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Monday, December 17

17th Dec - Still weak


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EUROPE
Euro Summit: Baby steps on eurozone reform ING
Eurozone government leaders signed off finance ministers’ proposals for future eurozone reforms. There is some progress, a eurozone budget is even still alive, but the window of opportunity is clearly closing

Macron's Popularity Slides Despite Yellow Vest Concessions BB

Disarray in Europe and U.S. Leaves a Hole Where ‘the West’ Was BB
Trump, Brexit, ‘Gilets Jaunes,’ departing Merkel root causes * Leadership vacuum ‘messy’ for Middle East, lethal for Ukraine


UNITED STATES
Federal Reserve December meeting previewPictet
Fed is widely expected to increase the Fed funds target range by another 25 basis points on 19 December, marking the fourth rate increase of 2018.

Bond Traders Ponder Next Inversion as Fed Dots Take Center StageBB
Rate hike seen as lock, so projected 2019 path may sway market * Latest forecasts could deepen yield-curve inversion: BMO

Fed to Slow 2019 Rate Hikes Amid Downside Risks, Poll Shows BB
Economist expect officials will signal two hikes next year * Most see Fed dropping call for ‘gradual increases’ by March

Fed preview: A hike, but what next?ING
Market tensions and tentative signs of softening growth won’t stop the Fed hiking interest rates this week, but there is scepticism of the Fed’s prognosis of three further hikes for 2019. Markets will be looking for signs of cracks in the Fed’s position


OTHER
Trade war: Fear versus facts ABN AMRO
The US has become much more hawkish on trade this year * China (tech) becoming a key focus of US trade and investment actions * While only a small part of global trade is affected so far, trade tensions have hit global business confidence and contributed to a tightening of financial conditions. Impact on global economy is relatively moderate so far as e.g. CNY depreciation and China stimulus are cushioning factors. While there are certainly downside risks there could also be winners, and it could accelerate China’s reforms. US-China strategic competition probably inevitable: key is how to manage it

The Bulls Versus Bears Guide to the World Economy in 2019 BB
Trade war, Italy, central banks and politics top worry lists * Optimists argue next downturn will be shallow and manageable

China’s Made in 2025 Plan Is a Paper Tiger BB
The country’s a long way from achieving its targets; staying open to foreign competition is a better way to climb the technology ladder.

China Confronts Its Eternal Dilemma BB
With pressure building for major stimulus, leaders must decide whether boosting growth or controlling debt is more important.


REGULARS
EU Open RundownRANsquawk

Brussels Edition Daily BB

Brussels BriefingFT

Eco Day EuropeBB
Italy's Trimming Pledge, Americans Sour, French Quiet * EU, Italian government move closer to agreement on spending * Poll shows growing pessimism in U.S. on economic outlook

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

WSJ Daily EconomicsWSJ

Danske Daily Danske Bank

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler

Brussels Playbook Politico
The Brexit road ahead — Leaders clinch COP24 deal — End of Europe as we know it

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day BB

US OpenZH
Global Stock Rally Fizzles As Europe Slammed By "Retail Apocalypse"

US Open RundownRANsquawk

AamukatsausNordea
Keskiviikkona tulossa Fedin kokous: korkoa nostetaan ja korkopolkua alennetaan | Keskuspankkien täyteisellä viikolla kokousvuorossa myös Riksbank sekä Englannin ja Japanin keskuspankit| Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit jatkoivat laskuaan