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Tuesday, August 15

15th Aug - Post-Korea rally pauses

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ECB's QE Questioned by German Judges Asking for EU Review – BB

Real thing or just 'fantasy'? Britain proposes new EU customs deal – Reuters
Factbox: Britain's proposals for post-Brexit customs agreement with EU – Reuters
U.K. Business Faces More Red Tape Under Brexit Customs Plans – BB
The Case for Bank of England Rate Hikes Is Weakening – BB

FX: The Unprecedented UnprintingNordea
The initial effects from a shrinking Fed balance sheet should be modest. Excess liquidity will however collapse in 2018, and then as a result of a much smaller balance sheet. The coming unwind is unprecedented, suggesting it will be hard to price-in.

Tim Duy: Fed Shouldn't View Productivity as an Exogenous FactorBB
The current low-inflation environment offers the perfect opportunity to test whether looser monetary policy can boost productivity growth.

Broad-Based Advance in U.S. Retail Sales Shows Solid Spending – BB
Retail Sales Rebound In July – ZH
Retail Sales increased 0.6% in July – Bill McBride

With Next Recession Looming, Central Banks Better Make Peace With Negative Rates – BB

Financial crisis anniversary – FT
10 years after: a series reflecting on the Great Financial Crisis – Prime

When Risk-Off Dominates Markets, Economies Usually Suffer – BB
Record Number Of Fund Managers Say "Stocks Are Overvalued" – ZH
Range trading in yields to continue for now, but asymmetric risks – Danske Bank

Moon Vents Korea Frustration by Asserting Right to Veto U.S. War – BB
South Korea to Prevent War at All Costs, President Moon Says – BB
It’s ‘Game On’ for War If North Korea Strikes Guam, Mattis Warns – BB
The Sane Way to Live With North Korea's Nukes – BB
How to Take Down Kim Jong Un – Politico

Morning Report APACTF
Asian markets followed the global lead higher – Japan's Nikkei 225 up more than 1% – as the greenback strengthened against the yen.

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Brexit transition deal, Intel CEO quits Trump council, India at 70

U.K. Open to Temporary Customs Union, North Korea Backs Off Guam Threat

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Risk is on again! * Focus on inflation again * CHF and JPY weakens again * Core rates rebound

Morning MarketsTF
Investors swung back into risk-on mode on Tuesday snapping up Asia-Pacific equities and lightening their holdings of perceived safe havens including gold and the Japanese yen as fears of a conflict between the US and North Korea receded further. The rally followed higher closes for US stocks overnight.

From the FloorTF
Volatility has spiked sharply lower, leaving equity bulls free to run... but why are the unpredictable messages out of Pyongyang able to spark such significant price movements?

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Greenback Firms, Encouraged by Dudley and Ebbing of Tensions

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
UK lays out customs plan — Anti-competitive ice skaters — German electioneering

US PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

US Open ZH
VIX Tumbles, Global Stocks And Dollar Rally As Korea Tensions Ease


FX UpdateTF
North Korea’s leadership has finally blinked leading to a recovery of risk appetite across markets and return of JPY sellers. Meanwhile USD shorts continued to get squeezed and could be in for further discomfort on today’s US July retail sales if the numbers rebound from June’s weak reading.

Saksa vahvassa kasvussa * Ison-Britannian inflaatio pysyy korkealla vielä pitkään * USA:ssa vähittäismyynnin odotetaan ponnahtaneen nousuun * Öljyn hinta laski alle 51 dollarin