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Thursday, December 13

13th Dec - EU Open: Morning After



For more on the Fed's change, see my previous post. UK seems to be moving to the same direction, given the yesterday's comments by the next governor for the Bank of England. I think there is more to the Fed than currently meets the eye - but it will take time before markets understand this. Sell for couple of weeks.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Reference
Debt crisis live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers To Watch: EURCHF, US Jobless Claims & Retail SalesSaxo Bank
The possibility of tinkering with Switzerland's monetary policy could drive EURCHF higher, while updates on jobless claims and retail sales in the US may revise the year-end macro outlook.

Market Preview: US Retail Sales and EU Council meeting eyedSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open flat Thursday. In a recent development,the EU has reached an agreement to give the ECB power to supervise the region's major banks. The US Fed yesterday announced additional easing measures to spur the economy.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
The Fed surprises and introduces ‘Evans rule’ and asset purchases of USD45bn. US stocks rallied but gave up the gains as fears over fiscal cliff returned. Eurozone agrees on common bank regulator as compromise is reached. Berlusconi may pull candidacy for president if Mario Monti runs. Market movers today: US retail sales and PPI, SNB meeting, ECOFIN meeting

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Fedin kevennystoimet jatkuvat * Pankkiunioni ottanut askeleen eteenpäin? * EURUSD nousuun Fedin myötä

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
FED käynnisti odotetusti yhä voimakkaamman elvytyksen eli QE∞+. Lisäksi keskuspankki sitoi nollakorkopolitiikkansa työllisyyteen ja inflaatioon. Markkinoiden reaktiot FED:n lisäelvytykseen maltilliset, kun USA:n budjettikiista painaa tunnelmia. Osakefutuurit aivan marginaalisesti plussalla, indikoiden fllättiä avausta pörssissä.

MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat

EUROPE
Sweden’s Euro Hostility Hits A RecordTestosterone Pit

EU to Dilute Timeline for Euro-Area Overhaul, Draft ShowsBB

EU Makes ECB Oversight Deal That May Speed Bank Aid PathBB
Europe deepens union with ECB as chief bank watchdogReuters
Europe clinched a deal on Thursday to give the European Central Bank new powers to supervise euro zone banks from 2014, embarking on the first step in a new phase of closer integration to help underpin the euro.
  
UNITED STATES

Cliff Notes, Fiscal StyleA Dash of Insight


  FED
The mandate is willing but the tools are weakFree exchange / The Economist
In other words, the Fed should use lots of QE now, when it works, so that it doesn't have to use more later, when it may not. This is not exactly the world's most ringing endorsement of unconventional monetary policy. But it's an honest one.

FOMC Afterthoughts: Priced in, to be continued?Saxo Bank
The Fed announced new monthly bond purchases to replace the Twist, but surprised many by changing to explicit targeting of unemployment below 6.5%. My feeling is that the markets were not really happy with the outcome.

Bernanke Wields New Tools to Reduce Unemployment RateBB

Trendline on the unemployment rate projects the Fed ending zero rate policy by late 2014Sober Look

OTHER
Are Equities A Good Inflation Hedge?ZH
views from UBS

A Quick Update On QE4Short Side of the Long
market views

IN FINNISH
Vallattomasti valtiopäivillä ja euron armoton logiikkatyhmyri

Ruotsin linja tiukkenee - Pääministeri: Euroalueella on menty liian pitkälleUS


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