoston kanslia
Bengt Holmström, Sixten Korkman ja Matti Pohjola

Talousviisaiden arvio: Julkisten palveluiden laatua ja etuuksien tasoa pitää leikataTE

KutsuSampo Terho
Perjantaina julkaistaan pamflettini “Kohti parempaa Eurooppaa”. Tilaisuus on avoin. Tervetuloa mukaan!

Occupy Money Movement  US
Keskuspankeille valtioiden suora setelirahoitusoikeus?

Italia: parempi vuosikymmen edessä?Roger Wessman

Tammikuun työttömyysaste 8,5 prosenttiaTilastokeskus