Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Off-Topic (not markets-related!)
Weekender: Economics & Markets (long & nice)
Weekender: Weekly Support (weekly briefings)
Weekender: Best of the Week (from my last week’s posts)
Roundups
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
MORNING BRIEFINGS
Market Preview: EU current account and Draghi's
speech in focus – TradingFloor
With a
light global economic calender, European markets are expected to open mostly
lower Monday. Today's Eurozone current account data and PMI and sentiment indices data in Europe due later in the week are likely to
hold market interest.
G20 meeting
ended without any direct criticism of Japan’s expansionary policy. USD/JPY is
back at 94 and the Nikkei index is up close to 2%. Today should be fairly quiet
with only tier-2 data and the US closed for Presidents’ day but keep
an eye on ECB president Draghi’s speech at the European Parliament.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)
Likviditeetin väheneminen nostaa korkoja euroalueella * Luottamusluvut
paranemassa euroalueella Italian vaalit
uhkaavat markkinarauhaa * USA:n vahvat luottamusluvut tukivat EURUSD:tä ja
riskinottoa korkomarkkinoilla
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Wal-Martin heikko myynnin alku helmikuussa säikäytti
osakemarkkinat viime viikon lopuksi. Japani ei joutunut valokeilaan G20-maiden
kokouksessa, jeni heikkenee jälleen ja maan osakemarkkina lentää. Markkinoita
liikuttavaa makrodataa alkaa tulemaan keskiviikosta alkaen, alkuviikko
hiljainen. Tuloskauden raportointi rauhoittuu tällä viikolla, tänään raportin
Ilkka klo 15.00. Osakefutuurit hieman plussalla, indikoiden nousuavausta
pörssiin.
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat
EUROPE
TPG-Backed Saxo Bank Says Euro Doomed as
Currency Woes Resurface – BB
Lars Seier
Christensen, co-chief executive officer of Danish bank Saxo Bank A/S, said the
euro’s recent rally is illusory and the shared currency is set to fail because
the continent hasn’t supported it with a fiscal union. “Right now we’re in one
of those fake solutions where people think that the problem is contained or
being addressed, which it isn’t at all.”
No debate please, we're Europeans – Not
The Treasury View
But of
course the really surprising thing is that Mr Rehn should be writing to Finance
Ministers, and the IMF Managing Director, complaining that an academic paper on
a very policy-relevant, but highly technical issue of empirical macroeconomics,
represented "debate which has not been helpful".
Recent
policy and academic debates have begun to influence Eurozone reform. But how
sound is the advice we give out? This column argues that calls for a Eurozone
or full-fledged EU superstate are overstated. Yes, developing an adequate
system of European banking supervision is a matter of urgency if we hope to
tackle the threat posed by an overdeveloped and opaque financial system. But
calling for a superstate misunderstands the reasons politicians introduced the
euro in the first place.
Of fish, flowers, AKs, offshore banking, and
now horsemeat – Fistful
of Euros
Big
depositors, you say? And who might they be? I think it is fair to say that
nobody is particularly keen to bail out Viktor Bout or Horsemeat Guy. As a
result, it’s politically very possible that the whole idea of a bail-in might
get tested. And whether it does, and the exact terms, are increasingly linked
to things like “how far into the maze the journalists get” and “whether Richard
Chichakli starts singing in jail”.
Now for the second big one – Nordea
The other
bigger one-time repayment of ECB 3-year loans will take place next week, when
the second 3-year LTRO will have its first repayment date. The repayment
interest is likely to come below the EUR 137bn seen in the first operation.
UNITED STATES
Update: Recovery Measures – Calculated
Risk
Stanley and the Crazies – Krugman
/ NYT
OTHER
Biases, Biases Everywhere – ZH
Goldman
Sachs: Biases creep into the investment process at two important stages: when
forming estimates and the investment decision.
FX Comment: Eyes wide shut – Nordea
Big chance
for EURUSD to rebound above 1.3300 as the European numbers confirm EMU recovery
this week...
The Importance of the G20: Not What You Think – Marc
to Market
There was
something important coming from the G20 meeting, but it is not the currency
wars that have captured so many imaginations in the media and blogosphere. It
was about corporate taxes, but before turning to it, let's try to put the
currency statement in perspective.
"Great Rotation", Over – ZH
As Goldman
Sachs' funds flow and positioning monitor shows
Investing in a Low-Growth World – John
Mauldin / The Big Picture
Jeremy
Grantham: Courtesy of the above Fed policy, all global assets are once again
becoming overpriced. This reminds me of the idea sometimes attributed to
Einstein that a workable definition of madness is constantly repeating the same
actions but expecting a different outcome! But, as always, asset prices are not
uniformly overpriced: emerging markets and, we believe, Japan are only moderately overpriced.
European stocks are also only a little expensive, but in today’s world are
substantially more risky than normal. The great global franchise companies also
seem only moderately overpriced.