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Monday, July 25

July 25th LATE


Summary: Euromacro getting worse, interest rates up, CDS's up, bank stocks down.
View: It’s all about the economy – any downturn in Germany would make it politically and fiscally very hard to support the euro system. This is a dilemma with all the austerity-stuff in PIIGS. Hire me.

EURO CRISIS

Sovereign CDSs’ across the board up

Banks with PIIGS risk down

Financial institutions supporting the IIF Greece offer


“Can a bailout fund whose backers include some of the countries it may be called upon to bail out really succeed?”

My favorite folio hatter with known points but in a very, very nasty way



FINANCIAL CRISIS

Reid’s plan – Washington Post with Bloomberg

Very nice read with tons of PMI’s: recessionary  everywhere

Few slides from SG’s research
Global Profit Margins Remain Strong – Pragmatic Capitalism

EMERGING
Good points on CHF vol vs gold vol, CHF-nominated loans in Eeastern Europe affecting central bank policies (article has a link to a previous piece also worth reading)


Turkish delight

OTHER
“..we believe that the next five years will see a significant, secular increase in prices across a range of commodities”

Article on Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein


Oil: Up or Down? – Early Warning

$750m in revenues expected 2011 vs 500 in 2010
http://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-cloud-business-is-growing-like-crazy-2011-7


Includes a link to full copy of J.P.Morgan’s 2011 Investor Sentiment Report

DIVERSION
Interactive chart for comparing current web2.0 IPO’s with dot-com bubble