My 'week ahead': People might realize that European bond yields are high, economies are sagging, debt burdens are still there. Then they might start thinking about the eurocrats who have announced that the rot stops at Greece – “rest of the PIIGS have to provide for themselves”.
In U.S., the debt-ceiling drama will go on, until it ends (my astrologically accurate guess is Wednesday, because it is not too late but dramatically and politically a very valuable late save) and everyone will say never again. Until next time.
After the U.S. mess is solved, everyone can properly focus on the European situation. Meanwhile, bad news will continue coming out of emerging markets but these will be ignored, because there are no better stories than "low public debt BRIC growth market" to sell to clients. Hire me.
View: Social media ETF? Pandora’s business strategy of negative margins and increasing sales? Valuation formulas from 1999, only doubled?
EURO CRISIS
Nice collection of headlines and analysts’ blurts on the euro crisis
Euphoria Wanes as Doubts Emerge? – Zero Hedge
old piece Aug 2010, but now timely
Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, but How – Morgan Stanley
Fitch: restricted default event, Buba: transfer of debts to taxpayers in rich countries
It's Official Now, Fitch Declares Greece in Default; German Central Bank Openly Critical of Deal – Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
Throw in good money, transfer debt from banks to ECB and taxpayers, as long as voters allow
Kicking the Can Down the Road One More Time – John Mauldin via Big Picture
Greek-fake killed made CDS’s less useful, but CDS’s saved Greece from hard restructuring
The CDS market and Greece’s default – Reuters
PDF: How do CDS spreads relate to probability of default – Deutsche Bank
French finmin tells EFSF debt guarantees are only accounting and France does not need to save (deficit 5,7%/GDP, target 3% in 2013 – elections in 2012). Good luck.
No Austerity for France, Just the PIIGS – Mish’s Global Economics Trend Analysis
“Restructuring of Greece's debt will reduce Greece's access to external financing without reducing its debt burden to sustainable levels”
Greece through the rear-view mirror – Cavallo & Xafa via VOX
Eurozone debt crisis: EU growth falls to near two-year low – The Telegraph
The latest Eurozone response: one step closer to the crisis point – News’n’Economics
Older blog with a nice chart showing the changes in sovereign CDSs’ over past 2 years
What do Spain and Vietnam have in common? – News’n’Economics
The PIIGS (not Irish) are getting a lot older: one graph says it all
Interactive service to monitor the debt levels. Don’t even know why I included this link here…
FINANCIAL CRISIS
Includes full US Weekly Kickstart from GS
Weekly Chartology And Key Event Summary – Zero Hedge
Snapshot Update Of US Debt Talks – Zero Hedge
with timeline of important dates coming up
What killed the deal last week, and what might make one happen this week – Washington Post
Everything you need to know about the debt ceiling in one post – Washington Post
Some background, nothing deep
How the Deficit Got This Big – New York Times
Wall Street analysts and economists have this recession recovery wrong – Washington Post
Federal Reserve’s 2010 annual report – on scribd
EMERGING
Emerging markets event calendar
Property Loans Halted in China's 2nd and 3rd-Tier Cities; Is China's Spectacular Real Estate Bubble About to Pop? – Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
OTHER
€M345-Ponzi-guy convicted, Barclays and BNP were biggest investors
Abstract and discussion of implications of a soon-to-be published paper “Predicting Financial Distress and the Performance of Distressed Stocks” by Campbell et al.
Stop Using the Altman-Z Score – Empirical Finance Blog
Tight floats, pricing in dark markets, valuation for FB 100x revenues
Barron’s: Social Networking a Bubble. What Does This Mean? – The Big Picture
Summary and link to the full Resource Limitations 2 on GMO Quarterly, followed by the link to Part1 from April
Recorded Future’s CEO interviewed, his blog etc.
How To Predict The News Before It Happens – Business Insider
Lots of opinions on tech trends
Facebook Investor Roger McNamee Explains Why Social Is Over – Business Insider
The fundamental difference between Apple and Google. Some hyperlinks to blogs from ex-employees.
DIVERSION
Long good articles are nice. This has links to sites that have them, mobile tools to read them without ads or multimedia eye candy, etc.
Youtube link.
Inspirational stuff? Hope it helps.
A father's message from beyond the grave: My darling children, here's how to live your lives when Daddy's gone – Daily Mail
Abstract and link to the paper by Carpenter & Grimmer 2009: deadlines decrease time to decision but have a non-linear effect increasing variance and error rate of decisions
The Downside of Deadlines – Infectious Greed