Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Friday Close
Market Prices – Global
Macro Monitor
Silver Surges As
Bonds, Stocks, And The USD End Week Unchanged – ZH
Weekly Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
The Economist’s Weeklies:
The Weekender – beyondbrics
/ FT
Succinct summation of week’s events – The
Big Picture
Schedule for Week –
Calculated Risk
Economic Calendar – Berenberg
Ifo, EU Commission
economic sentiment survey: moderate recovery on track * Eurozone credit growth:
signs of stabilisation? * Eurozone inflation and unemployment: worries or
relief before crucial ECB meeting?
Economic Calendar – Handelsbanken
Kalenteri – Nordea
Wall Street Week Ahead – Reuters
S&P 500 may stall
near high; Yellen in focus
The Week Ahead : Setting the Stage
for March – Marc
to Market
The week
ahead is a transitional week. It is
important in terms of price action, as the euro and sterling are threatening to
break out to the upside, while the Canadian dollar is threatening a downside
break. We caution that ahead of the key
events in early March, which includes the ECB meeting and US employment data, breakouts, if
they do materialize, are unlikely to be sustained.
The end to a short month will bring a second look at
the fourth-quarter 2013 economy as well as new data on housing and consumer
sectors. Several Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled to discuss their views
on the economy. And—weather permitting–Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver
her postponed monetary policy testimony before the Senate.
What Matters in the
Week Ahead for Global Markets – WSJ
The European Commission’s economic forecasts, a
meeting of defense ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a
visit to Brussels
from Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff take pride of place in this week’s
European Union agenda, although much of the focus is again likely to be on the
bloc’s response to events in Ukraine.
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– Dash
of Insight
Does weakness in housing threaten the economy and stocks?
Weekly
Focus: Global manufacturing cycle is peaking – Danske
Bank
The global manufacturing cycle seems to be peaking at
the beginning of 2014, as ISM/PMIs for US, China and
the euro area have all started the year on a weak note. We believe this is a
temporary dent in the global manufacturing cycle as Chinese tightening has
slowed Chinese investment spending and some temporary boosts to the US are
fading and dampening US
growth for a while. Central bank easing is on the agenda again. Comments from
ECB members continue to suggest that all options are on the table but lately it
seems consensus is building that a halt to sterilising the SMP programme is the
preferred measure. The Fed so far seems little affected by recent data
Strategy:
Peak in manufacturing cycle puts easing back on the table – Danske
Bank
There are also increasing signs that the US
housing recovery is hitting a soft patch as a result of the rise in mortgage
rates in 2013… However, we still regard the
underlying fundamentals for the global economy as strengthening.
Week Ahead – Nordea
US: 2nd release of Q4 GDP, expect a down revision from 3.2% to 2.7%, which
will probably not cause to much disturbance in markets. EZ: Ifo index on Monday and flash CPI on Friday, both for February.
Final inflation numbers for January, money and credit flows as well
unemployment data and sentiment indicators from the European Commission. UK: 2nd release of the Q4 GDP. We expect a small
upwards revision.
Northern Lights - To cut or not to cut? – Nordea
Sweden: Inflation surprises again Norway: Continued slowdown Denmark: Raised state of alert
Scandi markets ahead – Danske Bank
Scandi markets ahead – Danske Bank
Weak Swedish GDP xpected, more upside for NOK/SEK and government bond
auctions in Sweden and Norway
EcoWeek – BNP
EcoWeek – BNP
Editorial: Historical weakness in French inflation. Excluding taxes impact, prices
are not increasing anymore… This stagnation could trigger ECB’s action. Global: A dove with a velvet glove… US: Do not expect the blossom before
Spring! EZ: Base effects and
inflation
Viikkokatsaus: Inflaatio ratkaisee – Nordea
Viikkokatsaus: Inflaatio ratkaisee – Nordea
Euroalueen
inflaatio, rahan määrä ja talouselämän luottamus * USA:sta asuntomarkkinadataa,
luottamuslukuja, BKT * Fed ei välitä, vaikka USA:n data pehmenee
CREDIT
Weekly
Credit Update – Danske
Bank
The credit market this week was rather uncertain.
Continued worries about emerging markets were tempered by rather mixed macro
indicators from the US.
European FI Strategy - Blame it on the weather – Nordea
Global: Weather argument will not work forever: bond markets have limited
patience. We do not expect yields to fall much further from current levels, but
the upside capped in the short term. Risks tilted towards a further fall in
rates – large short positions leave the market vulnerable to a further drop in
yields EZ: Volatility in short EUR
swap rates indicative of strongly varying market perception on the ECB. We
favour paying 6M3M Eonia. Peripheral tightening may well continue short term,
especially in Spain. EZ inflation: If EUR rates
break fundamentally lower, inflation is a firm candidate as the smoking gun. The
sensitivity to the coming inflation prints is large. Downside surprises can put
the perception of “firmly anchored” to rest
Euro Rates Update – Nordea
FOREX
FX Outlook: Skeptical of Breakouts – Marc to Market
The technical outlook for the dollar against the major currencies is not clear. Yet, given the key events over the next two weeks, we are suspicious of the market's willingness to sustain breakouts... It is in the upper end of its 5-month 5-cent trading range, roughly
$1.33-$1.38. This may help explain why implied volatility made new
multi-year lows in recent days. It is hard to be bullish the euro, if
you have a 3-6 month horizon or longer, even if you recognize, as we do,
risk that the euro could see $1.40.
Global FX Strategy - The EUR is not
"risky" anymore – Nordea
Summary here.
EMERGING
EMEA Weekly, Week 9 – Danske
Bank
EM Preview: The Week
Ahead – Marc to Market
EM Week Ahead –
beyondbrics / FT
CALENDARS
Economic Calendar – investing.com
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar – europa.eu
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet