Previously on MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
Should Europe
Emulate the US? – bruegel
Europe, by contrast, put early emphasis on
restoring fiscal sustainability, but neglected its private-sector maladies… As
a result, Europe emerged from the recession with too
many zombie banks, wounded households, and struggling companies. In Germany, the private economy was fit enough
to recover, but this was less true in southern Europe or even France.
“The
Euro Will Blow Up Europe Instead Of Bringing It Together” – Testosterone
Pit
Crisis
Could Be Causing the Balkanization of Europe – Opinion
/ BB
Portugal and Ireland: Us Too, Please – Marc
to Market
An
under-appreciated twist to the plot, however, comes from Ireland and Portugal.
Recall that 2011 mid-year summit, European officials adopted a principle
of equal treatment under the framework of the EFSF. Essentially, this means that consideration
given to Greece out to applied to the other
countries who are receive EFSF assistance, namely Ireland and Portugal.
Ireland to study new Greek deal for bailout benefits – Reuters
Ireland
will scour the euro zone's new Greek aid deal for anything that would help
Dublin's efforts to pull free from its own EU/IMF bailout as scheduled next
year, Finance Minister Michael Noonan said on Thursday.
Barroso's Christmas wish list – Open
Europe
The
Christmas wish list, or as Barroso puts it "A Blueprint for a deep and
genuine EMU" is as follows:
A negative euro lending rate
and year-end funding pressure – alphaville
/ FT
Llenders
currently have to pay people to take their euros off them…rates on the euro
side of a 3 month basis swap have now moved decisively into negative territory,
for the first time ever.
RESCUE
VEHICLES
EFSF
reacts to recent developments with the announcement of a one-year bond – EFSF
Why the ESM rules OK (says
the ECJ) – alphaville
/ FT
worth reading through the European Court of Justice’s judgment on the ESM in Pringle v Ireland, delivered on Tuesday.
worth reading through the European Court of Justice’s judgment on the ESM in Pringle v Ireland, delivered on Tuesday.
European Rescue Mechanism
Loses AAA Rating – ZH
The ESM loses an Aaa – alphaville
/ FT
Moody’s
downgrades the ESM ESM to Aa1 frin Aaa, EFSF to (P)Aa1 from Aaa
GREECE
After The Fat Lady Sings – A Fistful of
Euros
The curious
thing about the holdup in this case is that it isn’t the result of a stand-off between
the Troika and the Greek government.
Last week the Greek parliament passed the final set of budget decrees
required by the international lenders to enable the transfer. No, in this case
the dispute is an “internal affair” between the rival parties which make up the
Troika, and in particular between the German government and the IMF.
On Europe's
Apparent Utopia – ZH
Credit
Suisse: The inability, yet again, of the Eurogroup to reach an agreement in the
absence of market stress we don’t think bodes well for the ECB-backed positive
market environment to be sustained into 2013.
The Latest Greek Deal –
Another Indictment of Intergovernmentalism – Place
du Luxembourg
The Greek Debt Buyback
'Boondoggle' - Questions Answered – ZH
Reaction to Greek Deal – WSJ
New Greek bailout: the leaked
chart – Brussels
blog
Find “projected debt-to-GDP
ratio” where country = “Greece”; run eyeroll.exe – alphaville
/ FT
Buying back Greece: another ad hoc deal or a step towards a solution? – Open
Europe
Morning Briefing (Asia):
Dow On A Rollercoaster Ride – BNY
Mellon
Time for a
quick Q&A on the state of play with the Greek bailout talks.
UNITED STATES
Morgan Stanley 2013 Market
Call, Three Big Ideas
– BI
361 Capital Weekly Research
Briefing – The
Reformed Broker
Goldman's Guess At 'Cliff'
Compromise Composition – ZH
A Little Less Dovish... – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
By shifting
his threshold on inflation, Evan's concedes to the political realities within
the Fed. There was never much support
for anything like tolerance for 3 percent inflation; for most policymakers, I
suspect anything above 2.25 percent would be considered a threat to
credibility. By falling in line with the
rest of the FOMC, Evan abandons his role as a true dove, someone willing to
tolerate substantially higher inflation.
He is a dove now in the modern sense - a policymaker with a lower
inflation forecast that allows for a longer period of easier policy.
First, assume a can-opener – Free
exchange / The Economist
Those of us
who have spent much of the past few years complaining that Federal Reserve
policy was too tight to nurture a strong economic recovery are grateful for
Chicago Fed president Charles Evans
MARKETS & ECON
Global Central Bank Focus:
Déjà Vu All Over Again – PIMCO
If the
eurozone is to endure, it will require reduced economic differences among countries
and larger common fiscal capacity…While central banks in advanced economies
have not traditionally used explicit policies to target exchange rates, the
European debt crisis may change all that.
Score Card for 2012 Trade
Ideas – Global
Macro Trading
Global economy facing
hesitant and uneven recovery – OECD
OECD Economic Outlook – OECD
The death of volatility? – alphaville
/ FT
Central
bank puts have done a great job of removing tail risks…In FX, the move in
volatility has been notable:
Economic
Outlook Global – Here comes the sun – Nordea
(pdf)
or read the summary
China’s over-investment problem – alphaville
/ FT
A new IMF
working paper lays out what many China sceptics have been saying for
years: the country has too much investment, and households are bearing the
costs.
IN FINNISH
Ulkoisen ja sisäisen devalvaation vertailua osa I:
sisäinen devalvaatio tappaa kotitaloudet – tyhmyri
Mikä tepsii kriisiin: Baltian, Irlannin vai Islannin
lääke? – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Baltia taltutti talouskriisin railakkain vyönkiristyksin,
jollaiset näyttävät Irlannissakin vähitellen tepsivän. Kreikka ja muut etelän
kriisimaat nielevät turhaan samaa lääkettä, vaikka potevat eri tauteja. Paha
hoitovirhe olisi mahdollista välttää – tosin kielletyin lääkkein. Oikea resepti
ei löydy Baltiasta tai Irlannista vaan Islannista.
JP Morgan: Suomi eron jälkeen – Juhani
Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro
Käsittämätön tilanne Suomessa: ”Päättäjät valvovat itse
itseään ja päättävät, mitä kerrotaan poliisille” – Uusi
Suomi
130 kadonnutta miljardia – Risto
Pennanen / TalSa
Parinkymmenen vuoden hyvinvointisykäys on vaakalaudalla. Siksi
on pakko keksiä uutta vietävää.
Tämä vielä puuttui – nyt pelastamme vipurahastoja
– Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjät juhlivat jälleen Kreikan valtion uusia
"pelastustoimia", vaikka nämäkään toimet tuskin pelastavat Kreikkaa
tai lopettavat kriisiä. Virallinen Suomi ottaa osaa iloon, vaikka tiedossa on
tappioita. Aitoa juhlan aihetta lienee lähinnä vipurahastoilla, joille Kreikka III
tietää meheviä pikavoittoja.
Suomi romahti euroalueen pohjille – US