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Monday, June 12

12th Jun - Macron to win majority

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Theresa May's Disastrous Failure – BB
UK: Minority government is weak from the beginning – Danske Bank
French Election Monitor No. 5: Macron on track to win majority – Danske Bank
Macron Set for Majority in Assembly After First-Round Vote – BB
France Is on the Verge of an Astonishing Political Transformation – BB
Finland: Political crisis threatening the positive economic development – Nordea
Euro political climate brightens – ABN AMRO

Trump's Economic Agenda Is Almost Dead – BB
FOMC preview: A June hike very likely – balance sheet run-off imminent? – Nordea
FOMC preview: Expectations are high but data do not justify a hike yet – Danske Bank

"What Has Happened in Macroeconomics (and what still needs to be done)" – Noah Smith
UK and US Increase the Odds That Conflict Will Lead to Political Ineffectiveness – Ray Dalio
El-Erian: Anti-Establishment Politics Is Far From Going Away – BB

Macro Monday: After the polls the Fed cometh – TF
FX weekly: a bouncy dollar? – Nordea
Key Events: Fed, BOJ, BOE, SNB, US Inflation And Retail Sales – ZH

GS: "The Last Time The Market Acted Like This Was At The Tech Bubble Peak" – ZH
Volatility Returns (to the NASDAQ) – Global Macro Monitor
JPM: More "Tech Wreck" Pain Coming, Lazy Money Was Chasing Momentum – ZH
SocGen: "This Happens When Algos Head For Exit At The Same Time" – ZH
SocGen: The more momentum a stock had, the more it plunged on Friday – BB

Morning Report APACTF
After the surprise UK election result Theresa May is looking increasingly vulnerable to leadership challenge as she tries to reach a deal to govern.

FirstFT Daily Briefing FT
Macron landslide, ‘dead woman walking,’ lunch with Bernie

UK Faces Prolonged Uncertainty, Investors Mull the Corbyn Effect

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Macron landslide, Finnish government crisis, setback for M5S * Busy week ahead: central banks and inflation numbers * Rebound in US yields with more room to run * We see more downside for the EUR/USD

Morning MarketsTF
French President Emmanuel Macron's bloc won a bigger-than-expected victory in the first round of France's legislative elections at the weekend but the turnout was dismal. European markets should react by starting in the green as it seems to be more likely now that the pro-European leader can push through large parts of his reform agenda.

From the FloorTF
Financial markets widely expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on Wednesday, but the hike will be a dovish one, says Saxo Bank's FX strategy chief John Hardy. FX markets are waiting for UK government's position on Brexit to take shape following the Tories' humiliating election defeat, which could set GBP up for a rally as the chances of a "soft Brexit" have increased.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Ahead of Central Bank Meetings, Politics Dominates

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Brexit negotiation delays — €430 million to replace Parliament? — Macron landslide looms

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

US Open ZH
"Tech Wreck" Goes Global Dragging Worldwide Markets Lower; Cable, USDJPY Slide


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar has managed the most modest of bounces ahead of this week’s June FOMC meeting which comes at an awkward time for Chair Yellen and company. Elsewhere Macron reaping a mandate for change.

Koronnosto näkyvissä, Fed antaa korkopäätöksen keskiviikkona * Macronin puolue voittamassa parlamenttivaalien 1. kierroksen * Punta heikkeni perjantaina