The best
article links from my past seven day’s posts – enjoy!
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
7-Dec EU Open US Payroll day
6-Dec US Close ECB done, federal Europe coming, payroll preview
6-Dec US Open Independence Day: The Unknown
Soldier
EUROPE
Private Wealth and European Solidarity – Project
Syndicate
A
little-discussed but crucial factor in the debate over wealth transfers from
Europe’s more economically sound north to its troubled south is the
relationship between public debt, GDP, and private wealth (households’ financial and
non-financial assets, minus their financial liabilities) – in particular, the
ratio of private wealth to GDP in the eurozone countries.
The most important number – Free
exchange / The Economist
All it
takes is one government to decide that it has had enough. The more places that have
chronically underemployed workers as a large plurality of the adult workforce,
the more likely such decisions become. If that were to occur, all the hard work
European leaders have gone to to save the single currency would probably be for
nought.
Would it have paid to be in
the eurozone? – National Bank
of Poland (pdf)
Next Up For A
"Recovering" Europe: A 30-50% Collapse In Wages In Spain, Italy And... France –ZH
Goldman
Sachs: We view relative wage cuts of this magnitude as unfeasible: it is
difficult to imagine France accepting a one-third fall in
living standards relative to Germany. Of course, one could rely on Germany to raise wages, so as to redress
the competitiveness gap from the other side. But ultimately such an approach
would imply Germany accepting much higher rates of
inflation, say above 4% pa for a decade or more, assuming the ECB met its
target of keeping area-wide inflation close to 2%. We doubt the German public
would countenance such an eventuality….
Chart of the week: a deadly
embrace – bruegel
As Europe is advancing its work on the banking
union, the increased dependence of banks on their sovereigns in the last year
has not received sufficient attention…sovereign debt restructuring is actually
becoming less likely and more mutulisation is possible. Even if sovereign debt
was unsustainable now, a debt restructuring would have more negative and
incalculable consequences on the banking system now than 5 years ago.
London Mayor demands pared
back EU links for Britain – Reuters
London
Mayor on Tuesday calling for a referendum on a deeply pared back British membership
of the EU.
David Cameron set to offer
in-out EU vote – presseurop
UK Prime
Minister “David Cameron is ready to give voters the chance of rejecting Britain’s membership of the European Union
in a landmark referendum,” reports The Times.
ECB afterthoughts: No
new help, Draghi throws ball back to Madrid – Saxo
Bank
GREECE
The Eurozone after the
November Eurogroup ‘Greek Deal’: On the current state of play – Yanis
Farouvakis
On November
27th, 2012,
the Eurogroup (comprising the Eurozone’s finance ministers) reached a decision
on Greece. Its essence is a guarantee that Greece will remain in the Eurozone (and
therefore off the Northern European agenda) for another ten to twelve months;
at the very least until the German federal political cycle has seen through the
election of a new Bundestag. The repercussions of this short-sighted agreement
are grave not only for Greece but for the Eurozone, and indeed
the European Union, more broadly.
Calm after the storm – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Is the
problem solved? Absolutely not. But has Germany achieved its goal of delaying any
disasters, or really tough decisions, until after its elections in the Autumn
of 2013? Almost certainly. So we could (famous last words) be in for a period
of relative calm on the euro zone crisis front.
FEDERAL
EUROPE
Will EU summit back eurozone
reform “contracts”?
– Brussels
blog / FT
The “for
discussion” only papers are to be signed – surprise!
EU summit to consider 'reform contracts' for
all euro states – euobserver
Draft ideas
ahead of next week's EU summit foresee reform contracts for all euro states,
political agreement on a full banking union and, post-2014, a budget for the
eurozone.
Analysis: For the EU, way ahead may be a
three-lane highway
– Reuters
Much has been
written over the past year about the risks of a two-speed Europe in which the 17 euro zone countries
move ahead more rapidly than the rest of the European Union.
Van Rompuy’s American-style
eurozone – Brussels
blog / FT
Van
Rompuy’s 14-page outline includes many of the ideas he’s been proffering since October,
including a requirement that all eurozone countries engage in “contractual
arrangements” with Brussels, committing them to economic reform
plans, and the creation of a eurozone budget. Barroso’s plan has similar
elements.
EU sets out detailed "map" for euro
zone's overhaul – Reuters
European
Union leaders will examine a detailed plan for completing a banking union and
strengthening euro zone fiscal policy next week, with officials concerned that
momentum is waning in tackling the debt crisis.
UNITED STATES
House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in October, Largest increase since 2006 – Calculated Risk
House Prices up 6.3% Year-over-year in October, Largest increase since 2006 – Calculated Risk
The Fiscal Cliff – Wonkblog
/ WP
“Absolutely
everything you could possibly need to know, in one FAQ”
Bloomberg's
'Ultimate' US Fiscal Cliff And Debt Primer – Slideshare
via ZH
Monetary Policy to Become
Easier Next Week? –
Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
There are
reasons to expect the Fed would go the full monty. Notably, the fiscal cliff drama already
appears to be affecting the economy, even though it is more risk than
reality. But why are inflation
expectations sliding? And what does that
imply about the effectiveness of additional easing at this juncture? Important but as of yet unanswered questions.
ASIA
Cut out’n'keep guide to prospective new BoJ governors – alphaville / FT
Cut out’n'keep guide to prospective new BoJ governors – alphaville / FT
Japan’s election on December 16 is going
to be a doozy. It’s probably the first election where the role and independence
of the central bank is a key issue, says Gavyn Davies. There’s also rather a
lot of yen short positions that are riding, at least in part, on the outcome
MARKETS
(audio) BizDaily:
Winning - and losing – BBC
(mp3)
Today Business
Daily has an interview with most successful investor of all time - Warren
Buffett. We'll be discovering how to build a 46 billion dollar fortune - so
have your pen and paper ready. And just in case that doesn't work out for you
we speak to another leader in his field - one of the world's most successful
casino designers.
Weekend Reading for Equity
Investors – CFA
Institute
Dividends,
Buybacks, and an Ill-Fated Acquisition
Is stock-picking just another
hobby for men? – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
Popular Delusions: The bull
case for safe havens
– John
Mauldin / The Big Picture
SocGen’s
Dylan Grice’s note.
Investing in, Not Gambling
Within, the Casino
– All
About Alpha
Ineichen’s
effort to steer investors away from some myths. From the point of view of the hedge
fund industry, some of the myths are negative (such as the idea that hedge fund
investing is just gambling) some are positive (such as the notion that hedge
funds generate strong returns in all market conditions.)
Why have Global Macro Hedge
Funds underperformed?
– Macronomics
Trade Ideas for 2013 – Global
Macro Trading
2012 ideas
and what happened to them can be found here.
Investment Outlook Dec 2012:
Strawberry Fields – Forever? – PIMCO
My Christmas Wish List – Steen
Jakobsen / Saxo Bank
Could you
please take all politicians, central bankers and chief economists far, far away
for the next five years? I promise you Europe will be growing at 3%+, the US at 5% and Asia will be reformed and moving smartly
towards its proper role in the world economy when they come back. Yes, it is
that simple.
Global Scenario: The
tide is turning – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The global
economy is set for a moderate recovery in 2013 * Decreasing uncertainty and
more forceful stimulus underpin growth * Emerging Markets to give new impetus
to global demand * The US economy is projected to strengthen after a short-term
bump * The euro area leaves recession but growth stays weak
OFF-TOPIC
The Great Oil Fallacy – National
Interest
On the
right, the need for oil is seen as justifying an expanded and assertive
military posture, as well as the removal of restrictions on domestic drilling.
On the left, U.S. foreign-policy is seen through the
prism of “War for Oil,” while the specter of Peak Oil threatens to bring the
whole system down in ruins.
BizDaily: The future of world
energy – BBC
(mp3)
Is the
world about to run out of oil and natural gas? Are fears that the world is
approaching 'peak oil', the moment we begin to run out of supplies, misplaced?
Ayn Rand Was NOT a
Libertarian – ZH
Many people
assume that Ayn Rand was a champion of libertarian thought. But Rand herself pilloried libertarians,
condemning libertarianism as being a greater threat to freedom and capitalism
than both modern liberalism and conservativism.
Offshore secrets revealed:
the shadowy side of a booming industry – The
Guardian
A worldwide
research effort in collaboration with BBC Panorama and the ICIJ reveals the people
behind these anonymous companies
Enemies
at the Gates: Security Lessons from a Foiled Embassy Attack – Foreign Affairs
In 2001, Washington
and Singapore prevented a major terrorist attack on the U.S. embassy in Singapore. Here's how they did it.
IN FINNISH
Rahoitusmarkkinavero
– Hannu
Visti
(audio) Onko
taloustiede ideologiaa? – YLE
Taloustieteen ideologiasta ja eurokriisin ideologisuudesta
ja ratkaisuvaihtoehdoista väittelevät maailmanpolitiikan professori Heikki Patomäki
Helsingin yliopistosta ja tutkija Niku Määttänen ETLAsta. Sakari Sirkkanen
toimittajana. (38 min.)
Ajantasan lauantaivieras Jan Hurri – YLE1
Taloustoimittaja Jan Hurri etsii työssään vaihtoehtoisia
tulkintoja viralliselle totuudelle. Ajantasan lauantaivieraan, Suomen
Kuvalehden Journalistipalkinnon saaneen Jan Hurrin tapasi toimittaja Janne
Junttila.
Näin se etenee – eurokraattien vallankaappaus
– Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Alkuviikon Kreikka-sopimukset ovat vaikutuksiltaan
eurokriisin sivujuoni sen rinnalla, mitä komissio täyttä päätä valmistelee:
talousvallan siirtoa euromaiden parlamenteilta EU:n virkakunnalle. Komission mielestä
tämä "eurokraattien vallankaappaus" on välttämätön – muuten meidät
hukka perii.
Ulkoisen ja sisäisen devalvaation vertailua osa II:
Miksi ulkoinen devalvaatio nostaa talouden lamasta? – tyhmyri
Kallista pankki- ja vaalitukea Saksaan – sinä maksat
– Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Saksa on sittenkin valmis antamaan anteeksi Kreikan
tukiluottoja – mutta vasta sitten, kun maan oma "vaalisykli" sallii
ja "omat" pankit ovat kuivilla. Saksa haluaa saada omansa pois ennen
Kreikka-lainojen leikkauksia. Temppu onnistuu, kunhan Suomi ja muut euromaat
jatkavat kiltisti maksamista.
Amerikkalaisguru Helsingissä: "Euromaiden vajeet
yhteiseen piikkiin" – TE