Picks from my posts since the previous 'Best of'.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
Blogs review: A bird’s eye
view on Bruegel’s research in the crisis – bruegel
In the
spirit of the Stability and Growth Pact, we decided to grant an exception the
rules governing our blogs review and survey some of our very own publications
for those of you (especially in the blogosphere since we were pretty late at
joining the dance) who may have missed these.
Europe’s Debt Crisis Endgames—Stealth Solutions – EconoMonitor
Satyajit Das: The probable endgame of Europe’s debt
crisis is already known – de facto mutualisation of European debt and greater
integration. But the precise events leading up to it are unknown. The story is
being told backward.
Europe’s robust financial-transactions tax – MacroScope
/ Reuters
The details
of Europe’s new financial transactions tax
won’t be made public for a few weeks, but the FT’s Alex Barker has seen a
draft, and it looks impressively robust.
The surprisingly long path to US monetary union – alphaville
/ FT
Deutsche
Bank strategist Stuart Parkinson makes the interesting argument that it took
about 147 years
ECB, EURO’S
STRENGTH
The ECB will come
under pressure in the currency wars – The
A-list / FT
Mohamed El-Erian: Having solved its urgent problem,
the eurozone needs to deal with a new dilemma: that of an appreciating currency.
There is a growing number of countries seeking to weaken their own currencies.
Indeed, in the last six months, the euro has appreciated by 11 per cent against
the US dollar and by 8 per cent in nominal trade weighted terms. It has
appreciated by a lot more against the Japanese yen.
As The Euro Soars, This Is
Where The "Max Pain" In Europe Is – ZH
Deutsche:
When controlling for the pace of world demand and when looking at the Euro area
as an aggregate, we are according to our estimates currently in or near the
“danger zone” where the exchange rate is effectively undermining
competitiveness.
Euro zone
lending falls for 8th month – Reuters
Loans to
companies and households in the euro zone contracted for the eighth month
running in December, showing low official borrowing costs are having little
success in reviving investment and spending.
SPAIN
Envelopes of Cash: Corruption
Charges Put Madrid on Defensive – Spiegel
New
revelations about the corruption scandal that is rocking Spanish politics has
put conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his party on the defensive.
Voters are beginning to lose patience.
Spain's Rajoy, ruling party deny secret payment scheme – Reuters
Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy and Spain's ruling People's Party denied on
Thursday that the party made payments from business donors to the premier and
other party leaders after a newspaper published what it said were secret party
accounts.
Spain Recession Deepens More Than Forecast Amid Austerity – BB
CYPRUS
Cyprus’s now-certain default – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
Cyprus and the euro: Aphrodite’s indebted island – The
Economist
Could a
country smaller than Sicily reignite the euro crisis? In June
2012 the Cypriot government asked for a bail-out after the two largest banks,
stacked with Greek bonds, fell victim to the 2011 write-down of Greek debt.
Seven months on, time is running out.
Germany won’t stand in Cyprus’ way, apparently – alphaville
/ FT
Cyprus, the small economy with the
relatively massive bank recapitalisation problem, may have some kind of good
news in its quest for a bailout: Germany might not be so wedded to blocking
or delaying said bailout after all.
ECONOMICS & MARKETS
Why financial markets are
inefficient – voxeu.org
Roger E. A.
Farmer: The efficient market hypothesis – in various forms – is at the heart of
modern finance and macroeconomics. This column argues that market efficiency is
extremely unlikely even without frictions or irrationality. Why? Because there
are multiple equilibria, only one of which is Pareto efficient. For all other
equilibria, the whims of market participants cause the welfare of the young to
vary substantially in a way they would prefer to avoid, if given the choice.
This invalidates the first welfare theorem and the idea of financial market
efficiency. Central banks should thus dampen excessive market fluctuations.
'Wealth Effects Revisited:
1975-2012' – Economist’s
View
Housing
cycles matter.
Ray
Dalio: Cash Will Move Into 'Stuff' in 2013 – Marketfolly
East versus West - two states
of mind – TradingFloor
Steen
Jakobsen: In Europe, we have crisis tunnel vision,
while the big Asian economies face a critical transition period. Meanwhile, the
small, illiquid economies are the frontier offering the most opportunity - and
risk.
Policymaker's Guide To
Playing The Global Currency Wars – ZH
Steven
Englander, Citi: “Do you only know how to play? Or can you shoot as well?”
Bye, bye RoRo – alphaville /
FT
JP Morgan:
Correlations across dollar pairs are collapsing to their lowest level in five
years (chart 1), which is statistical jargon for currency moves having little
to do with global issues and almost everything to do with local ones.
OFF-TOPIC
Checklist:
Are you doing these five things to be the best? – Barking
How roads could beat rail – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
Why You Truly Never Leave
High School – The New York Magazine
New science
on its corrosive, traumatizing effects.
Everybody’s An Expert – Farnam
Street
One of
Tetlock’s counter-intuitive findings is that specialists are not significantly
more reliable than non-specialists in predicting what is going to happen, even in
the field they study.
Building Blocks and
Innovation – Farnam
Street
Most
innovation comes from combining well-known, well-established, building blocks in
new ways.
What would George Orwell have
made of the world in 2013? – The
Guardian
If he were alive
today, would he be writing about call centres and Occupy? Or would he have
become a rightwing food writer? It's not as crazy as it sounds
The west's crisis is one of
democracy as much as finance – The
Guardian
Slavoj Žižek:
The spirit of dictators like Ceausescu is finding new life in the response of
the European elite to pressures in the eurozone
IN FINNISH
Tuhat miljardia euroa – kuin taikurin hatusta – Jan Hurri / TalSa
Tuhat miljardia euroa – kuin taikurin hatusta – Jan Hurri / TalSa
Euroalueen keskuspankki EKP lupasi puoli vuotta sitten, että
se puolustaa euroa tarvittaessa vaikka rajattomin velkakirjaostoin. Vielä se ei
ole käyttänyt tukiostoihin euroakaan, mutta lupaus on tuottanut riskipitoisen
finanssivarallisuuden omistajille mojovan pikavoiton: tuhat miljardia euroa.
Irtisanoudun yhteisistä eurooppalaista arvoista
– Olli
Pusa / US Puheenvuoro
(keskustelu on huima)
Kriisitietoa komissaareille ja muille haaveilijoille
– Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjillä ei ole toivoa taltuttaa kriisiä niin kauan
kuin he sulkevat silmänsä kriisin syiltä. Näin tekee esimerkiksi EU:n
korkea-arvoisin viranhaltija, komission puheenjohtaja José Manuel Barroso. Hän
väittää yhä, että Kreikka ja muut kriisimaat kärsivät Yhdysvaltain vastuuttoman
finanssialan ylilyönneistä eivätkä suinkaan Euroopan omista virheistä.
Maahanmuutto ja
työvoimapula – Hesari kirjoittaa melkoista höpöä aiheen tiimoilta – tyhmyri
Urpilainen huolissaan
nuorisotyöttömyydestä – syytä onkin – tyhmyri