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EUROPE
Charlemagne:
Let’s stick together
– The
Economist
The
European Union realises it is not designed to deal with the disintegration of
members
National
parliaments and the European Parliament– Europp
/ LSE
The
relationship between the two remains contested in the area of economic
governance
Europe's
rebalancing is not borne by Europe – The
Economist
On the
evolution of global current account balances
Europe’s
Austerity Zombies –
Project
Syndicate
Joseph E.
Stiglitz: “If the facts don’t fit the theory, change the theory,” goes the old
adage. But too often it is easier to keep the theory and change the facts – or
so German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other pro-austerity European leaders
appear to believe.
The
entirely predictable recession – mainly
macro
The idea
that a large fiscal contraction shortly after a huge financial crisis would
lead to a second recession is not the wild imagining of a group of
‘anglo-saxon’ economists, or a particular macroeconomic ‘school of thought’. It
is just mainstream macroeconomics.
ECB
preview: Buy what, how much and how fast? – Nordea
From the
ECB policy meeting next Thursday, we expect more details on the ABS and covered
bond purchase programmes but no full clarity about size and time horizon. The
door will be open to whatever further it takes, which will allow the market to
continue to price in further easing. Sovereign QE is not our base case.
DEBATE
A Modest
Proposal for Resolving the Eurozone Crisis, Version 4.0 – Varoufakis
Yanis
Varoufakis, Stuart Holland, and James K. Galbraith: Following a sequence of
errors and avoidable delays Europe’s leadership remains in denial about the
nature of the crisis, and continues to pose the false choice between draconian
austerity and a federal Europe. By contrast, we propose immediate solutions, feasible within current
European law and treaties.
Almost
everyone agrees that the Eurozone was a one-legged giant; a monetary union
lacking a political ‘leg’ to stabilise it. If so, why has the Euro Crisis (which
surely strengthened that view on the back of its ferocity and durability) not
strengthen the hand of the federalists?
James
Galbraith & Yanis Varoufakis: Proposals are multiplying – especially as
evidence mounts that the crisis is continuing, despite all the official
announcements of its end. Why not save Europe today, so that we can consider, in due course,
how best to proceed with deeper, more difficult measures later on?
‘Political
union’, ‘more Europe’, calls for a ‘Eurozone economic
government’, or for a ‘Euro Chamber’ within the European Parliament, are not
preludes to a democratic federal Europe. Instead, they are steps towards a postmodern
European feudalism that is, in fact, the very antithesis of a democratic
federation…None of these developments is consistent with a sustainable EU. At
some point, Europeans will shake this monstrosity off their backs and escape
from the iron cage under construction around them. Unfortunately, the resulting
European disintegration will come at a horrendous socio-economic cost.
Frances
Coppola responds to ‘Whither Europe?’: The Euro crisis is over, yes? Not so
fast. It has simply moved from acute to chronic.
Further
modest suggestions: a reply to Varoufakis and Galbraith – Open
Democracy
Simon Wren-Lewis
responds to ‘Whither Europe?’: The European Monetary Union needs to be
improved, not transformed, and it is this obsession with austerity that needs
to change.
GERMANY
German
Central Bank Head Weidmann 'The Euro Crisis Is Not Yet Behind Us' – Spiegel
An extended
period of calm on the bond markets has led many to conclude the euro crisis is
over. But German central bank head Jens Weidmann says in an interview that the
coast still isn't clear and that there is still great need for reforms.
Germany has
long had a reputation for excellent infrastructure. But in recent years, both
public and private investment has dwindled dramatically, and officials are
increasingly concerned about how to solve the problem. They have good reason to
be worried.
Germany’s
economy: Three illusions – The
Economist
Germans are
wrong to assume they can just do more of the same
Not Even
a Dead-Cat Bounce –
Wolf
Street
Russia
Sanctions, Whiff of Reality Sink ‘Economic Expectations’ in Germany
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Putin
Party Lawmaker Drafts Bill on Foreign-Asset Freeze – BB
A member of
Russia’s ruling party proposed a law that would allow the seizure of foreign
states’ assets in the country after the U.S. and its allies targeted President
Vladimir Putin’s inner circle including a childhood friend.
Ukraine
in turmoil: A Somalia scenario? – The
Economist
Neighbouring
regions worry about the Donbas becoming a largely ungoverned swathe of land
Russia
moves to take control of oil firm from billionaire – Reuters
Russia
moved to wrest control of an oil company from oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov on
Friday, seizing his conglomerate Sistema's shares in the firm and deepening
investors' fears the Kremlin wants to reclaim prized state assets.
Russia
at U.N. accuses U.S., allies of bossing world around – Reuters
Russia used its annual appearance at the
U.N. General Assembly on Saturday to accuse the United States and its Western allies of bossing
the world around, complaining they were attempting to dictate to everyone
"what is good and evil."
Putin’s
power politics – FT
The arrest
of Vladimir Yevtushenkov has rattled Russia’s oligarchs who thought close
connections with the Kremlin would keep them safe
Eastern
European risks for Austrian banks – Forbes
Austrian
banks have developed extensive lending networks in Central and Eastern Europe
since the fall of the Iron Curtain. Most of them face deteriorating loan books
and falling profits due to difficult economic conditions in Central and Eastern
Europe, exacerbated by the Ukraine crisis. But none is more exposed than
Raffeisenbank....
Rosneft
Says Exxon Arctic Well Strikes Oil – BB
Exxon’s
$900 Billion Arctic Prize at Risk After Ukraine – BB
UNITED STATES
Watch
that Rising Dollar; It Might Eventually Give the Fed Pause – WSJ
The Fed is
still months away from raising rates, but monetary tightening has already
modestly begun – courtesy of a stronger dollar and its dampening effect on
growth and inflation. The question for investors is: How significant is that
effect, and could it force the Fed to slow down its march toward interest rate
normalization?
ASIA
Yen's
failure to rally sends powerful message – TradingFloor
BoJ poised
to prolong its own QE programme * Wages fail to rise in real terms * Japan's
debt problem out of control, says MP
BOJ
Beat: Inflation Could Slip Back Below 1%, But Policy Remains Unchanged – WSJ
MARKETS
Northern
Lights - Every central bank for itself – Nordea
The heat is
on the central banks in the Nordics and in particular the Riksbank. With a rate
path that looks more like a risk scenario than a main scenario, a downward
revision of the path is on the cards. Everything you need on Scandinavian Macro, FX and Fixed Income!
The
consensus of fund managers is normally right, in that when most people want to
own something it is probably worth owning. Normally being the operative word
here, as when markets turn from boom to bust, or vice versa, that consensus
becomes very wrong. Hence the common desire to make a reputation as the heroic
contrarian who gets it right.
Mixing
Momentum and Value: A Winning Combination? – Alpha
Architect
Why
Stock Investors Should Care What Happens in the Junk Bond Market – dshort
Small
cap underperformance?
– Adam Grimes
Mystery
Man Who Moves Japanese Markets Made More Than 1 Million Trades – BB
Swing
trading basics: The bullish reversal strategy – TradingFloor
Why do
people on Wall Street make so much money? – WaPo
Occupational
Hazards of Working on Wall Street – View
/ BB
Michael
Lewis asks the big question about the army of Ivy League graduates, with
seemingly endless career options, who wind up in finance: What happens next to
them?
Supply
and Demand: Untangling the Market’s Greatest Mystery – Philosophical
Economies
ECONOMICS
If I was
devising a panics and bubbles course… - Long
and Variable
(be sure to
check the extensive comments, too)
Too much
competition, overcapacity, arghh! – FT
Earlier
this week we highlighted the following chart from Matt King at Citi
representing the corporate sector’s seeming resistance to capex:
The rich
aren’t just grabbing a bigger slice of the income pie — they’re taking all of
it – WaPo
Nominal wage inflation has trended
down since the late 1970s – FT
Where
macroeconomics went wrong – mainly
macro
Re-thinking
the lender of last resort – BIS
A
Radical Response – NYT
'The Shifts
and the Shocks,' by Martin Wolf
NEW YORK FED’S REGULATORY CAPTURE
Inside
the New York Fed: Secret Recordings and a Culture Clash – Pro
Publica
When Carmen
Segarra was hired to examine Goldman Sachs for the New York Fed, she bought a
small recorder and began taping her meetings. Here is what she found before she
was fired.
http://www.propublica.org/article/carmen-segarras-secret-recordings-from-inside-new-york-fed
New
Fed/Goldman Tapes Emerge with Familiar Allegations – WSJ
N.Y. Fed
Staff Afraid to Speak Up, Secret Review Found – WSJ
The
Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes – View
/ BB
Secret
Goldman Sachs tapes reveal extent US regulators "captured" by Wall
Street
Secret
Fed Tapes Recorded Goldman’s Capital Game – View
/ BB
What was
Goldman up to with Santander that set off the New York Fed supervisors?
Collapsing mandatory exchangeables, seems to be the answer.
Why the
Fed Is So Wimpy – HBR
Secret
recordings of the New York Fed show regulatory capture on display.
OFF-TOPIC
What If
Counterfactuals Never Existed? – New
Republic
Studying
history with hypotheticals
The
Story Behind Bill Murray And Harold Ramis’ 21 Year Rift – Uproxx
What I
learned after 30,000 posts . . . – The
Big Picture
New
Harvard Research Reveals A Fun Way To Be More Successful – Bakadesuyo
Will
Self: The awful cult of the talentless hipster has taken over – New
Statesman
Our
generation is to blame – we’re the ones who took the avant-garde and turned it
into a successful rearguard action by the flying columns of capitalism’s
blitzkrieg.
At what
point does a video game become a grindingly menial job? – New
Statesman
When the
balance of challenge and reward in a game gets out of sync, players can end up
doing length, tedious tasks in exchange for a “win”. Do we even know what fun
is anymore?
References,
please – The
New York Review of Books
In the age
of the Internet, do we really need footnotes to reference quotations we have
made in the text?
Signaling
Post-Snowden Era, New iPhone Locks Out NSA – NYT
The new
iPhone creates a unique code that scrambles information, disrupting the
investigative abilities of American law enforcement and intelligence agencies.
Four ways
you can see the multiverse – New
Scientist
Hugh
Everett: The man who gave us the multiverse – New
Scientist
Life in the
multiverse means endless possibilities – New
Scientist
Cosmic
inflation is dead, long live cosmic inflation! – New
Scientist
FINNISH
Missä vika – Ruotsin talous kasvaa mutta Suomen ei – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Suomi sukelsi syvemmälle ja toipuu hitaammin kuin Ruotsi,
vaikka talouksissa on enemmän yhteisiä piirteitä kuin eroja. Yksi selitys
kasvuerolle löytynee valuutoista: Ruotsilla on oma valuutta, Suomella ei. Kruunu
pehmensi Ruotsin kriisiä mutta euro pahensi Suomen kriisiä. Yritysjohdolle euro
on silti vaikea puheenaihe.
EU:n talous ja keskinäisriippuvuuden aika – Brysselin
kone / YLE
Suomen Pankin johtokunnan neuvonantaja Antti Suvanto
keskustelee mm. siitä miten hyvin euro toimii, mitä keinoja on olemassa
euroalueen talouden nykyisten ongelmien hoitamiseksi. Lisäksi hän puhuu siitä,
uhkaako EU aluetta deflaatio ja jos uhkaa, niin miten vakava ongelma se on.
Suomeen tulee uusi virasto: Rahoitusvakausvirasto
pelastaa pankit pinteestä – TE
Tutkija arvostelee poliitikkoja: "Koko Suomea ei
voida pitää asuttuna" – YLE
Stasin luomus – Aarno
Laitineni / IL
EKP:n tehokasta toimintaa tuskin tulee – Tyhmyri
Saksan sisäpolitiikka estää EKP:n toimet
ELÄKERATKAISU
Professori: Eläkeratkaisu on askel oikeaan suuntaan –
TalSa
Uusi eläkeratkaisu ei ole optimaalinen tai täydellinen, ja
sen vaikutuksista tarvitaan perusteellinen selvitys. Malli on silti
oikeansuuntainen, arvioi kansantaloustieteen professori Roope Uusitalo.
"Suuret ikäluokat järjestivät itselleen
väliaikaisesti alemman eläkeiän ja paremmat karttumat" – Verkkouutiset
Näkökulma: Mitä eläkkeistä sovittiin? – IL
Sopimuksen peruslinja on, että eläkkeitä heikennetään kautta
linjan, kirjoittaa eläkeasiantuntija Olli Pusa.
SYYRIASSA
TAISTELIJAT
YK määräsi ulkomaisiin sotiin lähtevät taistelijat
laittomiksi – YLE
Viranomaiset voimattomia Syyriaan sota-alueelle vietyjen
suomalaislasten palauttamisessa – YLE
Syyrian taistelualueelle matkustaneet ovat alkaneet palata
Suomeen – YLE
Professori: Suomi tiukentaa terrorismilakeja etunojassa – YLE
Näin poliisin erikoisyksikkö puuttuu kiihtyvään ilmiöön – IL