25th Feb - EU Open: Waiting for Italy's vote

I'll be updating the Italian election-special today. The world seems normal otherwise: JPY and GBP are weak, Europe muddles through, China's PMI reverted to mean after couple of very good months.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Special: Italian Elections
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Roundups

News roundup – Between The Hedges

The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT

Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

MORNING BRIEFINGS

3 Numbers to Watch: US CFNAI, US Dallas Fed Mfg Index, EURUSD – TradingFloor

Two economic reports from the US are the main attraction for today’s economic news, and neither one is likely to provide much relief for EURUSD’s recent slide.

Market Preview: Moody's cuts UK's rating; Italian elections eyed – TradingFloor

European markets are likely to open higher Monday amid hopes that aggressive monetary easing might continue in the US and Japan. On Friday, Moody's lowered its credit rating on the UK to Aa1. Italian election exit polls will also be in focus today.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)

On Friday evening Moody’s became the first rating agency to strip the UK of its AAA rating. The first day of the Italian elections took place with unpublished opinion polls suggesting that Bersani is likely to win with a small margin. Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI showed a disappointing decline to 50.4

 

Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)

Jännitystä Italian vaaleista – Saksan talous kääntyy * Kiinan talouden maltillinen elpyminen saanee jatkoa * Odotuksia pienemmät LTRO-takaisinmaksut painoivat Saksan korkoja

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)

Tänään sijoittajien huomio kiinnittyy Italian vaalitulokseen. Edellisviikko päättyi vahvasti Saksan positiivisen IFO-indeksin myötä. Aamulla julkaistu Kiinan ostopäällikköindeksi oli sen sijaan heikko.

Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet

Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat

EUROPE

Is a monetary union without fiscal/political union doomed? – mainly macro

Debt, Spreads, and Mysterious Omissions – Krugman / NYT

Euro Delusions – Krugman / NYT

  UK DOWNGRADE

The UK loses one of its triple-A’s – Nordea

The UK was downgraded one notch by Moody’s from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday. Moody’s says the rating outlook is now stable. It is not a major surprise that the UK has been downgraded.

Bank puts its economic reputation at stake – The A-list / FT

Credibility is seeping away from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. The minutes released last week revealed fundamental differences of view at best and muddle at worst within the committee. They showed that three of the nine votes cast were in favour of a change in policy.

The Meaning of Moody's Downgrade of the UK: Nothing – Marc to Market

UNITED STATES

The US: Self-inflicted pain – how badly will the cuts hurt? – Nordea

Absent any last-minute agreements in Washington DC, across-the-board federal spending cuts will hit the US economy starting 1 March, when the so-called sequester will begin taking effect with USD 1.2trn in cuts over the next decade.

The Other Sequestration That No One Is Talking About – ZH

Is the US facing a housing shortage? – Sober Look

FED

The Fed to face challenges as it ultimately exits the unprecedented monetary expansion – Sober Look

S.F. Fed’s Williams: Fed Should Continue Aggressive Efforts to Help Economy

Boston Fed’s Rosengren: Benefits of Fed Bond-Buying Outweigh Potential Risks

SF Fed’s Williams: Concerns About Future Shouldn’t Stop Fed From Aggressive Action Now

St. Louis Fed’s Bullard: Fed’s ‘Easy’ Policy To Stay For A ‘Long Time’

DJ Fed’s Rosengren: Higher Large Bank Capital Standards May Be Needed

ASIA

Yen Plunges As Uber-Dove Kuroda Set To Head Bank Of Japan – ZH

China HSBC PMI Misses, Prints At Four Month Low – ZH

HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI – Markit (pdf)

OTHER

FX Comment: And the loser is… – Nordea

Where things almost couldn't get worse, it did for GBP. Only "risk on" striking back and dovish Bernanke can save the day.

Chart Of The Day: Risk On Trade – Short Side of the Long

Risk On trade is not completely correlated as many think

Stress Indicators: still risk on...barely, but cracks are showing – TradingFloor

IN FINNISH

Suomalainen Twitter on pilkottu palasiksi - tarkkoja lukuja julki ensimmäistä kertaa – YLE

Mikroblogipalvelu Twitterin käytöstä Suomessa on julkaistu tänään harvinaisen tarkkaa uutta tietoa. Finnish Twitter Census -sivusto paljastaa, että Twitterissä on noin 63 000 suomenkielellä twiittaavaa. Sivulla oleva visualisointi kertoo myös, että suomalainen Twitter-yhteisö on jakautunut noin seitsemään erilaiseen alajoukkoon.

Viru-hotelli oli suomalainen Troijan hevonen – YLE

Tallinnassa vuonna 1972 avattu Viru-hotelli oli pitkään neuvostovirolaisten ikkuna länteen. Dokumenttielokuva Viru - tarinoita hotellista tulee elokuvateattereihin maaliskuun alussa.

http://yle.fi/uutiset/viru-hotelli_oli_suomalainen_troijan_hevonen/6481432

Eksynyt EU – Henri Myllyniemi / piksu

Kukaan ei voi tarkkaan sanoa, onko EU ja euro ollut Suomelle hyödyllinen vai ei – Toimi Kankaanniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Sanna Ukkola: Jyrki, astu esiin! – YLE

Pääministeri Jyrki Kataisen tapa hoitaa vaikeita tilanteita on vaikeneminen. Kriisitilanteissa Katainen lymyilee ministereidensä selän takana kuin kokoomuksen mainoksissa esiintyvä, päänsä hiekkaan piilottava strutsi, kirjoittaa Sanna Ukkola.

Miksi Saksa ei anna Euroalueen toipua – miksi antaisi koska kaikkihan menee Saksan kannalta kuten pitääkin – tyhmyri