10th Aug - Weekender: Linkfest

After couple of days of blogging holiday, here are some of the more interesting article links from the past couple of days. Notice the unusually large Finnish-language section.

EUROPE

Brussels blog round up 3 – 9 August – Europp / LSE

Gibraltar-Spain, Middle East peace talks, and is there any point to economic analysis?

To end the Eurozone crisis, bury the debt forever – voxeu.org

Pierre Pâris, Charles Wyplosz: The Eurozone’s debt crisis is getting worse despite appearances to the contrary. How can we end it? This column presents five major options for reducing crisis countries’ debt. Looking into the details, it seems the only option that is both realistic and effective is for countries to default by selling monetised debt to the ECB. Moral hazard aside, burying the debt seems to be the only way we can end the crisis.

Why the eurozone will come apart sooner or later – FT

Samuel Brittan: The single currency has failed to become the harmonising force that it was supposed to be

The Euro Crisis – It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over – PragCap

Interesting note here from Bridgewater on the Euro crisis (via ValueWalk).  They cite 5 reasons why the Euro crisis isn’t over:

A Weaker Euro for a Weaker Europe – Project Syndicate

The debate about how to help deficit-ridden southern European economies is often presented as a conflict between them and the eurozone’s healthy core, particularly Germany. But a new and more important imbalance – southern Europe's trade and services deficits with China – suggests a possible solution to economic malaise: a weaker euro.

  

Defend Europe, if you still dare – The Telegraph

Euro area housing market monitor – Danske Bank (pdf)

With regard to housing markets, the euro area looks like independent economies rather than a single market. Germany, France, Spain and Ireland appear to be at each of four distinct phases in a stylised

housing market cycle, namely boom, bubble, bust and trough.

  ECB

ECB Monetary Policy in the Recession: A New Keynesian (Old Monetarist) Critique – FED (pdf)

Use of the New Keynesian model to identify shocks points to contractionary monetary policy as the cause of the Great Recession in the Eurozone

The ECB Grows Up – Project Syndicate

Barry Eichengreen: The ECB statute was not engraved on stone tablets and handed down on Mount Sinai. It is a man-made charter, and it should be treated – by the German Constitutional Court and others – as a living document that is to be interpreted in light of current events.

Forward guidance and the ECB – voxeu.org

Peter Praet: The ECB recently changed its monetary policy communication strategy to include a form of forward guidance. This column, written by ECB Executive Board Member Peter Praet, explains the new thinking and argues that it has contributed to more clarity over the ECB’s assessment of the outlook and its reaction function as well as helping to stabilise money-market conditions and anchor expectations more firmly.

Opening up the ECB will undermine its independence – The A-list / FT

Monthly Bulletin, August 2013 – ECB (pdf)

Statistics Pocket Book, August 2013 – ECB (pdf)

  GERMANY

Germany: 2013 Article IV Consultation – IMF

Germany: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation – IMF

German Stasis: In the Grips of Merkel's 'Lethargocracy' – Spiegel

The German economy may be doing well now, but significant challenges lurk in the near future. Chancellor Merkel, though, has succumbed to the torpor of her electorate and has shown no willingness to address badly needed reforms.

Merkel's European Failure: Germany Dozes on a Volcano – Spiegel

Angela Merkel's government is forcing Southern Europe to undertake profound reforms while at the same time denying its own responsibility for the consequences of its crisis policies. Germany is risking a historic failure with its shortsighted wrangling.

  U.K.

Carney and the death of unreasonable expectations – Coppola Comment

Bank of England Should Emulate Fed and Repeat Itself – A Lot – WSJ

BoE Announces 7% Unemployment-Linked "Forward Guidance", Credibility Questioned – ZH

Carney reveals forward guidance for BoE – Danske Bank (pdf)

'The MPC’s Forward Guidance' – Economist’s View

The MPC’s Forward Guidance – mainly macro

Guidance on forward guidance – Free exchange / The Economist

Mixed reaction – Buttonwood / The Economist

Carney should worry about why Britain is different – Reuters

Sterling’s path, now with guidance – alphaville / FT

  PIIGS

Europe’s bail-out programmes: What Angela isn’t saying – The Economist

Europe has already eased debt burdens on bailed-out economies by lowering interest rates on its loans and extending maturities. Greece is getting even more help, receiving for example central-bank profits from buying its bonds. But it is still not enough. That awkward truth, already apparent before the German election, will become manifest after it.

If You Think Europe Is Fine, Look at Italy – View / BB

Simon Johnson: Troubling as Italy’s public finances may be, they are not the main reason to be concerned. There is no magic threshold above which government debt will crush the economy, and countries have grown their way out of even larger debt burdens. The problem is that Italy is growing far too slowly and has been doing so for a long time.

Periphery Business Cycle Monitor – Danske Bank (pdf)

The tightening in sovereign spreads in the periphery since end of June is broadly in line with fundamentals.

UNITED STATES
The race to head the Federal Reserve: Summers v Yellen – The Economist

Shrinking US deficit update, and a new debt ceiling projection – alphaville / FT

Why is the U.S.’s 1 percent so much richer than everywhere else? – Wonkblog / WP

Here’s what Obama was really saying about the Fed appointment – Wonkblog / WP

ASIA

Achieving China’s Great Promise – iMFdirect

Managed well, these twin adjustments would allow China to prolong its economic miracle in a sustainable way, with a significant positive impact for the rest of the world.

Exclusive: China to let banks sell off loans in prelude to possible bailout – Reuters

China is developing a new trading platform to enable banks to sell off loans to a wider range of investors, in a move that could pave the way for a government bailout of lenders or distressed asset sales to private investors.

Austerity with Chinese Characteristics – Foreign Affairs

Why China's Belt-Tightening Has More To Do With Confucius Than Keynes

China’s Worst Nightmare Is Turning Japanese – View / BB

BOJ Beat: Five Takeaways From Kuroda News Conference – WSJ

Japan Index: A second setback for Abe’s experiment – Reuters

OTHER

The Definitive Fund Flows Heatmap: 10 Years Of Capital Flows – ZH

Why Stocks Aren’t Expensive, in One Chart – WSJ

Monetary policy: An unfinished revolution – The Economist

What Janet Yellen — And Everyone Else — Got Wrong – Krugman / NYT

Milton Friedman, Unperson – Krugman / NYT

More On The Disappearance Of Milton Friedman – Krugman / NYT

Conservative economic arguments since the crisis: A review – Noahpinion

Bringing economics back into fiscal policymaking – mainly macro

Is it possible to raise the inflation target? – mainly macro

A currency is anything that two people agree is a currency – John Kay

Forward guidance - the latest fad – TradingFloor

What is the point of forward guidance? The Fed started the trend, even the ECB has abandoned its own 'we never pre-commit' mantra and gone for it, and now the Old Lady hasn't been able to resist the peer group pressure to join the party.

The crackdown on bank misbehavior masks a troubling reality – Reuters

FINNISH

Raimo Sailas tylyttää hallitusta ylioptimismista – HS

Sailas: Suomi tarvitsee oikean hallituksen – IS

Valtiovarainministeriön entinen ykkösvirkamies Raimo Sailas roimii hallitusta päättämättömyydestä ja liiallisesta optimismista Kanava-lehden kolumnissaan.

Urpilainen: Taloustilanne niin paha, että rakenneuudistuksia aikaistettava – HS

Urpilainen: Uudistukset tulevat kirpaisemaan jokaista – TalSa

VATT:n Vartiainen: Suomella on kolme ongelmaa - kaksi omissa käsissä – YLE

Kaikissa muissa Pohjoismaissa vientiteollisuus määrää tahdin, sanoo Valtion taloudellisen tutkimuskeskuksen ylijohtaja Juhana Vartiainen.

Elvyttäjien elonkerjuu – Elina Lepomäki / US Puheenvuoro

Elvytys- ja uuvutustaistelua – Henri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Sammon Stadigh roimii poliitikkoja: Pitää hyväksyä, että Suomi köyhtyy – HS

Sampo-konsernin konsernijohtaja Kari Stadigh ei säästele sanojaan moittiessaan poliittisia päätöksentekijöitä. Päättäjät ovat hänen mukaansa pelkureita, jotka eivät uskalla kertoa ihmisille totuutta.

Yrityssaneerauksien määrä kasvoi alkuvuoden aikana 19,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus

Konkurssien määrä kasvoi alkuvuoden aikana 3,6% YoY – Tilastokeskus

Kilpailukyky ei parane tulosopimuksilla – Risto Pennanen / TalSa

Tulosopimus ei paranna kilpailukykyä, kun valmistetaan vääränlaisia tuotteita.

Suomella velkaa huolestuttavan paljon – IL

Asiantuntijat arvioivat Iltalehdelle valtiovarainministeriön tuoreen budjettiehdotuksen sisällön.

Suhdannekäänne parempaan lykkäytyy – EK

Suomi jo vaaravyöhykkeellä - ”Hallitusta tarkkaillaan” – Uusi Suomi

Suomen taloustilanne on vaarallinen – Mikael Jungner / US Puheenvuoro

Valtiovarainministeriön budjettiehdotus - verotulot kasvamassa 0,5 miljardia – YLE

Peruspalveluista leikataan 362 miljoonaa euroa – Verkkouutiset

Vastikkeellisella sosiaaliturvalla on pitkät perinteet – Simo Grönroos / US Puheenvuoro

Suhdanneongelmat vs rakenteelliset ongelmat (Suomen vaihevirhe) – Janne Suuronen / US Puheenvuoro

Miten Suomen talous nousee suosta? – Hannu Visti

Euroalueen nykyinen rahapolitiikka heikentää uudistusten tehoa ja tekee uudistuksista tarpeettoman vaikeita – Tyhmyri

Rakenneuudistus on hyvinvointiyhteiskunnan purkamista – Kai Nyman / Piksu

Byrokratiaa – Kemppinen

Teollisuustuotanto väheni kesäkuussa 5,7% YoY – Tilastokeskus

Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset kasvoivat kesäkuussa 2,2% YoY – Tilastokeskus

Raimo Ilaskivi vaatii hätätilahallitusta – IL

Uhkaako velka jo luottoluokitusta? "Suomella on turvatyyny" – TalSa

Onko Suomen luottoluokitus vaarassa, jos valtionvelka kasvaa 98 miljardiin budjettiehdotuksen mukaisesti? Ainakaan luottoluokitusyhtiö Moody'sin analyytikon mukaan huolta ei ole. Suomella on nimittäin "turvatyyny", jota ei monelta maalta löydy.

Pääkirjoitus: Parempi myöhään kuin ei milloinkaan – Pääkirjoitus / IS

Valtiovarainministeri Jutta Urpilainen (sd) ilmoitti tiistaina ministeriönsä sisäisen budjettiriihen yhteydessä haluavansa aikaistaa työllisyyttä ja tuottavuutta sekä työuria pidentäviä rakenneuudistuksia siten, että konkreettiset päätökset uudistuksista tehdään tämän vuoden aikana.

Hallitus taipumassa pakon edessä – Pääkirjoitus / ESS