Fed day. My gut feeling is that after the CB action from US is seen and analyzed, markets will turn their focus to the holes in the European plan. American QE is now almost 100% priced in, so I expect slight kneejerk positive reaction followed by "sell the news" in both SPX and EURUSD.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt crisis:
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Asia today – Saxo Bank
Euro-area
crisis? Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting is the market’s bellwether
European markets are expected to open higher Thursday on hopes of
further quantitative easing measures at the US FOMC meeting later today.
Markets are also keeping an eye on US jobless claims data and the ECB's
monthly report today.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Pro-euro parties win the Dutch election, removing yet another obstacle in the euro crisis.
Equities and EUR/USD slightly higher following the German ruling on ESM yesterday.
All eyes on Fed today as expectations for QE3 are high. SNB also in focus.
Morning
Briefing (EU/US): Between
Scylla and Charybdis – BNY Mellon
Greece's Democratic Left is losing support because of the company it keeps
Greece's Democratic Left is losing support because of the company it keeps
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
(pdf)
Euroalue kohti
tiiviimpää liittoa * Hollannilta euromyönteinen vaalitulos * Saksan
Bund-futuuri kahden kuukauden pohjiin ESM-päätöksen myötä
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Markkinoiden huomio
keskittyy tänään USA:n keskuspankin FED:in,
jolta odotetaan uutta määrällistä elvytystä (QE3). Uusi määrällinen elvytys
tukisi osakkeita ja hyödykkeitä sekä painaisi dollaria. Markkinan suunta: Saksan
perustuslakituomioistuimelta odotettu päätös hyväksyä Saksan osallistuminen
EVM:ään, markkinoilla positiivinen reaktio päätökseen. Tänään erittäin tärkeä
USA:n keskuspankin avomarkkinakomitean ilmoitus mahdollisista uusista
elvytystoimista. Markkinoiden enemmistö odottaa uutta QE3:sta. Apple julkaisi
odotetun kaltaisen iPhone 5:n, toimitukset alkavat jo syyskuussa. Osakefutuurit
flättinä eli odottavalla kannalla ennen FED kokousta.
EUROPE
German Constitutional Court tightens the
noose yet further –
The
Telegraph
"An acquisition of government bonds on the
secondary market by the European Central Bank aiming at financing the Members’
budgets independently of the capital markets is prohibited as well, as it would
circumvent the prohibition of monetary financing."
The vote in the Netherlands may now form part of a pattern, in which European voters scare the
daylights out of mainstream politicians by flirting with the extremes – only to
shy away on election day itself.
Goldman On Spain's Tension-Inducing
Arrogance – ZH
The opposition seen in Germany in response to Mr Draghi’s preparedness to buy sovereign debt implies
that current posturing in Spain will not wear well
with the politics of signing a Memorandum of Understanding in Germany. The more the Spanish administration indulges domestic political
interests and is perceived to be taking undue advantage of external support,
the more explicit conditionality is likely to be demanded.
Mr. Draghi, Mr. Arnault, and Europe’s Gordian Knot – EconoMonitor
This Gordian knot is, in turn, the consequence
of two forces at the heart of the EU’s functioning—or rather, its epic
dysfunctions: a creditor protection dogma and a fiscal black hole.
Monti Warns Italian Unions; Over 200,000 Jobs
at Risk; Italy's Insane Labor Rules; Employment, Italian Style – Mish’s
USA
Fed Seen Starting QE3 While Extending Rate
Pledge to 2015 – BB
The Wait Should be Finally Over – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
FOMC Projections Preview – Calculated
Risk
The Fiscal Cliff: What Now and What to Expect – A
Dash of Insight
IN FINNISH
Saksan oikeuspäätös
ja EVM – pelastuiko euro vai saiko se kuolemantuomion? – tyhmyri
Pankkiunionin
ensimmäinen askel sai merkkinsä – Karjalainen
Pankkiunioni kaipaa
vielä täsmennyksiä – SS
Eurokriisin hoidossa askelletaan eteenpäin – HS