Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
On the
binariness of the euro, or lack of it – Tony
Yates
Fixed
exchange rates and Blame Thy Neighbour – Worthwhile
Failed
Discipline, Failed Reforms and Grexit: Why the Euro Failed – Charles
Smith
Two
interesting institutional documents were released over the past 10 days: the
Going for Growth 2015 of the OECD and the Winter Economic Forecast of the
European Commission. A combined reading suggests that a) there is (ample) scope
for Italy to step up its reform efforts, and b) the time
might be ripe to do so.
EU seeks
to relax securitisation rules – FT
Brussels is making a renewed push to relax rules on an
asset class once blamed for poisoning the financial system as it seeks the
elusive formula for unlocking credit to households and businesses.
French
President François Hollande has lost his majority. That’s certainly the
conclusion that the French media have come to after the country’s Socialist
head of state deployed a constitutional “nuclear option” to bypass the France’s
national assembly and ram through a reformist economic law
SNB Seen
Cutting Rates to Shield Economy After Franc Shock – BB
ECB to
Provide Record of January 22 Meeting Tomorrow – Marc
to Market
UK labour market paves the way for a
rate hike later this year – Danske
Bank
BoE: Split
on policy stance longer out – Nordea
NORDICS
Northern
Lights - The unconventional Vikings – Nordea
Central
bankers in Denmark and Sweden have plundered the fixed income
markets by swinging their policy axes. Staring into the negative rate abyss
they have also signaled that this might not be enough. Next to enter the
battlefield will be the Norwegians in March, but so far they seem much less
interested in a full frontal attack. Sweden – Inflation targeting above all * Norway – Lower wage growth and oil prices
* Denmark – Strong defence of the peg * Finland – Still no recovery
GREECE
Limits
to the Greek bank run? – Bruegel
What are
the theoretical and political limits to liquidity provisioning by the ECB?
Yanis
Varoufakis: The Straw That Breaks the Ponzi’s Back? – ZH
Yanis
Varoufakis: How I became an erratic Marxist – The
Guardian
Before he
entered politics, Yanis Varoufakis, the iconoclastic Greek finance minister at
the centre of the latest eurozone standoff wrote this searing account of
European capitalism and and how the left can learn from Marx’s mistakes
Greek
Minister Yanis Varoufakis’s Style Irks His Eurozone Peers – WSJ
New finance
minister flouts decorum, officials say, complicating negotiations over Greece’s debt
Greece faces resistance to extra emergency
funds for banks – Reuters
ECB To
Grant Greece Additional €3bn ELA, €68.3 bn Total – ZH
Greece seeks loan extension – Reuters
Greece Poised to Request Six-Month Loan
Extension – BB
Greece to request bailout extension – FT
Greece says will submit loan extension
request on Wednesday – Reuters
Greece set to request extension but not
accompanying conditions – Open
Europe
The Battle of the Drafts – Frances
Coppola
Greece’s game of chicken is starting to
get dangerous – WaPo
Greece’s Excess Burden – Krugman
/ NYT
Greece - Germany: A Clash of Cultures? – Klaus
Kastner
Greece’s Loan-Agreement Bluff – WSJ
UNITED STATES
Earnings
Roundup – Alpha
Now
Consumer
Companies Struggle With Strong Dollar But Benefit From Weak Oil Prices
FEDERAL RESERVE
Interactive:
Explore Janet Yellen’s Official Calendar – WSJ
FOMC
Minutes – ZH
ASIA
BoJ:
wait-and-see until Q4
– Nordea
As widely
expected the BoJ left its monetary stance unchanged today. Despite the sluggish
growth in Q4 the BoJ sounded cautiously optimistic on economic outlook. But we
stick to our call that the BoJ will be pressured to expand the QQE in Q4 this
year on disappointing inflation outlook. Our end-2016 JPY forecast is 135 vs
the USD.
BOJ's
Kuroda: No immediate need to ease policy again – Reuters
OTHER
“The
most important charts in the world” – BI
Global
Investment Returns Yearbook 2015 – Credit
Suisse
Guide
to the Markets Q1 2015 – J.P.
Morgan
Martin
Wolf: Unbalanced hopes for the world economy – FT
It is
futile to ignore the reality that we have an integrated global system
Martin
O'Rourke: Global energy demand to rise nearly 40% by 2035: BP – TF
Energy
demand to rise 37% by 2035 on back of global GDP doubling * Non-OECD countries to
account for virtually all of the new demand * Natural gas to become ever-more
significant player, edging out coal * Energy efficiency to grow significantly,
but no game changer on carbon emissions * Carbon emissions expected to rise 25%
by 2035
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Fed Minutes Will Show How “Patient” Debate is Evolving * What to Watch in
the Fed Minutes * Online Interactive: Explore Janet Yellen’s Official Calendar
* BOJ’s Kuroda Signals Desire for Stable Yen * BOE Minutes Show Divisions
Emerge
Daily
Macro – WSJ
It looks
like Greece is poised to bow down to reality. But reports
that a deal between Greece and its creditors is close doesn’t
mean there won’t be further reversals and twists between now and a signed
document. Elsewhere, the news was mixed. The U.K. economy continues to boom, with
unemployment now back to precrisis levels, employment at record highs and wage
growth picking up. Japan is looking up, according to its
central bankers. And the Swiss corporate sector is licking the wounds inflicted
on it by the Swiss central bank’s decision last month to abandon its franc
ceiling.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Big central
banks’ day, Fed to signal mid-year lift-off in rates * Markets complacent with
Greek worries, not rattling EUR government bond markets * EUR/USD up on
relative data surprises
Sterling
Shines – Marc to Market
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
The Greek
debt talks do not just represent a conflict between Germany and Greece, as nations like Slovenia resent what they see as Greek
public largesse in the midst of their commitment to austerity. Meanwhile, Indonesia's mining boom has run its course
and the Ukrainian economy continues to contract.
US Open – ZH
Stocks In
Holding Pattern With All Eyes On Draghi And Whether ECB Will Pull Greek
Liquidity
FX
Update – TradingFloor
The USD has
either been on the defensive or stuck in the range, depending on the pair in
question, as the market can’t seem to find a catalyst to spark a bigger move.
Perhaps tonight’s FOMC meeting minutes will provide a shove for the USD view, one way or
another.
From the
floor – TradingFloor
WTI unable
to track Brent rise as 3 mil b/d rise in US inventories forecast * Brent/WTI
spread at $8/b as European benchmark strengthens on Libya * Energy stocks still
taking a hammering despite Brent's 32% rise from Jan lows * Greece concerns
weigh on bonds as EURUSD searches for direction * USDJPY volatilities under
pressure awaiting "120 trigger," says Larsen * Carlsberg mired in
rouble-related issues ahead of Q4 print, says Garnry
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiinan keskuspankki pysyy rauhallisena inflaatiosta
huolimatta | Valuutasta tuli tärkein rahapolitiikan väline | EKP käsittelee
Kreikan pankkien hätärahoitusta
Talouskatsaus – EK
Talousnäkymät ja palkanmuodostus – VM
Tulo- ja kustannuskehityksen selvitystoimikunnan raportti
Kreikka hakeutunee kohti omaa valuuttaa – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Jan Hurri: Kiista Kreikka-kolmosesta ei ole edes alkanut
– TalSa
Kreikan ja muiden euromaiden pitäisi löytää sopu ainakin
kolmeen tärkeään mutta vaikeaan kiistakysymykseen, jos ne haluavat pitää
Kreikan pystyssä ja euron ehjänä. Kiista vaikuttaa vaikealta – vaikka
kädenvääntö "Kreikka-kolmosesta" ei ole edes alkanut.
Pääoma pakenee Kreikasta – maalle ehdotetaan
pääomakontrolleja – PS