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Tuesday, May 23

23rd May - Terror and good European data

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Merkel's Weak-Euro Complaint Has Two Goals – BB
Hans-Werner Sinn: How Macron Can Unite Europe – Project Syndicate
Emmanuel Macron plunges head-first into labor reform – Politico
France, Germany Push for Tax Harmony – Handelsblatt

IMF needs more realism in euro zone assumptions on Greece – Reuters
Spain's Return from the Periphery – BB

ifo Business Climate Index Hits All-Time High – cesifo
German Ifo business morale hits record-high, lifted by Macron – Reuters
German Upswing Takes Business Sentiment to Highest Since 1991 – BB
France PMI: Output growth accelerates to six-year high – Markit
Germany PMI: Output grows at fastest pace in over six years – Markit
Eurozone PMI: Growth holds steady at six-year high – Markit
Germany’s Busy Factories Bring Fastest Growth in Six Years – BB
Euro area business confidence remains strong – Pictet
PMIs signal solid growth and price pressure peaking – Nordea
Euro-Area Growth Faces Upside Risk as Weak Prices Restrain ECB – BB
Euro PMI almost at rate-hike levels, but path to exit will be gradual – ABN AMRO
European data wrap – Daiwa

Trump Proposes Selling Off Half the U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve – BB
U.S. plan to sell oil reserves undermines OPEC supply management efforts – Reuters
Trump seeks to slash government spending in budget plan – Reuters
Trump budget wants to halve oil stockpile, open Arctic refuge to drilling – Reuters
U.S. Labor Secretary says fiduciary rule to take effect on June 9 – Reuters
Guide to $400 Billion in Saudi-U.S. Deals: Black Hawks to Oil – BB
Don’t Let the Original Trump-Russia Question Fade – BB

BofA Finally Asks "Is The Tech Bubble Happening Again?" – ZH
EURUSD: why so bid? – Nordea
US/GER 10Y Spread: A bearish positive carry trade – Macro Tourist
The populist tide may be yet to peak – Pictet
Four Numbers to Watch in FX - Marc Chandler
Morning Report APACTF
Asian markets traded sideways following reports that 19 people were killed during an explosion at a concert in the UK. Sterling fell slightly on the news and the safe-haven yen strengthened.

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Manchester terror attack, no deal for Greece, Amazon video arrives in Europe

Blast at Manchester Concert Kills 22, London Policing Stepped Up

Danske DailyDanske Bank

PMI and Ifo numbers for the Euro area * Merkel: EUR is “too weak” * Has the EUR/USD gotten a bit ahead of itself?

Morning MarketsTF
A data driven day lies ahead. First out will be the German Ifo Business Climate Index for May which is seen to drop for the first time in nine months. Also UK data is expected to be slightly less positive than previously. The night's terror attack put pressure on the GBP. It remains to be seen if that continues in the European session. Worldwide also the US first budget draft will be looked at closely as it does not only give a hint at where Trump wants to cut and increase spending but also how realistic his view on the economy is.

From the FloorTF
Sterling is seeing limited fallout from the terror attack in Manchester, but a tough negotiating stance from the European Union isn't helping its case. Meanwhile, gold is pressing against upside resistance and commodity trader Noble risks default after a triple downgrade from S&P.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Greenback Remains Soft

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Blast in Manchester kills 19 — No Greek deal — France’s political odd couple

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

US Open ZH
S&P Futs Near All Time High On Strong Euro Data; Oil Drops On Trump's SPR Sale Plans


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar weakness has broadened in recent days and is more or less across the board with NZDUSD and USDCAD the latest USD pairs to push on key levels. Hard to discern where support for the US dollar lies but the action is beginning to look overdone unless US yields are pushed lower by a fresh catalyst.

Kreikan uudesta lainaerästä ei päästy sopuun | Merkel puhui euron nousuun | Tulossa Trumpin budjettiehdotus

Macron ja euroalueen kohtalo Roger Wessman