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EUROPE
Meditations
on the Eurozone and Secession – All
About Alpha
How, if at
all, might the break-up of the Eurozone be accomplished non-catastrophically
Contingent
liabilities and non-performing loans in EU Member States – Eurostat
Periphery
business cycle monitor – Danske
Bank
Greek
political uncertainty is in focus, spillover
to other periphery countries has so far been relatively limited…we expect economic
activity to be supported by the oil price decline and stimuli from the ECB.
Guest
post: Deadly euro dances – FT
A standoff
continues between Greece and its creditors. Peter Doyle, an
economist and former IMF staffer, argues that much more is at stake in the
eurozone.
NORDICS
Danish
inflation below zero for the first time since 1954 – Nordea
Speculation
Against Denmark’s Euro Peg Proving Relentless – BB
GREECE
Greece - Cognitive Restructuring – Macronomics
Syriza and
the rent-seekers – FT
The Greek
Austerity Myth – Project
Syndicate
Greece Needs 10 Billion-Euro Bridge
Funding From EU – BB
Europe To Propose 6 Month Extension – ZH
Greece Offers Debt-Talks Compromise – BB
Greece, Acemoglu and Robinson – Tony
Yates
Greece’s ‘Bridge’ to Nowhere? – WSJ
Greece: Incremental Solutions Will Not
Work – PIIE
Greece: An Economic Tragedy in Six Charts –
PIIE
Greece’s ‘Bridge’ to Nowhere? – WSJ
Schauble: 6
Month Report "Wrong", If No New Programme "All Over" – ZH
Greek
FinMin Varoufakis Warns "Be Ready For A Clash" – ZH
UNITED STATES
On The
Fed Credibility Gap
– Tim
Duy
The Fed's
expected policy path, and any desire for an even more aggressive policy path
pushed by some market participants, is at odds with a secular stagnation
scenario. But it appears something similar to that scenario is price into bond
markets. If the Fed is not open to such a scenario, they risk tightening too
aggressively and turning an expansion that should last at least four more years
into one with only two left.
Musings
on the Long End – Global
Macro Trading
ASIA
China January inflation hits five-year
low – Reuters
China: expect no rate cut despite
disinflation – Nordea
China monetary easing seen to avert
deflationary spiral – FT
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: A Financial Stability Argument for Early Fed Rate Hikes * Central Bankers
Bash “Audit the Fed” Bill * Fed’s George: Raise Rates Early In Cycle To Ward
Off Imbalances * China Inflation Drops to Five-Year Low in January
Daily
Macro – WSJ
China’s consumer price index dropped to
its lowest level in five years, and its producer price index sank even deeper
into annual deflation. As a big contributor to both the world’s supply of
manufactured goods and the demand for commodities, that works in favor of those
who see global deflation continuing to be a threat. But on the other side of
the equation, the International Energy Agency predicted a rebound in oil prices.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
FI
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Greece once again in the spotlight * The
pressure on Denmark is not fading any time soon * After
last Friday’s NFP, we look for further boosts today
Consolidative
Tone as Dollar Awaits Fresh News – Marc
to Market
US Open – ZH
Stocks
Drift, Dollar Stronger, Oil Snaps Rally, Treasurys Slide On Microsoft Deal
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
FX
Update – TradingFloor
Dollar
rally and anticipation of rate hikes gives bulls promise on Friday * AUD, NZD
and CAD have pushed back to important resistance levels against USD * USD needs
to make a show of strength today to avoid more consolidation
From the
floor: No peripheral panic yet – TradingFloor
Davis: Street talk of Chinese policy action
*Fasdal: No sign of Greek contagion...yet * Hardy: USD must rally today,
or else... * Garnry: Blame the dollar for cola woes
OTHER
Riksbank:
chasing the same old tail * Riksbank QE: could it be more likely than markets
think? * EUR rates: is -20bps a ”soft” floor for Schatz? * FX: EUR/USD
undershooting long-term averages is fair * FX: EUR/SEK vols on the rise ahead
of the Riksbank
How To Trade The Greek Dra(ch)ma Endgame In One Handy
Flow Chart – ZH
UBS: currently in “medium and falling”-risk appetite, only
US treasuries will perform if risk aversion increases.
Growth around the World – FED
Still Below the Trend; U.S. Faring
Better than Most
The Canadian housing market – in charts – Sober
Look
Deutsche Bank: Canada’s housing
market is 63% overvalued relative to its historical average
Eichengreen: Cassandras and currency wars – FT
The Eurozone shows signs of moving, at least modestly,
from fiscal consolidation to greater fiscal ease. With sufficiently aggressive
monetary action and supportive fiscal steps, policy can still produce results
even in this environment. Without that action and those steps, however, the
Cassandras of currency wars will be right.
El-Erian: An Accidental Currency War? – Project
Syndicate
Six and a half years after the global financial
crisis, central banks in emerging and developed economies alike are continuing
to pursue unprecedentedly activist – and unpredictable – monetary policy. How
much road remains in this extraordinary journey?
In a bleak economic climate, the only winners have
been the wealthy, resulting in skyrocketing inequality. Is this scenario
entirely right?
Macro Digest: Reasons to be fearful, here's three – TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: This week we've got a whole bunch of
stress indicators that even individually would be worrying. But – converging as
they do in the same week – the questions surrounding the Danish krone peg, Fed
rate policy and the possibility of a Greek exit from the euro are all the more
urgent. It's time to be nimble!
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Suomen vienti yllätti myönteisesti | USA:sta tietoa
avoimista työpaikoista sekä pienyrittäjien luottamusindeksi | Alexis Tsipras
palasi kovalle linjalle
Pääekonomisti Suomen talouden suuri ongelma – Teknologiateollisuus
Vientituloja puuttuu jopa 30 miljardia euroa – tarve
aikaansaada merkittäviä rakenneuudistuksia
Tarjontalinja-esityksen materiaalit – Raha
ja Talous
Paavo Rautio: Kreikka kulkee lippu liehuen kohti rotkoa
– HS
Hirveä työvoimapula – Jussi Halla-aho
Euron heikkoudet on korjattava – Päivi Lipponen
Tauti löytyi, mistä lääke? – Vesa
Varhee / TalSa
Pk-yritysten kannattavuus tippuu ja huoli työpaikoista
kasvaa – Verkkouutiset
Asiantuntijat: EMU-maiden talousvastuuta on vahvistettava – Verkkouutiset
Teollisuustuotanto jouluk. -0,9% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuustuotanto vähentynyt kolmena vuonna peräkkäin – Verkkouutiset
Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset jouluk. +15,2% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Valopilkku: Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset kasvussa – Verkkouutiset
Tilausten nousu antaa liian valoisan kuvan – Nordea