July 25th LATE

Summary: Euromacro getting worse, interest rates up, CDS's up, bank stocks down.

View: It’s all about the economy – any downturn in Germany would make it politically and fiscally very hard to support the euro system. This is a dilemma with all the austerity-stuff in PIIGS. Hire me.

EURO CRISIS

Greek Credit Rating Lowered Three Levels by Moody’s on Debt-Exchange Plan – BB

Sovereign CDSs’ across the board up

Sovereign Debt Risk Rises on Bets Greek Rescue Won’t End Crisis – BB

Banks with PIIGS risk down

Oh, it’s just another eurocrash [updated] – FT

Financial institutions supporting the IIF Greece offer

How not to draft a sovereign debt restructuring – FT

Greek debt swap — spot the missing banks [updated] – FT

“Can a bailout fund whose backers include some of the countries it may be called upon to bail out really succeed?”

Europe’s Troubled Economies Join the Rescue Team – CNBC / NYT

My favorite folio hatter with known points but in a very, very nasty way

The Dynamics of Doom: Why the Eurozone Fix Will Fail – oftwominds

The “Impossible Math” Behind the Euro Crisis – Pragmatic Capitalism

If there’s an EU credit panic, repos could transmit it to U.S. banks - RepoWatch

FINANCIAL CRISIS

Live Blog: The U.S. Debt Battle - WSJ

Reid’s plan – Washington Post with Bloomberg

Very nice read with tons of PMI’s: recessionary  everywhere

Recession Warning On Europe’s Periphery – EconoMonitor

Few slides from SG’s research

Global Profit Margins Remain Strong – Pragmatic Capitalism

EMERGING

Good points on CHF vol vs gold vol, CHF-nominated loans in Eeastern Europe affecting central bank policies (article has a link to a previous piece also worth reading)

What’s as good as gold, but potentially much more volatile? – FT

CEE: don’t breathe easy yet – FT

Turkish delight

Addendum to Huriyet column: The evil IMF creating a crisis – EconoMonitor

OTHER

“..we believe that the next five years will see a significant, secular increase in prices across a range of commodities”

Winners and Losers in The New Commodity Price Regime - Monitor

Article on Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein

“It’s Too Bad. And I Don’t Mean It’s Too Bad Like ‘Screw ’Em.’” – New York Mag

Succeeding Blankfein at Goldman May Prove Hurdle Too High for No. 2 Cohn – BB

Oil at $120 Becomes Biggest Energy Bet – BB

Oil: Up or Down? – Early Warning

The big bets that the debt fiasco will raise oil prices – Foreign Policy

$750m in revenues expected 2011 vs 500 in 2010

Amazon's Cloud Business Is Growing Like Crazy – Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-cloud-business-is-growing-like-crazy-2011-7

Amazon's next billion-dollar business eyed - Reuters

Includes a link to full copy of J.P.Morgan’s 2011 Investor Sentiment Report

Hedge funds and institutional investors have kissed and made up – for now – allaboutalpha.com

DIVERSION

Interactive chart for comparing current web2.0 IPO’s with dot-com bubble

Is This Really Bubble 2.0? – Tableau