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Monday, April 23

23rd Apr - PMIs not that bad

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Flash Eurozone Composite PMI – Markit
Flash Germany Composite PMI – Markit
Flash France Composite PMI – Markit

ECB Is Said to See Scope to Wait for July to Signal End of QEBB
Policy makers want time to judge if economic slowdown persists * Governing Council has had no talks on interest-rate strategies

ECB Watch: Patience is a virtueNordea
We expect an unchanged forward guidance next week. In the current environment, the ECB will want to postpone decisions on the future of its asset purchases for as long as possible. The balance of risks in markets is tilted towards a dovish surprise.

ECB Capitulates On Defusing Eurozone's "$1 Trillion Ticking Time Bomb"ZH

Key Events This WeekZH
Earnings Avalanche; ECB, QE, GDP On Deck

Commodities Crumble After US Says It May Ease Rusal Sanctions – ZH

Investors Dump High Yield Bond Funds Most Since ElectionZH

Earnings Roundup: S&P 500 Companies Clear a High Bar Lipper Alpha
Amidst a high bar, S&P 500 companies have not disappointed and are on track to set a new record, with 79.3% of companies reporting earnings above expectations

Goldman: Expect Higher Volatility As "Buybacks Won't Return For Weeks"ZH
80% of S&P 500 firms are currently in their buyback blackout windows, meaning they generally avoid - but are not prohibited from - repurchasing stock. Furthermore, April is one of the weakest months for the buyback basket, as share repurchase spend is extremely low during the blackout window.

BofA: "The Key Story For The Bond Market Is About To Play Out"ZH
Also Deutsche Bank: fiscal shocks migrating to front end *

Citi: "2018 Is Not Going To Plan" ZH

Where next for central banks?ING
Everything you need to know about central bank policy around the world

Global Quarterly: Rates and Uncertainty on the RiseScotiabank
Global momentum remains strong, but US trade policy is generating much uncertainty * The strength of global demand is leading to a significant increase in most commodity prices relative to last year.

Commodity MonthlyABN AMRO
Geo-politics and sanctions support commodities

Europe in diplomatic push to ease Russia sanctionsFT
Paris-led effort to convince Trump comes after US measures send metals prices soaring

Europe Now Pushing Trump Administration To Ease Russian SanctionsZH

Commodities Crumble After US Says It May Ease Rusal SanctionsZH

U.S. Softens Stance on Rusal Sanctions; Aluminum Plunges BB
Mnuchin says U.S. is reviewing Rusal request to lift sanctions * U.S. statement adds pressure on Deripaska to give up control

After Weeks of Mayhem, U.S. Throws Aluminum Industry a Lifeline BB
Aluminum plunged in London after Treasury’s announcement * Traders get more time to unwind business with Russian company

Global trade watch – Trade war scenariosABN AMRO
Base case US-China trade tensions contained, economic impact limited * We explore two additional negative scenarios, and the macro and monetary policy implications

What Global Finance Chiefs Are Saying About the Global EconomyBB
Trade tensions dominate amid little sign of progress * Policy makers flag several near term downside risks to growth

How China Is Buying Its Way Into Europe BB
China has bought or invested in assets amounting to at least $318 billion over the past 10 years. The continent saw roughly 45 percent more China-related activity than the U.S. during this period, in dollar terms, according to available data.

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
EU budget shake-up, plastic overdose, Queen’s Awards

UBS Posts a Profit Rise, Traders Worry About Liquidity, Why the Flattening Yield Curve Isn’t Just the Fed’s Problem

WSJ EconomicsWSJ
Are States Unprepared for the Next Recession? | Oil Prices Bubble | Amazon’s Pay

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Rising Rates Help Extend Dollar Gains

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Blowing the whistle — Macron, the Trump whisperer — How Obama saved Italy

Stocks Stumble As 10Y Hits 2.996%; Dollar Squeeze Accelerates

FX Weekly: Relative curvature is the new king of FXNordea
While classic rates spreads have not been able to explain the recent moves in the G10 space, relative curvature is. The relative steepness of the yield curves has been the best G10 indicator since 2016. Relative curvature is the new king of FX.

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Tänään julkaistaan euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit | EKP ja Riksbank kokoustavat torstaina | Suomesta saadaan työmarkkinalukuja tiistaina