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EUROPE
The
Euro Was a Bad Idea From the Start – Foreign
Policy
Can Europe
finally admit it?
1) Unlike
federations, the EU’s budget is extremely small and nearly entirely dependent
on transfers from its members 2) Fiscal discipline in the EU is long on
institutions but short on shared policy instruments 3) Shared debt is rarely
seen in federations 4) Subnational financial crises have often, but not always,
shaped fiscal responsibility sharing arrangements in federations.
France
and Italy granted reprieve for breaching budget limits – FT
Brussels
has granted a reprieve to France and Italy after they broke EU budget rules,
underlining the bloc’s readiness to bend fiscal regulations in the search for
economic growth.
The
“Plucking Model” of Recessions and Recoveries – Bruegel
Can this
simple idea from the 1960s explain some features of today’s macroeconomic
situation in Europe?
Explaining
Recovery Performance in Europe – Krugman
/ NYT
Spanish
Consumers Embrace Recovery, Enhancing Export-Led Growth – BB
GREECE
Varoufakis
Counts On ECB to Avoid Greek Default in March – BB
What’s next
for Greece? The Debt Timeline – BB
Greece: in
search of the perfect job market – FT
ECB Denies
It Plotted to Burn Greece Bondholders in 2012 – BB
Yanis
Varoufakis interview: ‘Anything’s better than austerity' – Irish
Times
The juicy
interview of Varoufakis – Greek
Analyst
George
Magnus: All Quiet Now, But Can Greece Thrive in €? – The
Globalist
The
Alternative in Greece – Yves
Smith
Clive Crook:
Greece vs. Europe: Who Won? – View
/ BB
Biggest
Bank Run In History: January Deposits Plunge To 2005 Levels – ZH
A Greek
primary issue – Bruegel
One Bank
Research Agenda Discussion Paper [50 pages] – BoE
Video [7
hours] – BoE
Should
central banks adopt a green agenda? – FT
The One
Bank [of England] Research Agenda Launch – Tony
Yates
Help the
Bank of England - And Win $15,000 – BB
The Bank of
England's theory of everything – BBC
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Eurozone’s
Future Remains at Risk, Mario Draghi Warns – NYT
Draghi
warns the future of the eurozone was at risk unless member countries gave up
some independence and created more Pan-European government institutions.
On the
ECB running out of bonds to buy – Global
Macro Trading
ECB to
pay the price – Nordea
The first
sovereign QE purchases by the ECB are looming, and have left core bond yields
trading in a rather narrow range. Contrary to expectations that the ECB will
not find any willing sellers, the initial purchases are unlikely to mark
another leg lower in core yields. Such an outcome could actually trigger some
profit taking, driving yields up a bit. Additionally, while the regulatory
effects on the demand picture are sizable, its effects should not be
overplayed, especially in the near term.
Monetary
Developments in EZ Jan 2015 – ECB
Euro
area: Further signs of stronger recovery – Danske
Bank
Euro
zone lending shows sign of turnaround as morale improves – Reuters
M3 +4.1%
(+3.8%), M1+9% (7.9%), credit +0.1% (-0.1%)
UNITED STATES
How Bad
Could It Get Once the Fed Starts Raising Rates? – WSJ
Key
Measures Show Low Inflation in January – Calculated
Risk
OTHER
The
black hole for dollar liquidity – Nordea
The largest
surprise of 2014 was the disinflation theme which characterized most markets.
The Quantitative Tightening framework helped predict most of last year, and
today suggests that the market may be underestimating the disinflationary
forces from the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet policies once more.
US Q4
growth will likely be revised lower, 0% looms later this year * Europe has consistently beaten the US as regards expectations * Neither
EU nor EM have the heft to compensate when US growth fades
February
2015: The Month In Charts – Alpha
Now
‘Good
Deflation’? It Doesn’t Exist – WSJ
Even ‘good’
deflation constrains monetary policy’s effectiveness
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: That Didn’t Go Well, Madame Chair * Fed’s Yellen Fends Off Charges of
Partisan Tilt * ECB Faces Struggle in Sourcing Enough Bonds for QE * Draghi
Defends ECB Policy Toward Greece * Ukraine Dials Back on Forex-Purchase Ban
Daily Macro – WSJ
With Fed
Risks, Greece Woes Resolved, Global Markets Rally
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Fed less
patient, eyes on US inflation likely to turn negative * Riksbank to initiate QE
programme today, surprising strength of the SEK
US Open – ZH
Stocks
Resume Rise To New Records As US Prepares For First Annual Deflation Since 2009
FX
Update – TF
The broad
USD view remains on hold as Janet Yellen’s testimony failed to provide any
clarity for the market. Overnight, the AUD rally faced a setback on weak Capex
data as the market mulls next Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.
From the
Floor – TF
Brent/WTI
spread widens to highest in more than a year * WTI price continues to stand
still as US inventories rise again, says Hansen * Opec reap benefits from
Brent's rise and market share strategy * China's stocks in sharp rally after
hints on fiscal policy move grow stronger * Europe and Home Depot is a Yes, but
RBS is a No, says Garnry * Bunds hit all-time record and continue to hit new
highs this morning, says Boye
Daily
Newsletter – TF
Asian
markets received a Chinese fillip overnight after China's premier indicated he
might be considering some economy-boosting measures. Now, as the European
session kicks off, the market is braced for a slew of economic data from both
sides of the Atlantic.
Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT
An
alternative for Greece: What happens if agreement with the
eurozone does not last?
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Ruotsin keskuspankin elvytys saa jatkoa | Ranskan
kuluttajaluottamus nousi korkeimmalle tasolle lähes kolmeen vuoteen | USA:n
kuluttajahintaindeksi on tämän päivän tärkein julkistus
Keskustan kannatus kääntyi selvään laskuun – YLE
Yle Uutisten helmikuun kannatuskyselyn perusteella
keskustaan ovat kyllästyneet etenkin työntekijämiehet. Suosion laskua ei selitä
kiivas keskustelu, joka syntyi keskustan aikeista laimentaa keskiolutta.
Näkökulma: EU ei rankaise ketään, ei edes Suomea – YLE
EU:n säännöt joustavat loputtomasti. Ranskan budjettivaje ei
pysy missään rajoissa, mutta koskaan sitä ei rangaista, kirjoittaa Ylen
EU-kirjeenvaihtaja Maria Stenroos.
Yhteiskunta tarvitsee keskituloisten ostovoimaa – EK
Keskituloisten palkansaajien ostovoima on saatava kasvuun
työn verotusta keventämällä. Verotusta ja sosiaalietuuksia tulee lisäksi
kehittää niin, että kukaan pienituloisista ei enää putoa ns. kannustinloukkuun.
Näillä toimilla parannetaan työllisyyttä ja edistetään nopeimmin talouskasvua.
EK leikkaisi valtion tuloja – keventäisi myös veroja
– TalSa
EK esittää vaalien jälkeiselle hallitukselle melkoista
veronkevennyspakettia. Tämä toisi keskituloiselle reilun satasen lisää
palkkapussiin.
EK esittää työn verotukseen 3-4 miljardin kevennystä – Verkkouutiset
EK:n Häkämies: Päästöoikeuksien hinnannousu kompensoitava
energiaintensiiviselle teollisuudelle – Verkkouutiset
Yritysten luottamus talouteen edelleen heikkoa – EK
Kaikkien toimialojen suhdannekuva on on edelleen vaisu, eikä
lähikuukausille odoteta parannusta
Julkisen talouden alijäämä ei poistu ilman määrätietoisia
toimia – Suomen
Pankki
Sivistysvaliokunnan mietintö 24/2014 vp – Eduskunta
Kansalaisaloite: Ruotsin kieli valinnaiseksi oppiaineeksi
kaikilla kouluasteilla
Näin valiokunta äänesti: Keskusta pitää kiinni
pakkoruotsista – Suomen
Uutiset
Verotus on yksi Viron ensi sunnuntain vaalien pääteemoista –
YLE
Tästä Viron veromallissa on kysymys: Autoilijan ja perijän
onnela – YLE
Vähittäiskaupan pikaennakko: tammik. -2,9% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kuluttajien luottamus vahvistui - arviot inflaatiosta
laskivat – Tilastokeskus
Kiinteistön ylläpidon kustannukset +1,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus