Good evening everyone! First the views, followed by my selection of the ending week's Off-Topic links and select articles in Finnish.
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| EURUSD: trend down and at the trendline now. The market will either start spending time in a risk on-risk off-trading range, just like in Summer 2011 and early Spring 2012 - or alternatively sell off really hard, like in 2011 Oct-Nov. Selling is preferred around current levels, but the short-term trend is still up, so technically going against the market now is not really safe. |
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| EURUSD on hourly chart still in the rising channel - shorting around 1.26, closing the shorts around 1.25 or catching a possible range break all the way to channel bottom and horizontal support around 1.24 for the greedy ones. Sell, close half at 1.25 and target the 1.24 on the rest? |
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| Spanish 10-year government bond yield has been moving up lately, after the famous Draghi's speech and the apparent stand-off before the event. The dreaded 7% is again approaching, and this after we've been promised bailout packages, bank recaps, banking union and ECB bond support? The market should peak below 7% in similar fashion to early summer's trading - every time the yield rises, someone mumbles something that is supposedly showing support and resolve. I expect a similar pattern now: perhaps 7 to 6.5% again? At some point there WILL be a solution, and either the yields break down to low crisis figures of 5.5-6% - or go clearly higher as Spain defaults. |
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| Spanish 2-year goverment bond yield has remained at low levels, as the current understanding is that the ECB's plan is to intervene in the short end of the market. That makes sense fiscally, as Spain's debt rollovers are mostly done in the shorter maturities. My gut feeling is that the 2-year yield will join the rally this week. Perhaps a spread trade might make some sense (i.e. selling 2-year bonds and buying 10-year bonds). |
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| S&P500 stock index remains in the bull channel. Currently the channel bottom is around 1380-evels, and that is where the next proper horizontal support is as well. The range trading (with everyone trying to buy dips, while hoping but not really expecting new highs) could continue for some time more, and that would also be one way to meet the rising trend line. |
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| The hourly chart of the SPX is not offering much else, except that some sort of an horizontal congestion area is in the works. Friday's reaction to roboreading and feedback trading on the Bernanke's speech was sad to watch for an old-timer like me. |
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
31.8. US Close: Bernanke's Apology (comments on Fed)
31.8. Best of August most read pieces + all my ’views’
OFF-TOPICS
TOO RICH?
The Best Night $500,000 Can Buy – GQ
On the
nightlife in the elite clubs of Las Vegas.
Goldman Executive Is Said to Buy $27 Million
Luxury Apartment – DealBook
/ NYT
Indulging in a Yacht, but Still Minding the
Expenses – NYT
PSYCHOLOGY
Repellent; The Magical Law of Attraction – Psy-Fi
Blog
Positivity isn’t a neutral thing; it leads to
negative outcomes for firms, employees and shareholders. It also leads to
intense short-termism.
The Neuroscience of 20-Somethings – SciAm
Even if the brain’s developmental changes are
more dramatic in the teens than in the twenties, the best available evidence
suggests that a twenty-something’s brain boasts a little more adaptability than
an older brain. Our twenties might represent a final opportunity to begin
mastering a particular skill with a kind of facility we cannot enjoy in later
decades. Should people in their twenties buckle down and choose something,
anything, to practice while their brains are still nimble?
Turn Off the Phone (and the Tension) – NYT
One side effect of living an always-on digital
life is the tension, along with the thrill, that can arise from being able to
peep into people’s worlds at any moment and comparing their lives with yours.
This tension may be inevitable at times, but it’s not inescapable. It’s
possible to move beyond the angst that social media can provoke — and to be glad
that we’ve done so.
Voice of the New Global Elite – The
National Interest
In sum, then, I came away from twenty-two weeks
of monitoring the Economist convinced that it is, indeed, the very best
magazine of its kind—a status made easier by the fact that it is arguably the
only magazine of its kind.
PEOPLE
Heiress, actress, singer, model - Lisette Lee
wanted everyone to think she had it all, but beneath the bling were secrets,
lies and private jets filled with weed
Shattered Genius – Playboy
The author attempts to interview Grigori
Perelman, a reclusive mathematical genius.
Teen Titan – The
New Yorker
The man who made Justin Bieber.
SCIENCE / TECH / WEB
The Universe in a Nutshell: Michio Kaku on the
Physics of Everything
– brain
pickings
(video documentary) The history of physics is the history of modern
civilization.
Google's Social Network Goes Pro – technology
review
Google+ is now available for companies to use
for internal communications.
How Long Do You Want to Live? – NYT
How many years might be added to a life? A few longevity enthusiasts suggest a possible increase of decades. Most others believe in more modest gains. And when will they come? Are we a decade away? Twenty years? Fifty years?
How many years might be added to a life? A few longevity enthusiasts suggest a possible increase of decades. Most others believe in more modest gains. And when will they come? Are we a decade away? Twenty years? Fifty years?
Technical knowledge – Understanding
Society
There is a kind of knowledge in an advanced
mechanical society that doesn't get much attention from philosophers of science
and sociologists of science, but it is critical for keeping the whole thing
running. I'm thinking here of the knowledge possessed by skilled technicians
and fixers
A book has been written in DNA, and now 70 billion copies exist in
a small vial of liquid in Cambridge, Massachusetts. As costs fall, storing information in DNA may one day become common
Taking pictures on Mars: Red eyes – Babbage
/ The Economist
Thorium reactors could hold the key to safer
cheaper nuclear power
– qfinance
Drake equation: How many alien civilizations
exist? – BBC
Richard Feynman on the Role of Scientific
Culture in Modern Society – brainpickings
CRIME
The Shadow Scholar – The Chronicle of
Higher Education
The man who
writes your students' papers tells his story
Before Gunfire, Hints of ‘Bad News’ – NYT
The
Batman-shooter.
When the public is this divided about an issue,
it's best left to voluntary social pressure instead of legal enforcement.
The Throwaways – The
New Yorker
Police enlist young offenders as confidential
informants. But the work is high-risk, largely unregulated, and sometimes
fatal.
OTHER
Did Reuters kill Hitler? – Thomson
Reuters
During the last days of the war in Europe – in April 1945 – the story goes
that Adolf Hitler had a Reuters teleprinter in his bunker below the Reich
Chancellery in Berlin. He also had a radio-set which
could receive the BBC. Hitler was said to have learnt
while in the bunker that the Russians had entered the city and that Gestopo
Chief, Heinrich Himmler, had offered to
surrender to the Western Allies.
Think of my programmes as your research
department – Letters
of Note
Early-1996, on learning that a forthcoming,
weekly drum & bass programme was to eat into his own show's airtime,
shortening it by an hour, pioneering DJ John Peel made his disappointment known
by writing the following letter to Matthew Bannister, then-controller of BBC Radio 1.
Knowing When To Fold ‘Em: The Science of Poker – SciAm
A New Kind of Social Science for the 21stg
Century – Edge
These three things—a biological hurricane,
computational social science, and the rediscovery of experimentation—are going
to change the social sciences in the 21st century. With that change will come,
in my judgment, a variety of discoveries and opportunities that offer
tremendous prospect for improving the human condition.
Insurance for Astronauts – riskheads
The Apollo Astronauts' Fascinating Insurance
Covers – ukinsurancenet
IN FINNISH
EU valmistautuu
ottamaan pankit valvontaansa jo ensi vuonna – HS
Finanssivalvonta
haluaa potkia amatöörit eläkeyhtiöiden hallituksista – SK
Pääkirjoitus:
Velkaraha pitää hallituksen koossa – IS
Podcast-vinkki:
"Kuinka ratkaisisin eurokriisin kahdessa viikossa" - euroetana
Vastuuttomuutta
suomalaisten työntekijöiden työpaikkojen kanssa – SAK:n Lyly tekee
europolitiikkaa kunnallisvaalien alla – tyhmyri
Katainen samoilla
linjoilla Lipposen kanssa – IL
Jyrki Kataisen
mielestä Suomen kannattaa olla siellä, missä päätökset tehdään.
Suomen
asuntomarkkinoilla rauhallista heinäkuussa – euroetana
Keskuspankit ovat
aina poliittisia eläimiä muista väitteistä huolimatta – myös Bloomberg
kirjoittaa samaa – tyhmyri
EU-tovereille
helpotuksia – Suomelle 2 miljardin lasku – TalSa
Risto E. J.
Penttilä: Kreikkaa ei voida enää puolustaa - Suomen hallituksen muutettava
eurolinjaustaan – SK
Kriisimailla menee
entistä huonommin ja sitä iloitaan edistymisenä – Spiegelin juttu – tyhmyri
Professori:
Downshiftaaja onkin menestyjä – YLE
Suomalaisilla on kapea
kuva hyvästä elämästä. Eletään muiden odotusten mukaan ja ahdistutaan.
Tämä on vain alkua:
Lopulta taivaalta sataa euroja – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
EKP on luvannut tehdä
"kaiken tarvittavan" euron pelastamiseksi. Ensi viikolla selviää,
tarkoittaako lupaus muuta kuin yhä railakkaampia raharuiskeita kriisivaltioiden
ja -pankkien tukemiseen. Tätä menoa "kaikki tarvittava" tarkoittaa,
että pelastustoimien päätteeksi taivaalta sataa euroja
Perussuomalaiset
rynnii kuntavaalikyselyssä – YLE
Perussuomalaiset
suurin puolue miesten osalta – Reijo
Tossavainen / US Puheenvuoro
Mikä on Suomen visio?
– Hannu
Visti
Yksi maa panostaa
pääkonttoreihin. Toinen valmistukseen. Kolmas tuotekehitykseen. Neljäs kaikkeen
bisnekseen matalalla verotukselle. Jne. Mutta entä Suomi?
Eurokriisi
fifty-sixty (audio, 45min) – YLE
Brysselin koneessa
pohditaan mistä euron kriisi johtuu ja miten tässä voi käydä . Haastateltavana
on erikoistutkija Heikki Taimio Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksesta. Vaikka aikaa
onkin ostettu erilaisiin euron tukitoimin niin kriisiä tulee kriisin perään. Taimion
mukaan euro tulee hajoamaan jollain lailla. Ainoa kestävä ratkaisu euron
toimivuuden jatkumiseen olisi täysimittainen liitovaltio, mutta siihen taas ei
löydy monessakaan maassa riittävästi poliittista tahtoa.