US holiday, so probably a quiet day.
During the weekend I posted on full turboboost, please see them as there were
several gems in there. This week it will be the ECB rumors and in the US the unemployment numbers on Friday. Thus I would not be surprised to see quiet range-trading and minor sell-offs in risk markets. Have a good week!
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
31.8. US Close: Bernanke's Apology (comments on Fed)
31.8. Best of August most read pieces + all my ’views’
Roundups
News
roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
MORNING BRIEFINGS
The first of the global manufacturing PMI reports confirmed what we already
suspected – a slowing global marketplace. China's PMI fell below 50 for the first time
since November 2011 yet risk/equities found comfort from Wall Street's Friday
rally.
Morning
Briefing (Asia): – BNY Mellon
European stocks are expected to open flat
Monday following a contraction in China's manufacturing
activity for August. Investors also await Eurozone manufacturing PMI data and Draghi's speech due later
today.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Bernanke left the door open for QE3, but September
easing is not a done deal. Asian equity markets are generally higher overnight
– despite a weak Chinese PMI. Focus today is on European PMIs and comments ahead of Thursday’s ECB
meeting. US markets are closed for Labor Day.
Tensions
between Iran and Israel continue to rise.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
(pdf)
Kiinan teollisuuden
piristymistä saadaan yhä odottaa * Koronlaskun lisäksi EKP:ltä odotettavissa
vain vähän lisätietoja osto-ohjelmasta *EURUSD heikkeni Bernanken puheen myötä
hieman kahden kuukauden huipustaan
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
FED:n Bernanken perjantaina pitämä puhe oli
markkinoille melko odotettu ja sisälsi melko vahvoja signaaleja elvytyksen
jatkumisesta. Osake- ja hyödykemarkkinat nousivat perjantaina. Markkinan
suunta: Osake- ja hyödykemarkkinat nousivat, kun FED:n Bernanken perjantainen puhe tyydytti
markkinoiden odotukset elvytyksestä. Reaalitalouden puolella Kiinan
ostopäällikköindeksit osoittavat talouden hidastumisen jatkuneen yhä
voimakkaampana. Lyhyen ja pitkän aikavälin sijoittamisen yhdistäminen: Nyt
hyviä ostoja: Outotec, Nokian Renkaat, Tikkurila, Metso, Metsä Board. Nyt hyvä
aika myydä: Neste Oil, Finnair, Ahlstrom, Sampo, Fiskars.
* * *
Spain’s July peripheral bank deposits – ibexsalad
of the 178 billion decrease in non-MFI deposits in Spanish banks,
two-thirds is accounted for by a decrease in term deposits and 22 percent by a
decline in repurchase agreements that fall under 'deposits'. Demand deposits
have remained virtually flat. (so not that bad?)
Sentiment indicators point to a deepening
recession in the Eurozone, including "core" economies – Sober
Look
JPMorgan's commodities analysts draw some
frightening parallels between the current Israel - Iran tensions and the
events leading up to World War I… Based on the fact that such a
conflict risks becoming far broader and deadlier than the early assessments,
JMorgan's view is that oil prices would spike initially but would then decline
below current levels as global demand comes to a halt.
Employment Data Ahead – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
If we believe Lockhart, Bernanke's speech was
less of a signal than the general consensus would believe. But if we believe Bullard, the FOMC is moving
in the direction of additional easing in any event. Greater than 50% odds, but still a close
call? Sounds about right. The employment report could ramp the odds up
to 80%, or push us back to the break even point.
FX Comment: something’s cooking? – Nordea
short piece
discusses the CB balance sheet differences as a driver for EURUSD, China’s prospects as a driver for AUDUSD.
Quick and worth it.
China’s PMI fell again
China - PMIs suggest growth remains
subdued in Q3 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Bleeding
industrial sector puts pressure on additional stimuli – Nordea
Market
Response 'Bad Is Good' So Far – ZH
China New
Export Orders Drop Most Since March 2009, Operating Conditions Down 10th
Consecutive Month; China's Export Machine Grind to a Halt – Mish’s
Darker
Chinese clouds – alphaville
/ FT
China: no joy in PMI numbers – beyondbrics
/ FT