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EUROPE
European
Commission top jobs: The runners and riders – FT
The Juncker
regime will be overtly more political, streamlined and more focused around its
top priorities – at least if its organogram organisational chart is to be
believed. It will mark one of the biggest overhauls of the EU executive in more
than a decade, responding to criticism that it was too bloated, flat-footed and
bureaucratic in the face of an existential economic crisis.
The
mysterious new Commission organigram – FT
We had no
obvious reason to doubt its authenticity when we got it… But once we took a
closer look at the line-up, we began to scratch our heads.
New
government lifts inflation – Nordea
SEK FI
& FX Strategy: Election could change market view on Riksbank – Nordea
In the past
years, the Riksbank has cut rates by 1.75% on the back of falling inflation,
weak resource utilization and a similar development in the euro-zone. This has
been a very favorable tailwind for bond investors to lean against. It has also
been the major force driving the SEK weaker since 2012. But the winds could be
changing in 2015
Top
German banker slams ECB for 'arbitrary' stress tests – Reuters
A top
German banker has accused the European Central Bank of acting arbitrarily and
inconsistently with tests designed to check the stability of the eurozone's
biggest banks, saying they seemed designed to disadvantage the strongest
institutions.
Investors
expect banks to raise $67.02 billion after ECB tests – Reuters
ECB's
landmark review of euro-zone banks will have to ask lenders to raise an additional
51 billion euros ($67.02 billion) to be credible with markets, a Goldman Sachs
survey of large institutional investors has found.
The SNB
is coping just fine with 'unwanted love' Steen! – TradingFloor
FX
Diversity view presents different take on SNB dilemma * SNB's euro peg not
inherently flawed like GBP experiment in early 1990s * SNB 1.2000 floor to the
euro not under any obvious threat
Periphery
Business Cycle Monitor – Danske
Bank
The
periphery was the strong region in the euro area measured in terms of economic
growth in Q2 * A third of the output gap is due to credit weakness * The ECB’s
negative deposit rate has initiated a hunt for yield and periphery rates have declined
further in particular in the 2-5Y segment.
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Russia: Time to Buy on the Cheap? Some
Investors Think So – WSJ
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB to
Roll Out QE? Not So Fast – WSJ
Surprise
ECB news could overturn consensus on euro – TradingFloor
Further
downside on EURUSD not a certainty * Market seeking specifics on ECB's
asset-backed securities programme * Contrarian investors might look at EURAUD
Deutsche
Bank’s Jain Sees ECB Running Out of Options – BB
“The
imperative for structural reform is one the ECB has been harping on quite
consistently.”
Handicapping
the ECB Meeting – Marc
to Market
Draghi may
get German support for QE if Germany could oversee its implementation… The
proverbial circle can be squared if Draghi steps down as ECB President and
takes the high profile post of Italy's president. Germany's Weidmann is the obvious choice as
his successor.
Could
German Stimulus Stave Off ECB QE? – WSJ
By dropping
hints, that the German government might be open to offering stimulus, it seems
that Chancellor Angela Merkel and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, are
looking to give Mr. Draghi reasons not to launch QE.
Draghi's
concern is that the unemployment that was originally cyclical is becoming
structural…The result would be a permanently elevated unemployment rate and/or
reduced labour force participation rate, a higher NAIRU and lower trend path
for growth… So the really radical part of Draghi's speech was his call for an
investment programme led by the EU itself.
A few months ago, the consensus was that the time for redesigning the
euro had passed, and that the eurozone would have to live with the architecture
inherited from its crisis-driven reforms. Not anymore. It may take time before
agreement is reached and decisions are made, but the discussion is bound to
resume.
Volume of
retail trade down by 0.4% in both euro area and EU28 – Eurostat
Retail
sales fall in July, but still suggest higher private consumption – Danske
Bank
Cheap
energy pulls down euro zone producer prices drop in July – Reuters
UNITED STATES
July
Factory Orders Soar By Most On Record – ZH
ASIA
BoJ Preview:
More dovish statement, too soon for more easing – Danske
Bank
Japan's Abe: Ending deflation is new
cabinet's top priority – Reuters
Japan: Government reshuffle negative for
yen, possibly more focus on reforms – Danske
Bank
Cabinet
Shake-Up Shows Abe Keen to Deliver on Economy – BB
Goldman on
Abenomics’ moment of reckoning – FT
Is
Abenomics Working? – Project
Syndicate
Australia
Central Bank Rules Out Rate Cuts – WSJ
Australia Growth Slows as Stevens Reluctant
to Cut Rate – BB
China Services PMI Jumps Most On Record
To 18-Month Highs – ZH
China Services Gauges Rebound in Signal
of Rebalancing – BB
Schlesinger’s
Take: Bank of Japan Eyes Higher Inflation, Even with Lower Growth * Five Things
to Watch at the ECB’s Thursday Meeting * Bank of Canada Seen Holding Rate
Steady * Brazil Central Bank Expected to Leave Rate Unchanged * Australia
Central Bank Rules Out Rate Cuts
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Data over
the past 24 hours have done little to distract from the sharp picture of
divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world, which
has been driving the dollar higher. However, more broadly it has at least
softened concerns about the overall global economy, as the numbers show growth
in pockets around the world. Europe’s services PMIs were on average slightly
weaker than expected, with Germany continuing to be a worry – and that
contrasted sharply with the booming report on U.S. manufacturing from the
Institute of Supply Management Tuesday. But with strong growth in Spain and the U.K., it wasn’t a monolithic picture of
pain. And China’s HSBC services index showed a
welcome rebound from a dismal readout in July. All up, this won’t detract from
the buy-the-dollar argument, but it is nothing to panic about, either.
FX
Update: Euro sideways ahead of ECB – GBP selling overdone? – TradingFloor
The
currency market is holding its breath with a thin US economic calendar today and a day
ahead of a key ECB meeting. Also, it’s time to wonder if GBP selling is getting
overdone after yesterday’s Scottish independence vote poll.
Economic
Outlook – Headwinds
– Nordea
Once again
the global economy is facing headwinds. The nascent global recovery at the
beginning of the year has become subject to growing uncertainty due to mounting
geopolitical tensions. The Cold War-like duel between the West and Russia over Ukraine is still escalating, and the Middle East has once again put itself into the
spotlight with the war-like situation in Gaza and the advance of Isis in Iraq and Syria.
New
financial forecasts – FX – Nordea
New
financial forecasts – Rates – Nordea
FINNISH
Talousnäkymät - Viiman armoilla – Nordea
Suomi: Miten alas voi vajota? | Euroalueen näkymät ovat
laihat | Yhdysvallat piristää maailmantaloutta
Suomen unohdettava reilu kilpailu – Risto
Pennanen / TalSa
Suomen pitää hylätä sinisilmäinen usko reiluun
kansainväliseen kilpailuun ja opittava vetämään reippaasti kotiinpäin. Lisäksi
päättäjien on lopetettava kinastelu ja kaivettava talvisodan henki esiin.
Nordea syyttää hallitusta toimintakyvyttömyydestä – Verkkouutiset
"Vain ihme voi kääntää talouden plussalle"
Nolla on eurotalouden ja -korkojen uusi normaali – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Talouskasvun ja korkojen vaihtelu on omanlaistaan
epävakautta, jollaisesta euroalue näyttää pääsevän eroon. Eurotalouden uusi
vakaus on tosin toista maata kuin päättäjät haluaisivat: talous halvaantuu
kohti absoluuttista vakautta, jossa mikään ei liiku ja nolla on uusi normaali.
http://www.taloussanomat.fi/jan-hurri/2014/09/03/nolla-on-eurotalouden-ja-korkojen-uusi-normaali/201412163/12
Suomi on yhden shokin päässä neljännestä miinusvuodesta
– TalSa
Suomen talous on Nordean ekonomistien mukaan vain yhden
shokin päässä neljännestä supistuvan talouden vuodesta samoin kuin
deflaatiostakin vuonna 2015. Kuluvana vuonna talouden voi kääntää plussalle
enää vain ihme.
Painajainen Kansakoulukujalla – Markku
Huusko / US
Elina Lepomäki (kok): Euron valuvikoja ei ole
edelleenkään korjattu – YLE
Euro, budjettikuri ja SuperKommissaar – Juhani
Huopainen / US