Still
missing few entries, but posting anyways and updating later. I translated Bruce
Krasting’s piece to Finnish and posted it in the Finnish blogosphere
– it attracted several high-quality comments. It will be a heavy week event-wise, but I'm not expecting shocks similar to the ECB's bomb last week. Luckily today seems like a day without significant events and everyone has time to catch their breath and think what all this means. I'm scared that the more people think about these things, the more they will see the holes I have been writing about...
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
8.9. Weekender: Weekly Support (last week’s review, next one
previewed)
7.9. Guest: On Mario's Shock and Awe (excellent)
Roundups
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt crisis:
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
MORNING BRIEFINGS
China released the initial tranche of its August data at the weekend and the
rather non-descript results led to a slightly weaker tone for the AUD at the start of trading this week.
Imports fell a hefty 2.6% y/y raising concerns about Oz ore exports.
Morning
Briefing (Asia): – BNY Mellon
Market Preview: EU investor confidence on tap – Saxo
Bank
European markets are expected to open lower
Monday on concerns about the Greek coalition government's failure to decide on
a final package of spending cuts and ahead of Eurozone investor confidence due
later today.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
No major market movers today. Focus is likely
to move from ECB action and increased likelihood of Fed QE3 to upcoming events
(risk factors) and in particular the FOMC meeting on Thursday, the German
constitutional court ruling on ESM and elections
in the Netherlands (both on Wednesday). Today’s data releases include French industrial
production and Italian final Q2 GDP figures, which are expected to be
weak and will probably not contribute to
keep last week’s rally going. Greek Prime Minister Samaras meets the Troika
today.
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Port in a storm – BNY
Mellon
Despite growing doubts over the AUD, we understand those who believe it
has more to give. But the CAD is the better option
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
(pdf)
Euroalueella
poliittiset päätökset valokeilassa * Työpaikkojen hidas kasvu kääntänee Fedin
lisäelvytyksen kannalle * EURUSD lähes neljän kuukauden huippuihin
elvytysodotusten myötä
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Odotukset
keskuspankkien elvytystoimista vahvistuneet heikkojen makrotilastojen myötä.
Tällä viikolla tärkeitä päätöksiä: keskiviikkona Saksan
perustuslakituomioistuin EVM:stä ja torstaina FED. Markkinan
suunta: Markkinoilla poimitaan rusinat pullasta, USA:n heikko
työmarkkinaraportti nosti osakkeita elvytystoiveiden kasvaessa. Viikonlopun
aikana julkaistut tilastot Kiinasta kertovat hidastumisen jatkuneen edelleen
hieman odotuksia nopeampana. Viikon mielenkiintoisimmat tapahtumat: 12.9.
Saksan perustuslakituomioistuin ja 13.9. FED.
EUROPE
The Tragedy of the European Union and How to
Resolve It – The
New York Review of Books
George
Soros with a very long piece: In short,
the current situation is like a nightmare that can be escaped only by waking up
Germany and making it aware of the misconceptions that are currently guiding
its policies. We can hope Germany, when put to the choice, will choose to exercise benevolent leadership
rather than to suffer the losses connected with leaving the euro.
Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Grant
Williams / ZH
The latest
edition of the newsletter comments the ECB: Draghi
has temporarily released the pressure on Europe’s peripherals, but he has had to go
beyond to the very edge of his mandate. What happens next is open to debate but
the Eurocrats are bound to find a way to ensure we have no more than a few days
of relative calm ahead of us.
Now it’s back to Europe’s politicians – Macrobusiness
As I have continued to talk about over this
year, without a massive change in direction, the economic outcomes of Europe have already been decided. Attempts
at supra-Eurozone fiscal consolidation all but guarantee a fall in economic
output for the EZ, and the recession has really only just begun. In that regard
it is the politics that will become increasingly important over the next 12
months as the economic fallout opens new fractures in the political systems of
participating nations.
Key Eurozone CDS spreads hit 2012 lows – Sober
Look
USA
Weekly Chartopia – ZH
Good charts
from a recent Goldman Sachs note
Debt Be Not Proud – John Mauldin /
The Big Picture
How Down Can Be Up If You Create the Rules * The
Fed to the Rescue? * The Correlation Between Government Size and Growth * Debt
Be Not Proud * Debt Overhangs: Past and Present * Should the Fed Give Us QE3?
The Consensus Moves Towards a QE3 Announcement
This Week – PragCap
FX Comment: back to limited – Nordea
What ECB’s Draghi did to markets last week was
nothing short of spectacular ...Fed will definitely not go “unlimited”, but
some sort of QE3, in a combination with extended forward guidance, seems very
likely now.
Five Years Since The Great Financial Crisis:
"No Growth, No Deleveraging" – ZH
Charts and
couple of paragraphs from Deutsche Bank
Economists have underestimated the severity of
structural shift in US employment dynamics – Sober
Look
IN FINNISH
En ole huolestunut
inflaatiosta, en EKP:n tappioista, en velkakirjojen ostosta – olen huolestunut
siitä mitä EKP:n ohjelma tarkoittaa itsenäisyydelle – tyhmyri