11th Dec - Quiet, slight bear ahead of risk events

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EUROPE

European Central Bank Glides to a Finish – BB

Economists see ECB ending bond-buying program by end of 2018

Eurozone Outlook 2018 – Capital spending leads the way – ABN AMRO

France and Germany Look Too Alike to Bond Market – LipperAlpha

Dani Rodrik: Does Europe Really Need Fiscal and Political Union? – Project Syndicate

There is a growing sense in Europe, among conservatives and progressives alike, that fiscal and eventual political union is necessary to maintain the euro without damaging economic performance or democratic values. But there is also an alternative, much less ambitious view, according to which only banking union is needed.

UNITED STATES

December Macro Update – The Fat Pitch

Housing and Manufacturing Growth At Multi-Year High. The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

Tim Duy: Expect the Fed to Stand By Its 2018 Outlook – BB

Financial markets see that solid growth will prompt the central bank to stick to three rate hikes despite low inflation.

Bank of America on yield curve – ZH

Curve inversion in 2018, some sort of recession perhaps in 2020 or 2021.

  MARKETS / OTHER

Momentum and Market Anomalies – Alpha Architect

The momentum strategy considerably outperforms the naive benchmark of equal-weighted investments in each anomaly.

Deutsche Bank: 30 Biggest Risks Facing Markets In 2018 – ZH

El-Erian: 4 Developments to Watch in Global Economy – BB

Overlooked events last week reinforced the prospects for better growth: synchronized global recovery, policy progress in US, less structural uncertainty in Europe, market acceptance of higher rates

Gary Shilling: Markets Risk Overvaluing Earnings Repatriation – BB

Domestic plant and equipment spending isn’t being held back by a lack of money.

Investing Lessons from the Dude – 25iq

Enron 2.0? ECB, Global Banks On The Hook For $21 Billion In Steinhoff Implosion – ZH

A Hedge Fund Giant Found Lots of Value in Failure – BB

The world's biggest hedge fund springs from the wreckage of his monumental error.

REGULARS

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Chemists react to Brexit, bitcoin futures launch, fake dinosaurs

WSJ City – WSJ

Bitcoin Futures Open With a Jolt Higher, World Trade’s Power Vacuum

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea

Yuuuuge central bank week coming up * Big moves in USD xCcy basis * EUR/USD higher after job report

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Dollar Mixed to Start the Week, While Equities Firm

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Blockbuster foreign affairs — Brussels so white — Macron lands at Parliament

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

US Open – ZH

US Futures Hit New All Time High Following Asian Shares Higher; European Stocks, Dollar Mixed

Frontrunning – ZH

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Fed nostaa korkoa keskiviikkona | Myös EKP sekä Englannin ja Norjan keskuspankit kokoustavat | Tällä viikolla saadaan myös USA:n inflaatioluvut