12th Feb - Eurogroup post-mortem, sceptical

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Wednesday: Eurogroup's emergency meeting

Credit Guest: While My Guitar Gently Weeps

Random Charts

Tuesday: Tight ahead Eurogroup on Greeceb

Monday: Greece, HSBC leaks, Greenspan on €

W/E: Linkfest

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W/E: Weekly Support

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EUROPE

Euro area macro monitor – Danske Bank

Euro GDP growth for Q4 is due for release on Friday. We estimate +0.4% q/q, which is above consensus of 0.2% q/q. The main driver of our above-consensus expectation is higher growth in private consumption.

Economic Developments in the Euro Area – ECB

Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the FT Debt Capital Markets Outlook Conference in London, 12 February 2015

Still Fishing for a Limit – Marc to Market

Several central banks in Europe have adopted negative policy rates.

Greece could spur Europe’s experiment with bonds that go ‘pop’ – FT

Banks issue loss-absorbing debt; maybe governments should too

  EUROPE CRITIQUE

Germany faces impossible choice as Greek austerity revolt spreads – The Telegraph

"What’s happening to Greece today, will be happening to Italy tomorrow. Sooner or later, default is coming," says Italy's Beppe Grillo

Eurozone leaders believe Syriza must fail and be seen to fail – The Telegraph

If other European countries are worried about Syriza to succeeding inside the euro, they are even more worried about it succeeding outside the euro.

Gareth Harding: The Myth of Europe – Foreign Policy

Adair Turner: Hubris, realism and the European project – CER

Daniel Hannan: Imagine if Britain had listened to the pro-Euro lobby – Capx

Jürgen Stark: The historical and cultural differences that divide Europe’s union – FT

  NORDICS

Riskbank Into Negative Territory, Announces Bond-Buying Program – WSJ

Riksbank decision: playing clever – TradingFloor

Riksbank cuts Sweden’s rates to negative – FT

Riksbank Cuts Key Rate to Negative – BB

Sweden: Going unconventional – Nordea

Surprise rate cut takes repo rate into negative territory – Handelsbanken

Sweden's c.bank cuts key rate to negative, launches QE – Reuters

Riksbank Joins Negative Rate Club – Market Reacts – WSJ

Why Sweden is testing out negative interest rates – FT

  UNITED KINGDOM

If Britain goes: Brexit would jolt the EU’s political order – FT

Inflation Report, February 2015 – BoE

Carney Signals Faster U.K. Rate Increases as Economy Strengthens – BB

Bank of England's Carney speaks after inflation report – Reuters

Bank of England sees strong growth but ready to cut rates if needed – Reuters

Bank of England says UK inflation could fall below zero – FT

Feb BoE Inflation Report post mortem – Tony Yates

Inflation report supports the case for rate hike in 2015 – Danske Bank

Wrong target? – The Economist

Bank of England's Mark Carney: Deflated, but not down – TradingFloor

RIP forward guidance (2013 – 2015) – Reuters

  UKRAINE / RUSSIA

Ukrainian Cease-Fire Sealed After All-Night Minsk Peace Summit – BB

Leaders agree Ukraine ceasefire after all-night talks – FT

Ukraine Gets IMF-Led $40 Billion Aid Accord to Avert Default – BB

IMF unveils $17.5bn Ukraine rescue plan – FT

Minsk 2.0 - not a game changer for the Russian rouble – Danske Bank

Ukraine's new bail-out: The austerity to come – The Economist

  GREECE

Greece Said to Offer Euro Area Four Principles for Talks – BB

Merkel Said to Avoid Meeting Tsipras, Doubt Tax Plans – BB

Greece, Eurozone Ministers at Fundamental Loggerheads – Yves Smith

Greece, euro zone: No deal – Reuters

Eurogroup Fails to Agree to Next Greek Bailout Steps – BB

The (almost) agreed eurogroup statement on Greece – FT

Eurogroup farce ends with nothing to give or say on Greece – TradingFloor

Greece, euro zone fail to agree on debt, to try again on Monday – Reuters

What we think happened in the 'missing hour' – BI

Eurogroup Meeting - Everything Went According to Plan! – Klaus Kastner

Long night of talks in Brussels and Minsk – Reuters

Greek Economic Tragedy Sets Scene for Varoufakis on Debt – BB

Greek bailout talks with Europe break down – FT

EZ and Greece fail to even reach agreement on framework for negotiations – Open Europe

Open Europe raises risk of Grexit to 40% - Open Europe

Why a Grexit should (and would) be vetoed – Sony Kapoor

Greek PM Tsipras in Brussels as clock ticks on EU bailout – Reuters

Deutsche Bank’s Big Picture Update – ZH

Greece To ECB: "Get To Work, Mr. Draghi" – ZH

'Grexit' would be no easy ride for austerity-weary Greeks – Reuters

Anna Diamantopoulou: Growth, not Grexit – Project Syndicate

Last Night at Eurogroup: Varoufakis vs Greece’s Creditors – WSJ

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Eurozone QE Could Fall on Barren Ground, Warns ECB Economist – WSJ

Biggest Risk to Program is if Governments Don’t Reform Economies, Says Peter Praet

Benefit of ECB’s Bond Buying: Fiscal Breathing Room – WSJ

Countries, Such as Spain and Italy, Gain Leeway to Stabilize Their Debt Ratios

Greek banks solvent at the moment - ECB's Jazbec – Reuters

Greek banks on emergency funding must remain solvent: ECB's Praet – Reuters

ECB policymakers hold teleconference about Greek bank liquidity – sources – Reuters

Stealth Greek Bank Run: ECB Hikes Emergency Lending To EUR 65 Billion – ZH

UNITED STATES

WSJ Survey: Forecasters See Blue Skies Ahead, But Check Back Later – WSJ

Retail Sales Plunge Twice As Much As Expected – ZH

U.S. retail sales weak, consumer spending gauge barely rises – Reuters

Another Disappointing Retail Sales Report – BB

Retail Sales decreased 0.8% in January – Calculated Risk

ASIA

Australian Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.4% in January – BB

BOJ Is Said to See Extra Stimulus Counterproductive for Now – BB

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: More Disturbing Findings Emerge on U.S. Productivity Path * Fisher Says Fed Should Move Power Away From New York * Sweden Adopts Negative Rate, Launches QE * Bank of England Signals Rate Rise in 2016

Daily Macro – WSJ

In terms of the investor mood in European trading hours, a cease-fire in Ukraine has trumped the lack of any resolution to the Greek crisis in Brussels, although the former isn’t necessarily good news nor the latter, bad. Russia’s ambitions in Ukraine are unlikely to have been achieved until a land link is created between the country and its newly re-acquired Crimean province. Meanwhile, Greece’s negotiations with its creditors will probably go down to the wire, but some sort of compromise is in everybody’s interest.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea

Stalled Greek talks, interesting central bank signals, oil price rebound losing steam * All eyes on the Riksbank * US yields finally making a real try towards higher levels * SEK may gain on little action from Riksbank

Ceasefire with Russia, No Deal on Greece – Marc to Market

Daily Shot – TradingFloor

No deal reached between Greece, Eurozone * UK housing rally fades to a close * Fed rate hike risk hits precious metals

US Open – ZH

Whirlwind Manic-Depressive Session Sees Futures Slide Then Surge

FX Update – TradingFloor

AUD was pounded on a very weak jobs report. Elsewhere, nothing of note emerging from the EU/Greece talks and it theoretically remains that the euro will stay in limbo. But things are simply too quiet in EURUSD, where something must give.

From the floor – TradingFloor

In terms of what has affected this morning's trading, Australia's shockingly negative employment report has punched a further set of holes in an already weak currency. On the sidelines, however, Greece and Ukraine continue to sway sentiment as concrete statements remain elusive.

OTHER

Majors & Scandi: FX forecast – Nordea

Monetary policy and growth divergence will keep the EURUSD weakening trend intact, on the way towards parity. The UK situation resembles more the US than the Euro area, thus the first rate hike will be moved forward by markets, benefitting the GBP. The BoJ will keep the policy easing, and the response will be capital outflows, weakening the JPY. Improving global growth prospects will eventually support commodity currencies and re-weaken the CHF, albeit volatility will remain high.

Majors & Scandi: Central bank and rates forecasts – Nordea

Bond yields have been falling globally, and to levels one could easily argue are not fully in line with the developments in the global economy, but reflecting strong, and to a large degree policy induced, underlying demand for bonds.

Emerging Markets: Central Bank & FX forecast – Nordea

Our near-term forecast sticks to our call of general EM FX weakening vs the USD in the coming 6 months. We expect weakening pressures to be driven by general negative risk sentiment towards EM FX ahead of the first Fed hike. The recent rebound of commodity prices has left the commodity currencies some breathing room, but they remain vulnerable to any further negative swings in prices.

Goldman: Here's Why Oil Crashed—and Why Lower Prices Are Here to Stay – BB

Numbers indicate that the big culprit in the oil crash has been an abundance of oil flooding the market

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Ei toimia, vain diskuteerausta | USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut päivän tärkein datajulkistus | Euroalueen valtiovarainministerit eivät päässeet Kreikan kanssa sopuun

"Vaikea kuvitella, että kaikki säilyttävät kasvonsa" – TalSa

Eurooppa tulee rämpimään lamassa vielä hyvän tovin ja Kreikka saattaa lähteä eurosta. Näin ennustavat yhdysvaltalaiset talousvaikuttajat.

Eurooppa muuttuu - tavalla tai toisella – Henri Myllyniemi / US

Euromailla monta syytä taipua Kreikan edessä – Henri Myllyniemi / PS