4th Sep - ECB's dovish surprise, Ukrainian solution?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Wednesday: Hope on Ukraine, waning ECB

Tuesday: Eyes on Ukraine and ECB

Credit Guest: The European Catharsis

Monday: US Labour day, big events this week

W/E: Off-Topic & Finnish

W/E: Markets & Economics

W/E: The World

W/E: Weekly Support

W/E: Best of the Week

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

EUROPE

Riksbank Holds Rates in Bet Deflation Threat to Fade – BB

Sweden’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged and stuck to a plan to tighten policy at the end of next year in a bet that a surprise half-point cut in July was enough to fight back the threat of deflation.

  UKRAINE / RUSSIA

Putin unveils Ukraine ceasefire plan, France halts warship – Reuters

Finland most vulnerable to Russian gas cut-off – euobserver

New sanctions on Russia depend on events in coming hours: Hollande – Reuters

EU sanctions to target Russian oil groups – FT

Ukraine and rebels back peace plan, ceasefire from Friday – Reuters

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (BEFORE)

ECB meeting: we expect a very dovish statement – Danske Bank

Don't pin all your hopes on SME asset-backed securities – Coppola Comment

Central support for hard-pressed SMEs in the periphery would probably help to repair those economies. But the ABS issuance and purchase programme alone will not be enough. In the absence of other measures, reliance on such a programme would simply create moral hazard for lenders, securitisers and regulators.

Dear eurozone, why can’t we all just get along? – FT

Is ECB trying to force Merkel to offer fiscal support, by threatening QE?

Without German Support, QE In The Euro Area Remains A Distant Dream – Forbes

At Jackson Hole, Draghi gave a clear indication that QE would only be done in partnership with fiscal easing. So far, Germany has shown no support whatsoever for Draghi’s proposal that core countries should ease their fiscal stance to improve domestic demand and raise core inflation

Could German Stimulus Stave Off ECB QE? – WSJ

A European savings glut or just mis-priced risk? – FT

Europe is creating its own saving glut just like Japan. This creates low growth and low inflation as the private sector saves rather than consume.

Deflation in Europe is Just Beginning – ZH

Draghi Push for ECB Easing Intensifies Focus on ABS Plan – BB

Five Questions for Mario Draghi to Answer Today – BB

Will the ECB Take Action? – BB TV

Draghi will need to impress today to push the euro even lower – TradingFloor

The spotlight is squarely on Mario Draghi's press conference today as we find out how much dovishness he delivers and how much is already priced into the very weak euro.

Why QE speculation is so 'terribly sad' – Saxo TV

The markets are eagerly anticipating news on Thursday from the ECB as to whether it's going to bring in some sort of QE programme. Bill Blain, from Mint Partners, calls the speculation "terribly sad". And BGC Partners' Michael Ingram tells Lea Jakobiak in London that he doubts any such sort of easing would be legal.

ECB and More – Marc to Market

We think that improving the likelihood of strong participation at the TLTRO is a key goal of today's ECB meeting.  A small repo rate cut could help, as well as tweaking some of the "modalilties" or rules of engagement.  Draghi will also likely reinforce ideas that an ABS purchase program is highly likely, and there are other measures the ECB can take within its mandate.

Draghi plays QE brinkmanship with Merkel: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard – TradingFloor

ECB Preview: A ‘Jug Full of Jaw-Boning’? – WSJ

Can the ECB’s Asset-Backed Securities Plan Work? – WSJ

Changes in the Draghi speech at Jackson Hole – ECB Watchers

ECB preview - Dovish Draghi to double down on easing? – Open Europe

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (AFTER)

Press release Monetary policy decisions – ECB

Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A) – ECB

ECB modifies loan-level reporting requirements for some asset-backed securities – ECB

ECB publishes final list of significant credit institutions – ECB

Now we've seen the cut, what will Draghi say at the conference? – TradingFloor

ECB cuts main refinancing rate to 0.05% from 0.15% * Possible surprises – will ABS/covered bond purchase plan be revealed? * Consolidation on cards for exchange rates

Draghi Delivers – Marc to Market

After much fanfare, the ECB has surprised the market.  It delivered a 10 bp cut in key rates and committed itself to a ABS/covered bond purchase scheme to start next month. 

Draghi acts – FT

ECB's Draghi revises down inflation forecast for 2014 to 0.6% - TradingFloor

ECB cuts main financing rate to 0.05% from 0.15% * Draghi cuts inflation forecast for 2014 to 0.6% from 0.7% * Decision to cut rates was "not unanimous"

EURUSD Plunges Below 1.30, Eurobond Yields Turn Negative – ZH

Mario Draghi Delivers Fresh ECB Plan – WSJ

ECB cuts rates to ward off euro zone deflation threat – Reuters

ECB Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rates as Outlook Darkens – BB

ECB Readying Broad Asset-Backed Purchases After Rate Cut – BB

5 Takeaways From the ECB’s September Meeting – WSJ

Does the ECB’s New Stimulus Amount to QE? – WSJ

ECB eased monetary policy further - supports June easing – Danske Bank

Beecroft: Mario Draghi is "out of ammo" – Saxo TV

The ECB Launches Quasi-QE – WSJ

Reactions To the ECB’s Moves – WSJ

Mario Draghi Sends Stern Reply to Paris – WSJ

Draghi’s Gambit – The Reformed Broker

Draghi’s intervention startles markets – FT

ECB cuts rates and agrees to purchase asset backed securities

Editorial Draghi launches his counter attack – FT

Draghi brings out ABS rocket boosters – FT

Live blog: ECB cuts rates – WSJ

Live blog: ECB cuts rates – FT

[Reference] ABS: The key to unlocking Europe's credit markets? – Bruegel

UNITED STATES

NFP preview: Why we should expect a cool 250,000 print – TradingFloor

5 Things to Watch in Friday’s Jobs Report – WSJ

Private Payrolls in U.S. Climb Less Than Forecast in August – BB

July Trade Deficit Better Than Expected, But Excluding Oil Remains Near Record High – ZH

Trade Gap in U.S. Unexpectedly Narrows to Six-Month Low – BB

Trade Deficit decreased in July to $40.5 Billion – Calculated Risk

Service Industries in U.S. Expand at Fastest Pace in Nine Years – BB

ISM Non-Manuf.: August Composite at Another Record High – dshort

ISM Services Index Cruises to a Nine Year High – Bespoke

ASIA

  BANK OF JAPAN

BoJ only marginally more dovish, no signs of imminent easing – Danske Bank

BOJ Shows Subtle Signs of Cautiousness – WSJ

BOJ Kuroda Voices Support for Weaker Yen – WSJ

BOJ Keeps Record Easing as Kuroda Aims to Stoke Recovery – BB

OTHER

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: Friday’s Jobs Report Next Clue on Likely Fed Policy Path * U.S. Regulators Tweak Final Liquidity Rule for Large Banks * Ignoring Doubters, Indian Central Bank Chief Tackles Inflation * Bank of Japan Stands Pat on Policy * Bank of England Leaves Policy Unchanged As it Awaits Wage Rises

Daily Macro – WSJ

European markets are in a holding pattern ahead of the European Central Bank, which, after no action from either the Bank of England or the Bank of Japan, at least has the prospect of delivering a lively press conference by President Mario Draghi. Market expectations of a more aggressive policy move from the ECB have surged following Mr. Draghi’s recent Jackson Hole speech, where he hinted about the possible need for quantitative easing. The thinking is that Mr Draghi will probably stick to jawboning for the next couple of meetings at least, with delicate politics leaving him few options to act as soon as this. But he will need to select his words very carefully in the press conference.

FX Board: EUR craters on ECB dynamism – TradingFloor

The euro was weaker across the board, with the symbolic 1.3000 level already coming into view in EURUSD. Can the euro maintain such a strong downward momentum? US data to shake USD pairs tomorrow.

Great Graphic: Central Bank Balance Sheets – Marc to Market

EMEA Weekly – Danske Bank

FINNISH

Pääkirjoitus: Talouden jättiläiset kulkevat eri tahtiin – HS

Pääkirjoitus: Porvarihallitusta puuhataan jo – HS

Ekonomisti: Määrällinen elvytys voi iskeä näpeille – TE

Ylen salaiset rekrytoinnit ovat yleisradiotoiminnan arvojen vastaisia – Kimmo Saarikko / US

Nobelin palkinto suomen eduskunnalle? – Matias Härkönen / US

Stubb hirttäytyy Kataisen napanuoraan – Ari Alsio / US

Putin hämmentää soppaa - Suomella Nato-kokouksessa kovemmat panokset kuin koskaan – IS

Nato-gallupit antavat kannatuksesta väärän kuvan – Jukka Hankamäki

Kokoomuksen meikki tippuu – IL

Katainen ehosti ylimielisenä pidetyn kokoomuksen työväenpuolueeksi. Nyt meikki tippuu.

Päätös Natosta on tehtävä nyt – Hannu Visti

Kommentti: Liittyykö Suomi kohta Natoon? – IS

Tällaisen sopimuksen Suomi allekirjoittaa tänään

Suomi allekirjoitti isäntämaasopimuksen – IL

Pekka Ervasti: Hyvä meininki! #kokoomus – YLE

Taru Tujusen lähtö ja Räty-Männistö -diilin mahalasku osoittavat, että kokoomuksen pakka on ihan sekaisin, kirjoittaa Pekka Ervasti blogissaan.

Euroalueen talous jumittaa – rahaliiton ulkopuoliset valtiot kasvun tiellä – YLE

Pellervon taloustutkimuksen Markus Lahtinen ei syytä rahaliiton maiden vaikeuksista euroa. Sen sijaan hänen mielestään eri maiden sisäiset tekijät selittävät sitä, miksi eri maat kulkevat nyt eri suuntiin.