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EUROPE
Clive
Crook: Who Made Germany Europe's Boss? – View
BB
Heaven
knows, Europe needs stronger leadership -- but Germany, at the moment, looks poorly
qualified. Its policy makers are unenlightened on the macroeconomics of debt
and deflation, and its officials seem unable to exercise influence with
restraint or respect for all EU citizens.
The Pope's
Revealing Gift to Merkel and the Future of Europe - Marc to Market
The
proposed EU capital markets union aims to revitalise Europe’s economy by creating efficient
funding channels between providers of loanable funds and firms best placed to
use them. This column argues that a successful union would deliver investment,
innovation, and growth, but it depends on overcoming difficult regulatory
challenges. A successful union would also change the nature of systemic risk in
Europe.
Leaving
the EU? [Video] – LSE
Has the
European Union reached the end of the road in the UK? The country has taken on a
competence review aimed at deciding exactly what needs to be European and what
is best left at - or taken - home. Whatever the outcome of the election in May
2015, the subject of EU renegotiation is unlikely to go away.
Swedish
policy makers were forced to take unprecedented measures this month to shore up
inflation
After a
plunge in oil prices, policy makers and analysts in Oslo are now cautioning that this gilded
era is coming to an end.
Why Will
Deutsche Bank Fail the Fed’s Stress Tests? – WSJ
Qualitative
aspects including how they measure and predict potential losses and risks. But
at least it’s expected to meet quantitative requirements, including equity
capital, liquidity ratio or leverage ratio.
How The
ECB's Previous Actions Are Assuring The Failure Of Its Current Actions – ZH
GREECE
Eurozone
awaits Greek reform list – Reuters
Defeat of
Varoufakis will embolden the Eurocrats to con Cameron – Daniel
Hannan
Greek deal
leaves Germans unhappy, tough sell for Syriza – TF
Greece readies reform promises – Reuters
Strategists:
Tough Negotiations and Brinkmanship Will Be Back – WSJ
Troika Not
Happy with Initial Draft of Greek Reforms – Yves
Smith
Greece readies list of reforms for
Eurozone – Open
Europe
What Greece’s Deal Means, and Where the
Obstacles Lie – BB
Brief
Who Hurts
Most If Greece Defaults – not Germany – BB
Brief
Greek
funny money: no thanks – FT
Deutsche
Bank’s Timeline Of 6 Year Greek Tragedy – ZH
Deutsche
Bank: Four more tests – BI
A Greek ‘Deal’
Does Not Solve the Eurozone’s Woes – WSJ
Greece Has to Get Eurogroup Approval for
Reforms; Meeting Set for Tuesday – Yves
Smith
UNITED STATES
Yellen
Heading to the Senate
– Tim
Duy
Yellen
Faces Congress Amid Direst Threat to Fed Since Dodd-Frank – BB
OTHER
Currency
Wars: When zero is too much – TF
John J
Hardy: It's relatively simple – we can't all get a weaker currency * Negative
interest rates are a sign of policy insanity * Deflation will deepen should China decide to devalue * Currency war
looks set to continue....until reality kicks in
FX: the
EUR$-puzzle – Nordea
The EUR got
stuck despite better data, and Greece is only part of the story. Fed hike
threat in disinflation is USD-positive - will Yellen hint change this week?
Gavyn
Davies: The Fed’s global responsibilities – FT
Total
dollar credit to the EM non financial sector has risen from $6 trillion to $9
trillion in the past five years. About 80 percent of this consists of dollar
lending sourced from outside the US itself, and it is not confined to
traditionally “dollarised” economies.
Bridging
the growth gap – AFME
Investor
views on European and US capital markets and how they drive investment and
economic growth
Yield
Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
Danmarks
Nationalbank (DN) has delivered a series of four rate cuts to fend off the appreciation
pressure on the DKK. This has fuelled a significant decline in Danish rates. Meanwhile,
core bond yields have pushed higher. As we have projected, the move higher has
been biggest in the US, while German Bund yields are still
close to lows.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Questions for the World’s Leading Central Bankers * Deutsche Bank,
Santander Likely to Fail Fed Stress Test * St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Favors
Banishing ‘Patient’ Stance * Philippine Central Bank Sees No Need to Reverse
Policy Tightening
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Greece-EU Deal Gives Markets a Boost
World-Wide: In a nutshell, the can’s been kicked down the road yet again – and
that’s allowing investors to take the issue off their radar for the time being
– but the eurozone’s fundamental problems are far from resolved.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Ifo today,
Yellen in Congress tomorrow Yields higher on agreement with Greece USD waiting
for Yellen’s blessing
The
Dollar Pops To Start Week – Marc
to Market
Daily
Shot – TF
A major
shift in domestic wages and inflation indicators is needed – as well as a more
stable international economic picture – in order for this dovish US Federal
Reserve to move on rates.
US Open – ZH
Initial
"Greek Euphoria" Ends As Market Digests Road Ahead For Europe
FX
Update – TF
With Greece
headlines mercifully now out of the way for at least a while, we can get back
to focusing on Fed policy signals this week, as Janet Yellen will make her
thoughts on the US economy and the Fed’s monetary policy known before Congress
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
From the
floor – TF
There is
plenty of room for a surprise either way when the US Federal Reserve chair
Janet Yellen testifies to the Senate on monetary policy on Tuesday and
Wednesday – but mostly to the hawkish side.
Daily
Newsletter – TF
It finally
looks like the Greece story could be moving towards the
rearview mirror at least from a forex perspective and it's Yellen's testimony
on Wednesday and China's return to the markets that should
set the tone for the week.
There is no
agreement yet, and Grexit need not happen without one
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Yellen puhuu kongressissa | Kreikka on selkä seinää vasten |
Tänään saadaan Saksan talouselämän luottamusindeksi
Luovan tuhon tie ulos talouskriisistä – Mika Maliranta / Tieto
& Trendit
Teollisuus pelkää uutta EU-laskua - Soini: Aivan kamalaa
– MTV
Suomen teollisuus pelkää jälleen uutta jättilaskua EU:sta. Isot
EU-jäsenmaat ovat tiukentamassa päästökauppaa ja aikaistamassa muutoksia jo
vuoteen 2017.
Ben Zyskowiczilta raju säästölista – "mikään luku ei
ole ravisteltu hihasta" – Verkkouutiset
Suurimmat säästöt tulevat Kela-tukien indeksien
jäädyttämisestä sekä työajan pidennyksestä vartilla.
Zyskowicz varoittaa plasebosäästöistä - hienoja
tavoitteita vailla konkretiaa – Verkkouutiset
Kansanedustaja Ben Zyskowiczin (kok.) mukaan hyviltä
kuulostavia säästökohteita heitellään ilmassa kevein perustein.
Miksi
Saksaa kunnioitetaan? – Raha
ja Talous
Pääkirjoitus: Kreikka ei voinut voittaa: rahaton maa ei
ole vapaa – HS
Perjantaina Brysselissä järjestettyä euromaiden
valtiovarainministereiden kokousta seurattiin kuin pokeriottelua. Kumpi
voittaa, Kreikka vai muut euromaat? Kuka nokittaa seuraavaksi, vai katsotaanko
kortit?
Pääkirjoitus: Valtio myy lypsävää, ostaa tilalle mahoa
– HS
Viime aikoina Suomen taloutta on verrattu Kreikan talouteen.
On esimerkiksi katsottu, että bruttokansantuotteen kasvua koskevissa
oletuksissa Suomi kuuluu Kreikan kanssa euromaiden häntäpäähän ja että
molemmissa maissa on tarvetta talouden tasapainotuksiin.
PS-nuorten Eurooppapoliittinen ohjelma – PS
Nuoret
Itsenäinen Suomi kansakuntien Euroopassa – oma valuutta, oma
päätösvalta