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EUROPE
The days of
casually looking towards Japanese levels as a soft benchmark of how low EUR
rates can go are over. For longer rates term premiums are gone, and accordingly
the flatness of the curve and perhaps in particular the implied real rates are
extreme. Payer positions should be kept in real terms right now.
Investment
in the Euro Area: Why Has It Been So Weak? – iMFdirect
Investment
in the euro area, and particularly private investment, has not recovered since
the onset of the global financial crisis.
Marc
Chandler: Keeping Greece in the euro is about far more than
money – FT
Frances
Coppola: Why Grexit Would Be A Very Bad Idea – Forbes
Greece and educating economists – Simon
Wren-Lewis
Berlin, Why Do You Have a Problem? – Klaus
Kastner
'Grexit'
would have little impact on other sovereign ratings: S&P – Reuters
Greece had a chance to make the euro zone
work better. It blew it – The
Economist
Will Greece’s new government finally undermine
the Szász axiom – Bruegel
Europe needs a lasting solution for the
Greek problem – Bruegel
GREECE CAPITAL CONTROLS
Notenbanker
verlieren den Glauben an Griechenland – FAZ
Leak about
capital controls a sure sign the ECB is falling apart – BI
It’s time
to talk about capital controls again – FT
Greece submits request for loan extension
from skeptical euro zone – Reuters
Greece Loan Extension Revives Wrangling
Over Aid Terms – BB
Greece requests extension, details on
conditions remain unclear – Open
Europe
Greek
request letter for bailout extension – Reuters
Greece
Requests 6-month Extension, Denies It Requests "Memorandum" Extension
– ZH
Greece requests euro zone loan extension,
offers big concessions – Reuters
Greece folds this hand, but long-term game
of poker with EZ continues – Open
Europe
GREECE ANSWER
Germany rejects Greek bailout extension – FT
Greece responds to German rejection by
saying Eurogroup will decide – Reuters
German
finance ministry rejects Greek proposal as insufficient – Reuters
Insert
German Curse Word Here – Krugman
/ NYT
Bundesbank
President Adds to Criticism of Greeks’ Request – WSJ
ECB
QE
Details 3: Why buying at negative is not a problem for the ECB – Danske
Bank
With the
deposit rate at -20bp this is set to be a money machine. Even the German Bundesbank
should earn a positive return on the purchases, although German government
bonds yield negative out to 6Y.
Press
release: Financial statements of the ECB for 2014 – ECB
ECB MINUTES
ECB Set to
Publish Summary of QE Deliberations – BB
ECB to
Provide Record of January 22 Meeting Tomorrow – Marc
to Market
Account of
the monetary policy meeting – ECB
ECB
Accounts Show Buying Sovereign Debt Was Only Adequate Option – BB
ECB
Releases Minutes From Its Historic January 22 "QE Launch" Policy
Meeting – ZH
ECB Record
of January Meeting: Few Surprises – Marc
to Market
5 Takeaways
From the ECB’s January Minutes – WSJ
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE MINUTES
FOMC
participants are getting nervous – Danske
Bank
Key
Passages in the Fed’s January Meeting Minutes – WSJ
First read
is a dovish one – TF
Worried
About Deflation? Fed Puts Focus on Alternate Price Measures – WSJ
Officials
Debated Boosting Cap on Reverse-Repo Program – WSJ
January
FOMC Minutes – Tim
Duy
The key
tail-risk that the FOMC missed – Humble
Student
Fed
officials worried about hiking rates too soon – Reuters
Fed content
to remain patient – Nordea
Fed Minutes Push Out Market
Expectations of Fed Hikes – Bespoke
ASIA
The
aging dollar peg: time for the PBC to bid it farewell – Bruegel
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Fed Minutes Not So ‘Dovish’ Upon Careful Inspection * Fed’s Rate Debate
Heating Up * Fed’s Powell: Leveraged Lending Risks Unlikely to Bring Down Big
Banks * Greece Submits Request for Bailout Extension * ECB to Lend Greece €68.3 Billion Through Emergency
Credit Facility
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Greece formally requested an extension of
its loan conditions. But has it made enough concessions on its anti-austerity
stance for its eurozone creditors to agree? Probably, albeit with face-saving
caveats for Greece’s Syriza government, not least the
prospect for a longer-term deal on loosening Greek austerity. Meanwhile, the
European Central Bank will also be a focus with the first-ever public release
of its policy minutes, which ought to shed light on the governing council’s
deliberations leading up to the decision to launch quantitative easing. By
contrast, the minutes to the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting, released
Wednesday, were distinctly steady as she goes.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Slightly
dovish FOMC minutes * today ECB minutes, Greece expected to ask for bailout
extension * French bond supply * GBP stronger on higher wage
High
Noise to Signal Drives Markets – Marc
to Market
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
The Nikkei
225 is hitting never-before-seen heights as Japanese exports react to the
falling yen. From Japan to the Eurozone, currency cuts seem
an active trend. Is Beijing watching all this?
US Open – ZH
Stocks
Rebound On Hopes Of Resolution To Greek Impasse
FX
Update – TradingFloor
Today’s
first ever European Central Bank minutes will be an interesting follow-on to
last night’s dovish Federal Open Market Committee minutes as we get a richer sense
of the internal debate at the ECB. Elsewhere, AUD is pressured by S&P
ratings agency comments.
From the
floor – TradingFloor
Shock API
build of 14.3m barrels in US sends WTI crude running for cover again * WTI
braced for return to sub-$50/barrel levels as API report outstrips estimates * Brent
also hits buffers on Saudi Arabia ramp up in production, Libya shipment * FOMC
minutes hits USD, but dollar looks set to recover in early morning trading * Alibaba
share fall of one-third from highs makes Chinese giant attractive again * Prospect
of run on Greek banks grows
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fed miettii | Venäjän talous romahti tammikuussa | EKP
julkaisee pöytäkirjan tammikuun kokouksesta
Sotesta täydellinen poliittinen katastrofi – IS
Sote on esimerkki siitä, että Suomi on menettänyt
päätöksentekokykynsä. Suomi on Pohjolan Kreikka.
Sote kaatuu seuraavalle hallitukselle – keskusta etsii
vielä pikasopua – PS
Mitä tehdä Kreikalle? – Osmo
Soininvaara
Pertti Haaparanta: Kreikka on oikeassa – Akateeminen talousblogi
Typeryyden voittokulku – Kreikka ja Saksa ja ehtojen
kohtuullistaminen – Tyhmyri
Valtamedian merkitys yritysten vaikutuskanavana
heikentynyt – YLE
Yhdysvalloissa yhtä toimittajaa kohden on jo 4,6
viestintäalan ammattilaista. Suomessakin organisaatioviestijöiden määrä on
kasvanut, eikä media enää näyttele heille läheskään samanlaista roolia kuin
ennen. Kyse on mediamurroksesta, sanoo Viestinnän ammattilaisten
toimitusjohtaja Elina Melgin.
Suosiiko media vasemmistoa tai oikeistoa? – HS
HS:n Mediakone seuraa puolueiden näkyvyyttä
"Me jäämme liittovaltiojunasta tässä kohtaa"
– HS
Perussuomalaisten nuorisojärjestö kokoontuu Mikkeliin
polttamaan EU:n lipun ja jakamaan markkoja
PS-Nuoret vaativat eroa eurosta ja EU:sta – Verkkouutiset
Perussuomalaiset Nuoret kertoo julkaisevansa ensi
sunnuntaina "eurooppapoliittisen" ohjelmansa.
Soini: Vaalilinjauksiamme oli pakko lykätä törkypostin ja
uhkausten takia – YLE
Perussuomalaisten puheenjohtaja Timo Soini on niin
huolissaan turvallisuustilanteesta, että puolue joutui lykkäämään strategisen
ohjelmansa julkistusta. Hän kertoo saaneensa tappo-uhkauksia, mutta ei halua
retostella niillä.
Timo Soini toivoo vaalirauhaa – uhkailun pitää loppua
– PS
Onko komissiosta EU-sääntelyn karsijaksi? – Sampo Terho