Wolfgang
Streeck on why the EU is a deplorable institution that we must leave.
EU
allies urge US to avoid tit-for-tat trade spat over WTO – FT
France
and Germany say they want a deal but are ready to hit back if none can be
reached
Why
It’s So Hard for Startups to Create Wealth in Europe – BB
Lawmakers
across the Continent haven’t given startups the compensation tools they need to
share profits with employees. That’s changing.
Europe
Needs a Migration Reset – Project
Syndicate
The
new European Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen must regain
control over migration while respecting the dignity of those seeking a better
life. To do this, it needs to reset the EU’s approach in four areas, mobilizing
member states in the European interest.
Editorial:
Austria Must Keep the Populists Out of Government – BB
Sebastian
Kurz should resist the temptation to ally with right-wingers after the snap
election.
Why
Vladimir Putin Suddenly Believes in Global Warming – BB
Russia
was happy that global warming opened up Arctic oil, but the melting of permafrost
poses a huge threat to its hydrocarbon heartlands.
Europe
Has a Magic Charm Against Tariffs: Cachet – BB
“Made
in Germany” and “Made in Italy” are brands capable of compensating for higher
prices.
Nordic
Outlook - October 2019 – Danske
Bank
Denmark:
Growth remains strong, but cannot resist the slowdown in Europe forever * Sweden:
danger signs accumulating, labour market is now showing significant signs of
weakness * Norway: economy approaching peak, oil investments keep growth
strong, but to a lesser extend next year * Finland: The boom years are over,
and growth is normalizing
Euro
Area Macro Monitor –
Danske
Bank
Has
the service sector caught the manufacturing malaise?
GERMANY
German
economists urge Berlin to ditch balanced budget rule – FT
Germany’s
services sector suffers as recession fears mount – FT
Composite
PMI contracts for first time in six years, IHS Markit survey indicates
An
Industrial Crisis Is Brewing in Germany – BB
The
country’s position as the “engine of Europe” is under genuine threat.
El-Erian:
Germany must take care when throwing around stimulus – FT
Two
speed economy means that any spending must be carefully tailored
It’s
Time for German Fiscal Expansion – Project
Syndicate
The
United States has made some bad fiscal choices, in particular by cutting taxes
for the rich at the peak of the business cycle. German policymakers should not
make the symmetric mistake of preserving the country’s budget surplus as the
economy risks sliding into recession.
Austria’s
Elections Show Germany’s Future – BB
The
center right will have to come to terms with the Greens.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Former
central bankers attack ECB’s monetary policy – FT
Sharp
criticism of Draghi’s measures underlines challenge for his successor Lagarde
Interview:
Draghi declares victory in battle over the euro – FT
Departing
ECB president justifies more stimulus and says hawks have lost the political
argument
Draghi
Says ECB Has Room to Do More, But Needs Fiscal Backup – BB
Says
policy will be less effective without government spending * ECB president spoke
in an interview with Financial Times
Europe’s
biggest insurer lambasts ECB over rates – FT
Allianz
chief executive joins German criticism of central bank policy
No
signs yet of failing bank transmission – ABN
AMRO
Fall
in bank lending rates may encourage ECB to cut policy rates further
How
to solve a problem like European banking – FT
Barclays
points to the “structural drag” from negative rates, due to the zero bound of
household deposits. In France and Germany in particular, it says, tiering only
provides “partial relief”.
ECB
officials evoke experience of Japan as confidence slides – ABN
AMRO
The
Crisis of Central-Bank Governance – Project
Syndicate
The
ECB may enjoy stronger protection against political pressure than other central
banks do, but it also faces unique constraints. The more the ECB is forced to
expand its policy remit to meet new economic challenges, the more likely it is
to trigger destabilizing political conflicts within the eurozone.
Troubles
at the ECB Aren’t Draghi’s Fault – BB
Europe’s
central bank has been shouldering the euro zone’s policy burdens alone for too
long.
Stabilisation
policies in a monetary union – ECB
Speech
by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB
Improving
macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area – ECB
Speech
by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
Euro-area
flash inflation: Muted price pressures – Nordea
Downward
trend in inflation has a way to go – ABN
AMRO
UNITED STATES
Weak
manufacturing to drive broader US slowdown – ABN
AMRO
Tariff-Front-Running
Hits US Manufacturing, after Causing Biggest Surge since 2004 – Wolf
Street
ISM
comment: Big disappointment – Nordea
ISM
manufacturing fell further back in September, pointing to a contraction in the
manufacturing sector. Four out of five subcomponents are currently below 50. We
expect the weak trend to continue over the coming months.
US
labour market report: Mixed bag – Nordea
Nonfarm
payrolls increased by 136k in September, underperforming consensus expectations.
However, August numbers were revised up. Overall, a mixed bag. An October cut
looks likely.
OTHER
A
Tour of the Global Economy - in one chart pack – Danske
Bank
The
weakness is driven by soft investments and business confidence globally, which
are both at levels normally seen in G7 recessions, while corporate earnings
growth is also waning or even negative in the euro area and emerging markets. The
stalwart of the global economy so far, the confidence of private consumers, has
started to show weakness despite still-robust real income growth. This is evident
in China and, to some extent, the US, while euro area consumer confidence
remains resilient.
Trade
wars are pushing the global economy to the brink – FT
A
slowdown in manufacturing is now spilling over into domestic services
After
1989: how five eastern Europeans saw their lives change – FT
They
helped bring down communism 30 years ago. What do they make of politics today?
Full
transcript of Mark Zuckerberg’s leaked internal Facebook meetings – Verge
Highlights
from two hours of leaked audio from recent Q&A sessions with Facebook’s CEO
CHINA
China’s
Hong Kong Problem
– Project
Syndicate
The
Chinese government is playing for time in Hong Kong in the hope that the
demonstrators will lose heart and perhaps the will to resist. But if China’s
leaders were as sophisticated as they claim, they would behave very
differently.
The
Next Phase of China’s Reform and Opening Up – Project
Syndicate
Over
the last four decades, China has made major progress on integrating into global
networks. But it has a lot more work to do – and must do it while confronting
an increasingly hostile external environment.
China and Hong Kong: the ultimate test of authoritarian rule – FT
Is
the country a confident superpower or a brittle paranoid regime?
US-China
Trade - 60% probability of an interim deal – Danske
Bank
US
and China meet for high-level trade negotiations next week, sources say 10-11
October. We put a 60% probability of an interim trade deal, which should help
to de-escalate the trade war. However, the road to a big deal is still paved
with many obstacles in our view.
FINNISH
Miten välttää hitaan kasvun ja hitaan inflaation huono tasapaino? – Suomen
Pankki
Näköpiirissä vain hyvin vaimeaa kasvua – Suomen
Pankki
Laskusuhdanne voisi hidastaa euroalueen tuottavuuden kasvua entisestään – Suomen
Pankki
Kauppasota heikentänyt merkittävästi maailmantaloutta – Suomen
Pankki
Vuoden 2015 pakolaiset tilastoitu Ruotsissa: 163 000 tuli – 4 500 käy
töissä – Suomen
Uutiset
Politiikasta tuli uskonto – Jouko Marttila
Ilmastonmuutos
ja väestöennusteet ovat kirvoittaneet kipakkaa keskustelua, jossa tiede ja
tilastot on sivuutettu.
Suomenkieliset pikkulapsiperheet muuttavat pois Helsingin heikko-osaisilta
alueilta – HS
Pikkulapsiperheiden pako heikko-osaisilta alueilta huolestuttaa Helsingin
johtavia poliitikkoja – HS