Nykyisen EU-kehityksen jatko on kiinni siitä, mitä Saksa päättää, eikä ne uskalla toimia ilman muiden maiden tukea - jos Saksa fantsuttelisi yksinään, niin se olisi niille poliittisesti liian raskasta. Sen takia tarvitaan satellitteja kuten Suomi, joiden avulla voidaan selittää sakupankkien tappioiden häivyttämiset "Euroopan pelastamiseksi" sekä jakaa kustannuksia. Saksalla ei ole paljon fantsuttelukavereita. Suomen linjan muuttuminen joku kaunis päivä on EU:lle isompi rätti kuin Iso-Britannian sooloilu. – MoreLiver 12-Feb-2013
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
Roundup – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
Tomorrow’s Tape: Retail Sales, Cisco, Whole Foods
Earnings – WSJ
US: Oil
Pops, Apple Drops, And Stocks Take Out More Stops – ZH
EUROPE
Reducing the EU's dependency on raw materials – EU
Good charts
on what comes and from where.
ECB
What chance a direct shot from the ECB? – alphaville
/ FT
Little or
none seems to be the answer…I wrote on Monday about the ECB’s options for
expanding its balance sheet but skimmed over the idea of direct FX intervention
on the presumption it just wasn’t going to happen and the ECB would push via
less obvious channels. As I was (justifiably) rebuked, the aim here is to make
quick amends.
ECB to Assess Impact of Euro’s Rise at March
Meeting – WSJ
The ECB
will be able to analyze in greater detail the impact of the euro's appreciation
on growth and inflation in the single-currency area when its economists present
new forecasts at its March policy meeting, its president said Tuesday.
PIIGS
Why the Irish Bank Deal Matters—Especially for Cyprus – PIIE
The Irish
deal with the ECB and other European central banks to relieve the huge Irish
debt burden resulting from the bank bailout four years ago has arrived even
faster than predicted here. This is good news. The Irish government can now
avoid the €3.1 billion promissory note payment due at the end of March and save
some much needed cash. Moreover, the agreement illustrates the political
flexibility of the euro area in designing financial support for a member trying
to get out from under the tough terms of its rescue by the IMF.
The domestic-law
genie – alphaville
/ FT
The finance
minister of eurozone country X declares (as Vassos Shiarly of Cyprus did on Monday) that its bonds/its
banks’ bonds/their depositors simply cannot be written down. Why? Eurozone
country X’s constitution and laws just don’t allow it! Well, on the contrary.
Beppe
Grillo, the Italian comic poised to play a spoiler in this month’s national
elections, is gaining ground in opinion polls as he campaigns for sovereign
debt relief to revive the country’s stagnant economy…Support for Grillo’s party
rose to 18.8 percent in a Feb. 8 SWG Institute poll from 15.9 percent in a Jan
11 survey. That compares with a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 33.8
percent for Bersani and gains of 2.5 percentage points for Berlusconi over the
same period.
UNITED STATES
FED
Fed’s Lockhart Sees Bond Buying Continuing Into
2nd Half of 2013 – WSJ
The Fed
will likely have to continue with its bond buying efforts into the second half
of this year but needs to watch out for the possible formation of asset price
bubbles, a key central bank official said.
The lone
dissenting voice on the Federal Open Market Committee defended her hawkish
philosophy Tuesday and reiterated her call for the Fed to proceed cautiously
with easy money policies.
STOCKS
About That Earnings Acceleration – Crossing
Wall Street
Q4 Earnings Outpacing Estimates – Bespoke
With 70% of
the Q4 reporting period now complete, earnings growth has been stronger than
expected across the board. The market
appears to be responding accordingly.
Explaining My
Position on Secular Bear Markets – The
Big Picture
361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing – The
Reformed Broker
ASIA
Kuroda Campaigns for BOJ Post – Marc
to Market
The yen: it's all about the CA deficit – alphaville / FT
Based on
the BoJ’s trade-weighted index, the yen actually peaked in October 2012, right
before the first deficit in adjusted CA was released on 8
November 2012.
Japan Will Win the Currency War, but at What Cost? – WSJ
This is the first step on the road to Japan’s recovery. It is a prime minister carefully observing the policies of the Federal Reserve and doing what Japan has always done best — duplicate and improve upon.
This is the first step on the road to Japan’s recovery. It is a prime minister carefully observing the policies of the Federal Reserve and doing what Japan has always done best — duplicate and improve upon.
OTHER
Betting on
global stocks and oil as it expects money to move into equities and other
assets amid increased economic confidence.
CURRENCY WAR / G7 STATEMENT
G-7 Statement Postmortem And Five Years Of
Context – ZH
Group of
Seven policy makers roiled the currency markets they sought to calm amid
conflicting messages on how much of an economic threat is posed by the
weakening yen.
What devaluation actually means – Buttonwood
/ The Economist
Other
governments don't seem to mind as long as the yen doesn't fall too fast and the
Japanese don't say they are trying to weaken their currency. Or as Chris
Turner, the head of FX strategy at ING, put it: It's fine to devalue, just don't talk
about it
Who Will Win The Currency Wars? – Asia
Confidential / ZH
BONDS
This is not 1994 – alphaville
/ FT
Dario
Perkins at Lombard Street Research has a great little note out on Tuesday
arguing why it’s absolutely wrong to assume the current bond sell-off is in any
shape or form a repeat of 1994.
10-Year Technicals – Bespoke
As long as
the yield continues to hold support in the near term without breaking below its
uptrend channel, we're likely to see 2%+ again sooner rather than later.
What drove the 30yr mortgage rate higher? – Sober
Look
IN FINNISH
EU-budjetti – Euroopalle siedettävä, Suomelle
surkea – Sampo Terho
Federalisteille
köniin EU-budjettiväännössä – Henri
Myllyniemi / piksu
Terhon työryhmä
tunnistaa tosiasiat: verotus on jo tapissa – Perussuomalainen
Terhon teesit
tarkempaan syyniin – Perussuomalainen
Europarlamentaarikko Sampo Terhon työryhmän raportti Suomen
talouden pelastamisohjelmaksi sai kovaa kritiikkiä osakseen mm.
perussuomalaisten eduskuntaryhmän johdolta. – Ymmärrän kritiikin, mutta tämä
oli vasta keskustelun avaus, Terho painottaa.
Aikamme suurin
poliittinen kysymys ei koske sukupuolista suuntautumista – Johannes
Hirvaskoski / US Puheenvuoro
Kypros EU:n
rahaministerien päähuolena Brysselissä – TalSa
EU-maiden valtiovarainministereiden Ecofin-neuvostolla
riitti huolia euron vahvistumisesta ja Kyproksen tukipaketista tiistaina
Brysselissä. Saksa vaatii kriisimaiden julkisen velkaantumisen saamista kuriin.
Veronmaksaja, näin sinun rahojasi törsätään
suomalaiseen mediaan – Markku
Huusko / US Puheenvuoro