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EUROPE
What
macroeconomic policies for the Eurozone? – voxeu.org
In a recent
column, the authors suggested coordinating monetary and fiscal expansions in
the Eurozone through a money-financed temporary tax cut. The effectiveness of
their proposal, however, has been questioned. In this column, the authors
address some of the criticisms. They argue that the counter-cyclical fiscal
policies adopted by the US and the UK, together with monetary easing, had
a stabilising effect on output. Moral hazard due to the more lax monetary and
fiscal policies is avoidable, increasing the credibility of the future spending
cuts.
Breaking
Bad habits in the Eurozone – TradingFloor
Germany's Eurosceptics threaten Eurozone
rescue efforts * Debt and unemployment a double whammy for Spain * Former finance minister
highlights French deficit
Germany’s Economic Mirage – Project
Syndicate
Philippe
Legrain: For 60 years, successive German governments sought a more European Germany. But now, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s
administration wants to reshape Europe’s economies in Germany’s image. This is politically unwise
and economically dangerous.
The
German Exception to the Debt Explosion – WSJ
Debt has
soared across all major economies since the turn of the century. Except in Germany, according to data from McKinsey
Global Institute, from a study called “Debt and Deleveraging” due to be
published this winter.
Nordic
Outlook - September 2014 – Danske
Bank
Denmark:
economy has disappointed but we remain cautiously optimistic * Sweden: slow
growth primarily due to weak growth in the export markets * Norway: oil
investments are dragging down growth but activity remains high due to strong domestic
demand and higher exports * Finland: the Russian recession and austerity
measures are weighing on the Finnish economy
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Keynote
speech by Mario Draghi – ECB
ECB's
Draghi says Russian downturn to affect European demand – Reuters
Draghi said
the downturn of the Russian economy would affect Europe, although the impact was likely to
be limited given the relatively small scope of Europe's trade with Russia.
Euro
Shows Draghi Succeeding Where Loans Fall Short – BB
Traders are
showing confidence in Mario Draghi’s ability to weaken the euro and stave off
deflation, even as the initial results of a key part of the European Central
Bank president’s plan fell below estimates.
Former
German top judge says ECB could face more legal challenges – Reuters
The ECB
could face more legal challenges over the policy tools it has deployed to shore
up confidence and boost growth in the euro zone, Udo di Fabio, a former judge
of Germany's Constitutional Court, said on Wednesday.
ECB's
test may not be final word on health of Europe's banks – Reuters
It has been
billed as a make or break moment for Europe's banks: the publication of
rigorous industry-wide health checks next month after three previous tests
failed to spot problem lenders.
MACRO NUMBERS
Monetary
Developments in the euro area Aug 2014 – ECB
Weak euro
zone lending data underscores need for ECB stimulus – Reuters
Euro area
money supply accelerates in August – TradingFloor
UNITED STATES
Watch US
inflation expectations – Sober
Look
China's "no stimulus" pledge
and falling commodity prices are sending US inflation expectations to
multi-year lows.
Fed Has
Window to Alter Guidance at Next Meeting – WSJ
The Federal
Reserve may have little choice but to change its forward guidance on interest
rates next month, at least a little.
MACRO NUMBERS
New Jobless
Claims at 293K, Better Than Expected – dshort
Initial
Jobless Claims Rise 12k, Hover Near 14-Year Lows – ZH
Durables
Drop Follows Record Boeing-Driven Surge; Ex-Transports In Line – ZH
Durable
Goods Report: Up 0.7% Excluding Volatile Transportation Orders – dshort
US durable
goods orders, initial jobless claims in line – TradingFloor
The "Real"
Goods on the Today's Durable Goods Data – dshort
ASIA
PBoC chief
exit – a recurring rumour – FT
Rumours
that China’s long-serving central bank governor will soon
be replaced have been swirling around Beijing for the past couple of weeks as the
country’s leaders debate the extent of the current slowdown and the appropriate
response.
Say it
ain't so, Zhou – The
Economist
In the world
of rumours, Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank chief, has lost his
job multiple times.
The problem
is China needs more and more credit to create less and
less growth.
OTHER
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Markets
have received some rare upbeat news out of the Eurozone, where the ferocious
credit squeeze seems to be relenting. With new ECB liquidity measures coming in
and Draghi promising more if necessary, all while the euro is weakening, the
momentum in monetary conditions could for the first time in years be headed in
a more constructive direction to promote badly needed growth. Offsetting that
positive news: the direction of monetary policy out of China could be thrown in doubt if Chinese
leaders seeking to oust reform-minded governor of the People’s Bank of China,
Zhou Xiaochuan, have their way.
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Da Costa’s
Take: Skills Shortage? Why Low Pay May Still Play a Role * China Considers
Replacing Central Bank Head * Fed Should Be ‘Exceptionally Patient’ on Rate
Hikes, Evans Says * Fed’s Mester Upbeat on Economy, Wants Fed Policy Clearly
Data Driven * Eurozone Credit Squeeze Eases
FX
Update – TradingFloor
EURUSD fell
yesterday to close to the big structural support at 1.2750 * GBPUSD drops after
failing to maintain above 1.6400 level * USDJPY bounces back into the range as
US equity market rallied
FX Board:
USD strong but JPY pairs also in focus – TradingFloor
The
strength of the USD is continuing, with the greenback pulling to fresh highs
versus the euro and the Antipodeans. However, we are also focusing on the JPY
today, as a number of JPY pairs are threatening a trend change.
Dollar
Pushes Higher – Marc to
Market
EMEA
Weekly: Week 40 – Danske
Bank
FINNISH
Lisää siirtolaisia Suomeen? – IL
EU:ssa on jälleen vahvasti esillä taakanjaon muuttaminen. Se
tietäisi lisää siirtolaisvastuuta Suomelle.
Kelan tutkijat: Maahanmuuton vaikutus huoltosuhteeseen ”vähemmän
selvä” – PS
"Kokoomus ei enää peittele oikeistolaisuuttaan"
– Verkkouutiset
Keskustan kansanedustaja Mika Lintilä moittii kokoomuksen
veronkevennyslinjaa, jonka kokoomus rahoittaisi vähentämällä julkisia menoja ja
kiristämällä kulutusveroja.
Perussuomalaiset vaativat voimakkaita toimia jihadismia
vastaan – YLE
Perussuomalaisten eduskuntaryhmä on pettynyt hallituksen
toimintaan ISIS-järjestön aiheuttaman uhan edessä. Kansanedustajat vaativat
hallitusta reagoimaan myös YK:n turvallisuusneuvoston päätöksiin.
Etla: Suomi joutuu EU:n tehostettuun budjettivalvontaan
– Verkkouutiset
Julkisyhteisöjen rahoitusalijäämä syvenee ja julkinen
velkaantuneisuus kasvaa selvästi tänä vuonna, toteaa Elinkeinoelämän
tutkimuslaitos Etla.
Hallituksen olisi harkittava työnantajamaksujen
alentamista kilpailukyvyn parantamiseksi – ETLA
EK:lta Kasvun manifesti: Tekoja teollisuuden ja
työpaikkojen turvaamiseksi – EK
1: Verotuksen ja sääntelyn liipaisinsormi saatava vihdoin
kuriin * 2: Kannustetaan uusia ideoita sekä osaavia ja innostuneita tekijöitä:
investoidaan tutkimukseen, koulutukseen ja kansainvälistymiseen. 3: Otetaan
kaikki tehot irti tuotantopanoksista – antaa energian, rahoituksen ja datan
virrata. Eikä logistiikkaverkosta ole varaa tinkiä. 4: Uudistetaan työmarkkinat
kasvun esteestä sen mahdollistajaksi.
Elinkeinoelämää maalaa kauhukuvaa: Halutaanko Suomi pitää
teollisuusmaana? – Verkkouutiset
Yritysten liikevaihto -1,2% 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Tehdasteollisuuden jalostusarvo kasvoi vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Vähittäiskaupan pikaennakko: elokuussa -1,6% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kotitalouksien säästämisaste kasvoi 2014/Q2 – Tilastokeskus
Julkisyhteisöjen alijäämä +0,1 miljardia 2014/Q2 – Tilastokeskus