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Saturday, September 28

28th Sep - Weekly Previews #4171


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Charting the Global Economy: The Week in ReviewBB

Take Five: World markets themes for the week aheadReuters
Trump and Brexit haze * 2019 final quarter begins with Draghi leaving  * Signs of weaking US economy * China’s birthday * Trade wars

Key events in developed markets next weekING
UK: Expect PMIs to follow the global downtrend in the coming week while investors will be eyeing eurozone data to assess strength in the service sector * US: September employment report - economy experiencing some bumps - but not dropping off a cliff * Eurozone: All eyes on service sector strength

EcoWeekBNP PARIBAS
Germany is probably in a technical recession and recent data do not point to any improvement in the near term, quite to the contrary. Given the country’s considerable budget surplus, German business leaders are calling for fiscal stimulus. This echoes Mario Draghi’s plea in favour of budgetary expansion in countries with fiscal space. Simulations show that spillover effects to other eurozone countries would be small. Moreover, the implementation of a fiscal package requires long preparation and may be hampered by labour shortages.

Global Week AheadScotiabank
US: Support for impeachment passed the minimum threshold of a simple majority. A key risk will require monitoring for any possible cracks in the Republicans’ support for Trump given the requirement of a two-thirds super-majority to convict. Trade policy risks may incrementally shift toward US-European relations. The Fed’s efforts to tamp down funding market pressures will continue. Also, September payrolls and ISM manufacturing * Euro area: flash inflation

Week AheadNordea
Trump may be impeached, but he is here to stay * Bet on Schwung and be wrong *ECB: Buy, buy, buy. People: Save, save, save.

Weekly FocusDanske Bank
US: a small rebound in ISM manufacturing and a further moderation in employment growth to around 100,000. Attention will also remain on the prospect of possible impeachment of US President Donald Trump. * China: PMI data for September to give more insight into the extent of the economy's weakness. We expect the numbers to still show weakness but not point to a hard landing. * Euro area: flash euro area inflation to fall to 0.9% in September from 1.0% in August.

Macro WeeklyABN AMRO
Democrats start impeachment against Trump * Suspension of UK parliament deemed unlawful * US economy OK, rest of the world struggling

China WeeklyDanske Bank
High-level trade talks on track for week starting 7 October * Elevated US-China tensions create difficult conditions to reach a real deal * Chinese stocks and the CNY gave back gains in sign of caution ahead of the talks * PRC's 70-year anniversary is celebrated on 1 October. It will be a demonstration of economic achievements as well as military capabilities.

Weekly Market CommentMarc Chandler
Forces of Movement at the Start of Q4 19