Previously on MoreLiver’s:
ECONOMICS
How should central banks think about the
financial system? –
Free
exchange / The Economist
Monetary
policy alters the incentives for financial firms to take risk, for both good
and ill. The good news is that, in theory, central bankers have the tools to
restrain both bubbles and panics. The bad news is that the price stability and
financial stability mandates are often “orthogonal” in the short term,
according to Mr Brunnermeier. Actions taken to prevent disinflation can
encourage excessive risk-taking, while anti-inflationary measures can
inadvertently exacerbate or induce panics.
Economic nationalism will only fuel failure – The
A-list / FT
Stephen
King: Currency wars may be all the rage but they are merely a symptom of a much
more deep-rooted problem. We are witnessing the return of economic nationalism.
At the 2009 London Group of 20 summit, it seemed for a fleeting moment that
nations had learnt how to work together to solve the world’s economic and
financial problems. That dream no longer holds. Persistent economic stagnation
has left our political leaders increasingly looking for national solutions to
what have become deeply-entrenched international problems.
The End Of An Era – Tullet Prebon / ZH
The economy
as we know it is facing a lethal confluence of four critical factors – the
fall-out from the biggest debt bubble in history; a disastrous experiment with
globalisation; the massaging of data to the point where economic trends are
obscured; and, most important of all, the approach of an energy-returns
cliff-edge.
(podcast) ITB: Inflation - friend or foe? – BBC
(mp3)
Is
inflation still public enemy number one? For most of us it simply means price
rises, but is there a positive side to this one-time economic bogeyman? Plus
with the help of our resident comedian, Colm O'Regan, we go in search of
economic nirvana Is there's such a thing as a perfect economy? Or is it just
the stuff of fairytales? Guests Mohamed El Erian, CEO of
the global investment company PIMCO; Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard professor in
International Finance and Macroeconomics and previously a member of President
Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers; and Brigitte Granville, Professor of
International Economics and Economic Policy at Queen Mary, University of London.
Quelle Surprise! IMF Always Prescribes the Same
Austerity Hairshirt
– naked
capitalism
Why Is Productivity Slowing Down? – WSJ
Nearly all
the world’s advanced economies are grappling with a productivity problem.
Starting a decade ago, the rate of growth in multifactor productivity started
skidding across the industrialized world.
Ray Dalio Schools You on the Great Rotation
Debate – The
Reformed Broker
Central Banks Say Bubbles Are O.K. – WSJ
MARKETS & TRADING
The value of value: Fashions are changing in
the stockmarket – Buttonwood
/ The Economist
Is it time
for a change in investment style? The general rise in stockmarkets this year
may be disguising a fundamental shift within the market.
The Appeal of Investments That Cost More and
Return Less – NYT
The Real, and Simple, Equation That Killed Wall
Street – SciAm
Currencies Are All About Yields Now, Rather
Than Risk – WSJ
The Most Common Error
in Stock Market Research – A
Dash of Insight
Many of the
popular pundits, despite their apparent use of data, have developed inaccurate
and over-fit models. It is better to have simple models with more relevant
data. These may not seem as impressive at first glance, but prove to be more
robust in practice.
Full data set – Reinhart and Rogoff
Banker with African experience: 'Send everyone
into real banking first' – The
Guardian
'People
become traders without ever having seen what banking actually is' – The
Guardian
Ex-compliance officer: 'I had to tell the
trader what to do – I had two minutes' – The
Guardian
A PhD
graduate who used to work in a bank and brokerage firm explains what it feels
like to be the regulators' in-house man
BULL OR BEAR
Upside Risks – The Reformed
Broker
Against
such an awful and seemingly inevitable backdrop of tears and fears, the risk is
to the upside. Pray for pullbacks; anticipate them like the cooling,
restorative rainstorms they are.
The Secular Bear Market in Stocks Is Over – dshort
Earnings and Revenues Beat Rates for Q4 2012 – Bespoke
HEDGE
FUNDS
Why the world's biggest hedge fund missed big
in 2012 – Fortune
Bridgewater
Associate's Ray Dalio has long been one of the market's best seers. That could
be coming to an end. (see also Zero Hedge’s earlier piece)
Soros Says Hedge Funds Can’t Beat Market
Because of Fees – BB
Great Interviews From Market Masters – The
Short Side of the Long
READ
MORE!
Blogs we like – Lighthouse
IM
Suggested Reading List – UMASS
Finance Society (pdf)
Apparently
from Goldman Sachs around 2007.
The Complete And Unabridged Works Of Dylan
Grice – ZH
244-page
compendium covering the bulk of Grice's work over the past 4 years. Covering
the financial gamut: from Valuation, to the Euro Crisis, to Japan, to Asia, to Gold and commodities, all the
way to the Philosophically arcane, we are confident that the attached
presentation will provide countless hours of reading pleasure for all.
Just Released: CFA Institute Magazine (Jan/Feb
2013) – CFA
Institute