Now that the Japanese elections are done and the QE-party won, it seems all the major central banks except ECB are on extremely easy. Is ECB playing the role of hard to get on purpose - to push national politicians to the right direction, as in Spain - or are the central bank's hands tied? Who do you call when you want to call Europe, which one is in charge, Germany or ECB? I believe this is the main question that has to be answered in the first quarter.
Perhaps politically things might become a bit easier for ECB in 2013: when everyone else is printing and targeting low employment instead of inflation, it will become harder and harder for the Europeans to convince themselves that what they do makes sense. Thus, the current policies will be buried in time. As usual, for political reasons the mistakes cannot be admitted so the tens of millions of unemployed have to wait for their 'leaders' to act.
From the policy choices it is obvious that Merkel has known what is going on for the past three years. This is again a good reminder that economy is not for people, but people are for the economy. And political leaders are not for the people - people are for their leaders.
p.s. I updated the Calendar page.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt crisis
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers To Watch: EURUSD, EURGDP, USDJPY
levels – Saxo
Bank
A brief
review of the momentum factors for EURUSD, EURGBP, and USDJPY suggests that
USDJPY may be ripe for a reversal after a 3-month rally. But EURUSD still has
room to run higher, based on the 3.3% return for the 20 days through December
14.
Market Preview: Eurozone trade balance eyed – Saxo
Bank
European
markets are expected to open firmer Monday. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party regained
power in elections, boosting speculation of further easing. Markets await
Eurozone trade balance and US Empire state manufacturing data later today.
Danske Daily –
Danske Bank (pdf)
Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)
Vaalivoittaja LDP lupaa Japaniin elvytystä * Luottamusluvut vahvistavat kuvaa vakautuvasta eurotaloudesta * EURUSD korkeimmilleen toukokuun jälkeen
Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)
Vaalivoittaja LDP lupaa Japaniin elvytystä * Luottamusluvut vahvistavat kuvaa vakautuvasta eurotaloudesta * EURUSD korkeimmilleen toukokuun jälkeen
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkinat päätyivät perjantaina pieneen laskuun,
budjettikiistan painaessa päälle. Japanin uusi hallitus valittiin
viikonloppuna. Odotuksissa lisää löysää raha- ja finanssipolitiikkaa. Osakefutuurit
nollassa, indikoiden flättiä avausta pörssiin.
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat
EUROPE
European Risk Catalysts For The Next Six
Months – ZH
A blueprint for macroprudential policy in the
banking union – voxeu.org
The crisis
has shown how the Eurozone needs instruments to control bank-funding risks, as
implementation of the necessary prudential legislation at the EU level has been
much postponed. This column argues that the delay creates a precarious
situation, especially in the Eurozone where a banking union is been introduced.
Currently all liquidity policy is at the national level. Without some form of
coordination, this shift all bank funding risk to ultimate ECB support without
the Single Supervisory Mechanism having any adequate transition tools.
Fight for the Finnish – The
Weekly Standard
Leader of
the Finns party, Timo Soini, at a polling station in Espoo last January
UNITED STATES
US housing prices revert to long-term per
capita income growth
– Sober
Look
ASIA
The Massive Move in Won/Yen Cross – Global
Macro Monitor
Japan: landslide LDP victory paves the way for Abenomics – Danske Bank (pdf)
Japan: landslide LDP victory paves the way for Abenomics – Danske Bank (pdf)
OTHER
FX Comment: Monetary wars ON – Nordea