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EUROPE
German
politics: The Alternative’s astonishing ascent – The
Economist
As the
large centrist parties become more alike, the radical fringe gets stronger
France
and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity – Spiegel
The debate
over Germany's insistence on euro-zone austerity has flared anew as an ailing
France continues to demand economic stimulus. The European Central Bank may now
be siding with Paris, leaving Merkel looking increasingly alone.
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Undeclared
War: Putin's Covert Invasion of Eastern Ukraine – Spiegel
Moscow has
continued to deny direct involvement in the fighting in eastern Ukraine. But
evidence to the contrary continues to mount. NATO says up to 1,000 Russian
soldiers have joined the fray and the pro-Russian separatists have made a
remarkable turnaround.
Ukraine,
Russia and the West: The long game – The
Economist
The sad
reality is that Vladimir Putin is winning in Ukraine. The West must steel
itself for a lengthy struggle
The war
in Ukraine: Reversal of fortune – The
Economist
Now willing
to use Russian troops more or less openly in eastern Ukraine, Vladimir Putin
has made decisive progress toward his goals
The
economic battleground: Too smart by half? – The
Economist
Effective sanctions
have always been hard to craft
Guest
post: how vulnerable is Europe to a gas war? – FT
The cost of
cutting off gas to Europe is also a cost to the Russian state. Gazprom would
forego €4bn to €4.5bn of revenues. Yet this is equal to just 3.5 per cent of
its annual revenues. For several years, Gazprom has earned far more money on
the domestic market and from other CIS countries than from exports to Europe.
The events of recent months have shown that when push comes to shove, if Putin
is forced to choose between Russia’s national interest and Gazprom’s bottom
line, he clearly will go with the former.
The
European Union appears determined to impose more sanctions on Russia, whether or not the warring sides
in Ukraine can sustain a cease-fire.
European
Union diplomats approved the EU’s broadest sanctions yet against Russia, highlighting doubts that a cease-fire
in Ukraine will hold.
Leaders
of Russia, Ukraine say ceasefire holding – Reuters
The
presidents of Russia and Ukraine said that a ceasefire between Ukrainian
government forces and pro-Russian separatists was holding up fairly well and
they discussed urgent humanitarian aid for the shattered region.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
The ECB
Throws down the Gauntlet – PIIE
No amount
of fiscal and monetary stimulus is going to restore business confidence and
private investment in France and Italy in the absence of credible structural
reforms. Every actor in Europe therefore has good reasons to act. The ECB just
raised the pressure a little more.
Why
Draghi's ABS "Stimulus" Plan Won't Help Europe's Economy – ZH
It takes the
ECB about three months to buy 1 billion euros of these securities, "the
number that's circulating the market is 500 billion euros, but where is he
going to get it from?" Add to that the report from Die Welt that The ECB
lacks sufficient expertise for ABS purchases
UNITED STATES
EMPLOYMENT DATA
5 Takeaways
from the August Employment Report – WSJ
Much
worse-than-expected employment report in August – Nordea
Very
disappointing job report – too bad to be true – Danske
Bank
US
Employment Situation – August 2014 – Global
Macro Monitor
Here’s Why
You Shouldn’t Worry About the Jobs Report – WSJ
Payroll
Employment: Best Years, Worst Month – Calculated
Risk
US labor
markets Q&A – Sober
Look
ASIA
China’s
shadow banks: A moving target – The
Economist
Will rising
defaults and stricter rules halt the breakneck growth of China’s shadow banks?