So we got the QE, markets are happy: stocks up but near channel highs, EURUSD up but sitting below major 1.30 resistance, inflation expectations up. Next week back to Europe, plenty of issues still ahead. Given how certain markets were that QE is coming, perhaps the move to aggressively hit where it matters - mortgage bonds - was what caused the positive reaction. So somewhat more aggressive than what had been expected.
Nothing
comes to my desk that is perfectly solvable. Otherwise, someone else would have
solved it. So you wind up dealing with probabilities. Any given decision you
make you’ll wind up with a 30 to 40 percent chance that it isn’t going to work.
You have to own that and feel comfortable with the way you made the decision.
You can’t be paralyzed by the fact that it might not work out. On top of all of
this, after you have made your decision, you need to feign total certainty
about it. People being led do not want to think probabilistically. – Barack Obama
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap –
Global Macro Trading
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
Roundup – A
View From My Screens
US Summary:
Up – ZH
Tomorrow’s
Tape – MarketBeat / WSJ
Greece's Democratic Left is
losing support because of the company it keeps
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EUROPE
BofAML: The ECB OMT: End game or (some) more
trouble? – ZH
The ECB has offered a seatbelt to a driver with
a bad driving record, which will only work if the driver agrees to a strict
monitoring of his driving. So, will the driver accept the offer in the first
place? Will he change his behaviour afterwards? And if not in the latter case,
is the threat of removing the seatbelt credible?
The OMT, and the plumbing – alphaville
/ FT
Charts on a certain broken transmission
mechanism are popping up everywhere.
The euro’s demise may be the final chapter of
the ERM debacle – The
Telegraph
The drama of 1992 showed why Germany cannot lead Europe out of a monetary crisis
Now politicians have no more excuses – La
Repubblica / presseurop
The verdict of the German Constitutional Court has ended the first part of the 'war of the unification’ of Europe. Today, though, a new phase is
opening up: the battle to convince national politicians to accept the surrender
of sovereignty necessary for the EU of tomorrow.
The Greek Debt
Exchange: An Autopsy is a breezy tale of Greece’s success in
restructuring the largest amount of sovereign debt in modern history, despite
the broader failure of its bailout.
USA
FOMC Statement – Calculated
Risk
QE3 $40 Billion per Month, Extend Guidance to
mid-2015
Redacted Version of the September 2012 FOMC
Statement – The
Aleph Blog
QE3 is on! – Wonkblog
/ WP
QE3 – A Brief Analysis – PragCap
The Fed Announces Additional Easing – Economist’s
View
FOMC Projections and Bernanke Press Conference – Calculated
Risk
Longer-term inflation expectations spike in
reaction to the Fed
– Sober
Look
QE3: Fed to buy bonds until the economy
recovers – Nordea
OTHER
Precious Metals Update - Part I – The
Short Side of The Long
Fiddling at the Fire – Nouriel
Roubini / Project Syndicate
Ineffective governments with weak leadership
are at the root of the problem. In democracies, repeated elections lead to
short-term policy choices. In autocracies like China and Russia, leaders resist the
radical reforms that would reduce the power of entrenched lobbies and
interests, thereby fueling social unrest as resentment against corruption and
rent-seeking boils over into protest.
EMEA Weekly, Week 38 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
IN FINNISH
Luottotappioiden
huumaa – Henri
Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro
Huoli unionin tilasta – Mitro
Repo / IL