Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
European
‘Project’ Not Irreversible, New Paper Says – WSJ
There is
still a modest risk that a weak economy and rising political dissatisfaction
could unravel Europe’s currency union, despite gradual,
halting progress toward further integration there, according to new research.
Monnet's
Error? – Brookings
In spite of
the worst recession in recent history, the Europeans still support the common
currency. Europe seems trapped in catch-22: there is
no desire to go backward, no interest in going forward, but it is economically
unsustainable to stay still.
WAYS OUT OF RECESSION
Do it
yourself European Unemployment Insurance – Bruegel
In their
Policy Brief prepared for the September 13 informal meeting of EU finance
ministers (ECOFIN), Claeys, Darvas and Wolff (2014) discuss the benefits,
drawbacks and possible designs for a potential European Unemployment Insurance
(EUI) scheme. They end their discussion by formulating 10 key decisions that
policy makers would have to take before implementing such a scheme.
Eurozone
recovery: there are no shortcuts – VoxEU.org
There is a
growing consensus that austerity is contributing to the Eurozone’s
macroeconomic malaise, but also that spending cuts are needed in the long run
to achieve fiscal sustainability. Some commentators have advocated a temporary
tax cut financed by unsterilised ECB purchases of long-term public debt, accompanied
by a commitment to future spending cuts. This column argues that such
commitments are simply not credible – especially given the moral hazard problem
created by central bank monetisation of debts.
Show us
the money: EU seeks billions of euros to revive economy – Reuters
The
European Union sought ways on Saturday to marshal billions of euros into its
sluggish economy without getting deeper into debt, considering options from a
pan-European capital market to a huge investment fund.
No
miracles in southern Eurozone without resource reallocation– VoxEU.org
As the most
acute phase of the Eurozone crisis is over, the current-account balances of France, Italy, and Spain have improved. This column warns
against complacency about this improvement, pointing at some structural factors
that impede growth and damage competitiveness. Resources should be relocated
towards the tradeable sectors and to those firms most prepared to grow and
compete. If not, these three countries are likely to aggravate the
dysfunctional duality of their economies.
POLITICS
Commission
Juncker: New team, new structures – new policies? – DB
Research
On
Wednesday the Commission's new President Jean-Claude Juncker unveiled the next
European Commission. As a new element, Juncker has established an intermediate
level of six Vice-Presidents. This new formation of the college of Commissioners could enhance governance efficiency
but could also cause rivalries over matters of competence.
Along the
frontiers between Spain and Morocco, Greece and Turkey and Hungary and Serbia, the EU is deploying brutal methods
to keep out undesired refugees. Many risk everything for a future in Europe and their odysseys too often end in
death.
Catalonia wants to join Scotland in holding an independence
referendum. But the Spanish constitution doesn't allow for secession.
Nationalists in Barcelona are prepared to push the vote through anyway.
Euro
zone ministers upset by broken French budget promises – Reuters
France faced harsh criticism on Friday for
failing to meet a deadline to put its finances in order, as frustrated euro
zone ministers struggled to keep alive their post-crisis strategy for the
bloc's stagnating economy.
The
centre-right government of Fredrik Reinfeldt has been a great success, yet
voters may well eject it in favour of the Social Democrats
GERMANY
Germany and the euro: You Kant do that – The
Economist
Many
Germans fear that the European Central Bank is not on their side
Charlemagne:
A Teutonic union – The
Economist
Behind the
scenes, Germany quietly asserts its influence in Brussels
Only Germany is holding together as separatists
threaten to rip Europe apart – The
Telegraph
The
increasing predilection for fragmentation across the continent will result in
Teutonic political hegemony - if we're lucky
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Is the
ECB doing QE? – VoxEU.org
Charles
Wyplosz: Last week, the ECB announced that it would begin purchasing securities
backed by bank lending to households and firms. Whereas markets and the media
have generally greeted this announcement with enthusiasm, this column
identifies reasons for caution. Other central banks’ quantitative easing
programmes have involved purchasing fixed amounts of securities according to a
published schedule. In contrast, the ECB’s new policy is demand-driven, and
will only be effective if it breaks the vicious circle of recession and
negative credit growth.
France and Germany oppose granting government
guarantees to support the market for repackaged debt, a document seen by
Reuters shows
The
euro-zone economy: Asset-backed indolence – The
Economist
The
European Central Bank’s plan for economic revival is underwhelming
SCOTLAND
Britain needs greater unity not a messy
break-up – FT
This isn't
brave Scotland, it's foolish – TradingFloor
What
happens after a Yes vote will shock the Scots – FT
However
amicably a divorce begins, that is rarely how it ends. Talks will be bitter and
prolonged
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Putin says
considering retaliation against 'strange' Western sanctions – Reuters
UNITED STATES
A few
Analysts comments on FOMC meeting next week – Calculated
Risk
MACRO NUMBERS
August
Retail Sales Bounce Back – dshort
Retail
Sales increased 0.6% in August – Calculated
Risk
U.S. retail sales move higher; consumer
spirits rise – Reuters
Preliminary
September Consumer Sentiment increases to 84.6 – Calculated
Risk
U.S. consumer sentiment at 14-month high
in September – Reuters
ASIA
MARKETS
A Cross Asset Observation – Global
Macro Trading
EURUSD:
Will the FOMC cease anchoring short-term USD rates? – Nordea
The FOMC
decision on September 18 will be crucial for the USD as the market is
speculating in a removal of the “considerable period” phrase from its
statement, doing so would “unanchor” short-term rates which would be
USD-positive while barring to do so would likely prompt some USD weakness.
A
Fireside Chat With Charlie Munger – WSJ
Be
grateful for drizzle
– London
Review of Books
Donald
MacKenzie on high-frequency trading
Lessons
from Freestyle Chess
– Credit
Suisse
Merging Fundamental
and Quantitative Analysis
Beware
of markets bearing gifts… but take them! – Adam Grimes
Outflows
Signal High Yield Credit Concerns Remain; Deals Pulled, Potential Downgrades
Surge – ZH
A Role
Reversal For Stocks and Bonds – A
Wealth of Common Sense
ECONOMICS
What's
special about monetary coordination failures? – Worthwhile
Secular
Stagnation Part III – The Expectations Fairy – Fistful
of Euros
Quantifying
the macroeconomic effects of large-scale asset purchases – voxeu.org
Central
banks have resorted to various unconventional monetary policy tools since the
onset of the Global Crisis. This column focuses on the macroeconomic effects of
the Federal Reserve’s large-scale purchases of mortgage-backed securities – in
particular, through reducing the ‘mortgage spread’ between interest rates on
mortgages and government bonds at a given maturity. Although large-scale asset
purchases are found to have substantial macroeconomic effects, they may not
necessarily be the best policy tool at the zero lower bound.
How
'Keynes' Became a Dirty Word – View
/ BB
The
Fed’s un-announced 4% NGDP target was introduced already in July 2009 – Market
Monetarist
OFF-TOPIC
The rise
of Generation Amex –
Observer
Need an
Intern with a Strong Sense of Entitlement and Bad Manners? Hire a Rich Kid
Hell in
the Hot Zone – Vanity
Fair
As the
Ebola epidemic rages, two questions have emerged: How did the deadly virus
escape detection for three months? And why has a massive international effort
failed to contain it? Traveling to Meliandou, a remote Guinean village and the
likely home of Patient Zero, Jeffrey E. Stern tracks the virus’s path—and the
psychological contagion that is still feeding the worst Ebola outbreak in
history.
The
Upside of Pessimism
– The
Atlantic
The theory
of defensive pessimism suggests that imagining—and planning for—worst-case
scenarios can be more effective than trying to think positively.
The
Hazards of Going on Autopilot – The
New Yorker
The more a
procedure is automated, and the more comfortable we become with it, the less
conscious attention we feel we need to pay it.
FINNISH
"Perustulon monia vaikutuksia vaikea ennustaa"
– Verkkouutiset
Ajatushautomo Tänk selvittää, millä edellytyksillä erilaisia
perustulomalleja voisi kokeilla.
Ei näillä vielä kuuhun mennä – Nordea
Euroopan keskuspankki yllätti uudella elvytyspaketilla
syyskuun kokouksessa, ja EKP:n Draghi asetti elvytystoimien tavoitteet
korkealle. Näihin tavoitteisiin ei päästä ilman valtionlainaostoja, ainakaan
nopeasti. Samalla keskuspankin uskottavuus kärsi syyskuussa selvän kolauksen.
Pääkirjoitus Jyrki Kataisen pitäisi nyt uudistaa EU:n
taloutta – HS
Antti Tanskanen: Alijäämäiset EU-maat tarvitsevat paremmassa
kunnossa olevilta jäsenmailta työtä, eivät lainoja.
Wahlroosin mukaan Suomi on pahemmassa ahdingossa kuin
vuonna 1991 – HS
Björn Wahlroos, selviääkö Suomi talouskriisistä? – HS
/ TV
Wahlroosin mukaan ay-liike on vaipunut "kvartaalisosiaalidemokratiaan",
jossa maksimoidaan jäsenistön lyhyen aikavälin edut mutta samalla ammutaan lypsävä
lehmä.
"Wahlroos - mihin unohtui euroratkaisu? " –
Verkkouutiset
Perussuomalaisten puheenjohtaja Timo Soini huomauttaa, että Björn
Wahlroos unohti Helsingin Sanomissa julkaistussa haastattelussa Suomen talouden
kritiikissään euron.
Kommentti: Suomelta yli 2,2 miljardia EU:n ja
kehitysmaiden köyhille – IS
Eurooppa ei ole Amerikka – SK
Paul Krugman ei ota Euroopan heikkoutta kyllin vakavasti,
kirjoittaa Juhana Vartiainen.
Romakkaniemi: Kataisella on komission puheenjohtajan
valtaoikeudet – HS
Taru Tujunen oli Kataisen rautanyrkki, Romakkaniemi on
silkkihanska – HS
Superkomissaari Kataisen Mission Impossible – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Suomen entinen pääministeri Jyrki Katainen kuvaa uutta
komissaarin tehtäväänsä haastavaksi. Termi ei liioittele vaan vähättelee pestin
vaikeutta: tavoite on EU-talouden täyskäännös vuosien alamäestä ja anemiasta
kelpo kasvuun. Elokuvissa mahdotonkin tehtävä voi onnistua, mutta komission
kotipaikka on Bryssel eikä Hollywood.
Onko kaikki voitava tehty euroalueella? – Raha
ja Talous