(29. heinäkuuta 2012)
K: Kumpi tulee ennemmin: Kreikan seuraava velkajärjestely
vain Espanjan tukipyyntö? Portugalikin tosin taitaa syksyllä tarvita uutta
pakettia, joten ehtiikö se ensin…
MoreLiver: Espanjan
tukipyyntö. Kreikalle työnnetään lisää rahaa toistaiseksi, ettei niitä taas
tarvitse järjestellä. Espanjahan on jo kulisseissa pyytänyt 300 miljardia sen
satasen päälle, mutta yllätys yllätys, Saksa ei ollut kauhean innoissaan.
Wolfson Economics
Prize
Winner
Capital
Economics - Leaving the euro: A
practical guide
Full entry
Summary
Runners-up
Catherine
Dobbs - The NEWNEY approach to
unscrambling the Euro
Jens
Nordvig and Dr Nick Firoozye - Rethinking
the European monetary union
Neil Record
- Minimising the financial cost, and
maximising the economic opportunities, of Euro Exit
Jonathan
Tepper - A Primer on the Euro Breakup:
Depart, Default, and Devalue as the Optimal Solution
Fix it or Fixit – Could Finland Be Next? – July 6 / 2012 – Nouriel Roubini
Nomura: Currency risk in a Eurozone break-up-
Legal Aspects (18-Nov 2011) – scribd
15 pages,
redenomination risk and the differences between local and foreign law
applicability
Analysis: Euro exit talk risks self-fulfilling
prophecy (23-Jul-2012) – Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/23/us-eurozone-exit-idUSBRE86M04J20120723
Game theory and euro breakup risk premium (10-Jul 2012) – BoA / ML
What is the
Nash equilibrium of this game? The bottom line is that the only stable
equilibrium of this game is that Italy exits the euro and, more importantly, it
exits already in period 1…Our analysis above suggests that the eurozone is now
facing two paths – break up or accept a much weaker EUR. To the extent that the
first path is likely to be also associated with a weaker EUR (at least in the
transition), it seems that further depreciation of the EUR is inevitable.
The Implications Of Leaving The Euro (Dec 2011) – BCG via Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bcg-presents-one-chart-explain-implications-leaving-euro
Euro break-up – the consequences (6-Sep 2011) – UBS (pdf)
Cost to a
periphery country leaving 40-50% of GDP in first year.
Nomura Presents The Fair-Value Of European
Currencies In A Euro Breakup Scenario (5-Dec 2011) – Zero Hedge
Our
estimates suggest significant depreciation risk for a number of eurozone
countries in a redenomination scenario (FINLAND 6.7% DEVALUATION)
How Finland Could Exit The Euro In The Long Term (22-Jul-2012) - Goldman Sachs
The likely candidates are countries that are
going to be net contributors to any risk sharing arrangements – the fiscally
stronger countries, especially those that do not perceive much benefit from the
Euro, such as Finland.
An Exit Strategy From the Euro (Jan 2012) – Robert Barro / WSJ
The euro
can be phased out the same way Europe's individual currencies were. The bonds of
troubled member states would benefit as a result.
State of the union: Can the euro zone survive
its debt crisis? (Mar 2011) – Economist Intelligence Unit
46 pages
The Tipping Point? Time to call the ECB (Nov
2011) – Deutsche
Bank
51-slide
presentation
The Future of the Eurozone and U.S. Interests (16-Sep 2011) – crs.gov
32 pages.
Congressional Research Service’s report, prepared for members and committees of
congress. Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress
A Primer on the Euro Breakup (Feb 20129 – Variant Perception
53-page
paper
EMU Break-up: Pay now, pay later (1-Dec 2011) – ING
40 pages,
with scenario analysis of both only Greece exiting or a larger break-up
Endgame (25-Nov 2011) – Nomura
Absent a
policy response, a euro break-up looks probable not possible
What Fiscal Union Means – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
(linkittää Krugmanin kahteen liittovaltio-juttuun)